The secret to not knowing very much is to admit that fact and research anything and everything to find the answers – or, like last week, make sure my predictions are way in advance so it was close to impossible for me to have any losing selections by the time I write this weeks little ditty!
I worry because the punting Gods don’t like a smart Alec (that’s the polite version), and every time I feel smug after some profits, it all seems to go horribly wrong the week after? Suffice to say, we had one horse racing bet which came off (a short priced win double paying almost 2/1), but a profit is a profit and more importantly, the football went exactly as I expected leaving anyone following my advice sitting pretty about now. England frankly laboured to another 1-0 win over Belgium and although a win is a win, they were hardly impressive and I see no reason why France are still trading as high as 2.6 with BETDAQ (we took 2.8) after they saw off Estonia 4-0 adding goals to their new found belief which I think make them a stand out bet, and I am almost tempted to go in again!
The football bets I have looked at this week involve top scorer prices and having backed Fernando Torres last week (assuming Spain go all the way of course), it may be best to look for some other value at a much bigger price? As an Everton fan I have been very impressed with Nikica Jelavic since he joined us from Rangers and when a player is in goal scoring form it would be rude to ignore him. BETDAQ odds of 48.0 are too generous to ignore and even the 7.4 in the place market has to be worth a point, though naturally all these bets depend on exactly how far his team go, and how many games he gets to score in!
With the tournament about to start (see you down the pub whenever possible!), many will expect a long list of matches and my predictions but it is so much akin to a game of chess in these tournaments that I am less than convinced I even have a clue! Value is still the name of the game, and I can’t see any just yet so we will focus on our ante post bets for now and let the tournament start to settle down before getting seriously involved.
Other sports take centre stage this week and although I could be wrong already by the time you read this (if so then you can’t place the bet so you can’t lose either), but I have been watching the tennis in my tablet (in my breaks, obviously), and have been more than a bit impressed by Rafa Nadal and had hoped to suggest him as a bet. Sorry BETDAQ layers but 1.38 is no fun at all, and I think the value call could yet be Roger Federer at BETDAQ odds of 13.5. Of course I could have it horribly wrong but with Djokovic looking off colour he only looks to have to beat Nadal to take the title here, and with inclement weather forecast (Federer is acknowledged everywhere I have looked as the master of windy conditions), a one point bet at that sort of price seems sensible if not guaranteed.
As we are stepping out of the comfort zone this week and being brave, I wonder if a short priced Rugby Union treble could yet pay a few bills? Ireland Wales and England are all in action this weekend and all look to have it all to do against New Zealand Australia and South Africa respectively, and as I am not willing to be patriotic when it comes to cash I am willing to oppose them all! BETDAQ odds of 1.06, 1.6 and 1.38 won’t make us rich overnight but they do add up to over 5/4 according to my maths (2.34 in BETDAQ terms), and do look as near to certainties as you can get with home advantage and a very partisan crowd.
Golf come next in my mixed bag and my small white ball loving friend insists that Charles Howell III is massively overpriced on BETDAQ at odds of 44.0 and is worth a small each way bet in a sport I admit I cannot predict. Luckily, he sits watching everything there is and is a statistics nut, which seems to help him (if not me), so who am I to argue. He tied for third here last year (apparently, what do I know), and likes the course and if he can get off to a solid start (only parred the first round in 2011 which may well have cost him), and a small each way bet could well be the best way forward this week in the St Judes classic from Memphis Tennessee.
Finally, by now you should all know I just have to partake of a small bet on the horses if the opportunity arises, but it isn’t really the best weekend to get too involved. Risky is the name of this game I am sorry to say but I will have a point on Ask Dad in the Newmarket opener at 1.45pm – despite the fact he has never raced before. A full brother to both the 103 rated Khawatim and the 104 rated Tell Dad, who both ran well first time out (one won, the other a narrow second), he has plenty to live up to if he is to uphold the family honour, but as Richard Hannon trained the better of the pair, he should know all the family traits and I am hopeful of a winning start with Richard Hughes in the saddle doing the steering.
This week’s suggested bets (odds correct at the time of writing):
1pt Win ROGER FEDERER to win the French Open 2012 at BETDAQ odds of 13.5
Half point each way CHARLES HOWELL III St Judes Classic Memphis at BETDAQ odds of 48.0 to win and 9.5 to place.
1pt Win ASK DAD 1.45pm Newmarket Saturday.
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