DAQMAN NAP WINS AT 9-4: Daqman landed winning nap number seven this year, Taxiformissbyron (WON 9-4), in the Betdaq Casino Games Handicap at Kempton last night, putting his best bet in profit for 2013 to the tune of six points overall.
27 POINTS UP ON THE DAY: He also named the one-two, Magical Kingdom (WON 4-1) and El Massivo (2nd 5-1), in the Back And Lay At betdaq.com Maiden.
IT’S MAGIC ON BETDAQ: That race was magical in that the BETDAQ offers for the race totalled a punter-friendly 102% some 15 minutes before the race (SP Total percent 115, as reported in the Racing Post this morning).
EVERYONE’S A WINNER: All Daqman’s special bets are now in profit: the nap by 6.70; his jackpot bets by 25.20, his lays by 20.00 and his horses to follow by 08.30.
2.25 Gowran Park (Galmoy Hurdle) Bog Warrior’s victims of his last two starts, Wise Oscar and Solwhit, have both trotted up since and, if this were 2m 4f, it would for many punters seem to be a question of going down and coming back.
But it’s 3m. In the mud. The same cloud hangs over Un Beau Matin, but Zaidpour has youth and the trip on his side. Unfortunately, he’s also got the weight on his back, penalized for Grade-1 success.
Should Zaidpour win this, he’ll give a tremendous boost to my World Hurdle bet Monksland, who beat him at Leopardstown.
If the markets are right, Monksland (9.0 on BETDAQ for the World Hurdle) – and therefore Zaidpour – must be considered way ahead of Bog Warrior (trading at 16.0).
But, if Bog Warrior wins, he could become a World Hurdle hope at a very short price, rivaling the favourite, Quevega. I’ll take that route, having already bagged 11.0 Monksland for Cheltenham.
It’s impossible to split Bog Warrior (1.96) and Zaidpour (2.4) today as I write and, if I’m taking sides, I prefer to try for another position in the punter-friendly 92% (yes, underround!) BETDAQ ante-post book for Cheltenham and take 15.0 Bog Warrior to beat the World.
There’s always plenty of room in the market place for me to reconsider, depending on today’s result, and follow Bog Warrior if he switches disciplines and goes for the Ryanair instead.
If he didn’t have a touch of temperament he’d be as versatile as Big Buck’s, He just needs to get that 3m.
3.25 Gowran Park (Thyestes Chase) We’re still waiting for the hat-trick to happen. In 2004 and 2005 the Thyestes winners, Hedgehunter and Numbersixvalverde, both went on to win the Grand National.
In hindsight, their weights (10st 2lb and 10st 5lb) made them sensational bets at 100-30 and 8-1 respectively in today’s race. The same age and weights area still hold good.
Only one winner has been of a double-figure age and only one has carried more than 10st 10lb. Hedgehunter was the only winning favourite in the decade. All bar one had already scored at 23 furlongs or more.
If you are a stats fan, you therefore have seven qualifiers, of which Outlaw Pete, Murchu and Panther Claw seemingly stand out on all known form.
My concern about the morning favourite, Outlaw Pete, is that he’s been concentrating on the cross-country discipline; this may have changed him mentally.
And this is not the sort of race in which you want to take a short price: SPs at 16-1 (twice) and 20-1 (twice) have happened in the last six seasons.
Outlaw Pete is 7lb worse off with Murchu who finished in front of him on today’s course in October, and it works out that Murchu has 22lb with which to turn around a 10 lengths or so deficit with Tarquinius at Fairyhouse.
But, if you ignore the banks races, Outlaw Pete will have just a pound more than when he ran out, leading at the last, in the Cork National. There is no value left in him because of the Pricewise lemmings, so I’ll take him as my stakes saver.
Murchu must be the remaining value at 18.5 on BETDAQ, as I write. That was a stunning win-and-place wager in a 109% list in the orange.
Coyningham Cup winner Panther Claw stays forever and should be in the threes off a featherweight. I’m just worried about his lack of experience but he’s the only Gigginstown runner.
Bishopsfurze represents class and is the sole contender for Willie Mullins, who usually makes a blanket bid at these prizes. The verdict must be Murchu to beat Panther Claw, Bishopsfurze and Outlaw Pete.
BET 3.4pts win HIPSTER (3.15 Lingfield)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 3.3pts win PANTHER CLAW, 1.7pts win and place MURCHU and 1.1pts win (stakes saver) OUTLAW PETE (3.25 Gowran Park)
BET 11pts win (nap) HOLY WARRIOR (5.35 Kempton)
BET 2.6pts win and place MACK’S SISTER (7.35 Kempton)
ANTE-POST: WIN-30 JACKPOT: 2.1pts win BOG WARRIOR (World Hurdle)
* Daqman’s bets are staked to win 20 points unless raised to jackpot level.
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