DAQMAN 51, PRICEWISE 19: Daqman and Pricewise finished 1-2 in the big-field handicap at Galway yesterday, taking the Flat-season score in their challenge match to 51-19. Daqman hit form for Goodwood with the nap, Oasis Mirage (WON 5-4).
BETDAQ 7, BOOKMAKERS 0: Betdaq offers for Goodwood in the orange this morning added up to less – three of them were 101, 104 and 108% – than last year’s Total SP of 126%, 122 (twice), 120, 119, 117 and 113%.
HANNONS 9, JOHNSTON 6: As Daqman revealed yesterday, Team Hannon is 9-6 up on Mark Johnston on Goodwood’s opening day over the last 10 years. Third best, Luca Cumani. Let battle commence!
MAGIC START FOR FANSHAWE
1.55 Goodwood Mark Johnston’s returns from this are 1410410 since 2006 but it’s the first time he’s run three in the race. Busatto is his least likely winner: he has disappointed off a higher mark since winning on firm ground in May.
Sennockian Star had Rosebery winner Salutation a long way last at Epsom in the Spring and was set to give him 10lb in June (3lb today).
Salutation is much shorter here after his attempt to make all (over 1m 4f) at Royal Ascot was thwarted only by Arab Spring but that winner failed to go on from there and those behind were losers.
Cameron Highland is another front-runner. He seems to have been laid out for this after seven races in the Pattern, and was successful on a similar undulating switchback track at Epsom.
After Salutation’s good run in the Duke Of Edinburgh, Sea Shanty was fourth in the Royal Hunt Cup. I think he’ll get today’s extra trip on this course and in the conditions, and is preferred by Richard Hughes to last year’s winner, Viewpoint.
Local horse Blue Surf has a chance of reversing Epsom form with Stomachion but prefers some cut in the ground and was only eighth last year.
Blue Surf and Sennockian Star were well behind James Fanshawe’s Magic Hurricane at Haydock and he is clear of Salutation on a line through Arab Spring.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: The ever-improving Magic Hurricane (9.0 on BETDAQ this morning) is my choice of the rails runners, if he can get out and enjoy a trouble-free passage. High numbers in the draw (13, 17, 9, 15 and 16) have dominated in the last six years; the only winner drawn low had managed to switch to the outside.
From 13, 15, 16 and 18, Stomachion, Cameron Highland, Salutation and the lightly raced Ajman Bridge look a formidable quartet, with Sea Shanty (9) in the mix but with his stamina tested from that stall. Cameron Highland was massive on BETDAQ at 33.0.
2.30 Goodwood (Molecomb Stakes) This has become a Hannon benefit – 11441 since 2009 – and Beacon was a shade of odds on this morning after turning over the favourite, Mukhmal (now hooded) at Sandown, after Mukhmal’s Royal Ascot sixth to the Hannons’ Baitha Alga.
The value is Fast Act at 18.5, if he has recovered from his recent excellent effort behind Tiggy Wiggy in the Super Sprint at Newbury, albeit Tiggy is also trained Hannon. I shall leave an evens requirement in the orange about Beacon as a stakes saver but I’m not inclined to maximum stakes.
One reason is that the Hannons won it with their outsider last year and Dougal is not out of it: I watched him on TV (‘chewing-gum for the eyes, Ted’) dead-heat with the Coventry Stakes fourth at Newmarket in the Spring.
3.05 Goodwood (Lennox Stakes) Three-year-olds dominate, winning five years out of the last seven from 17 runners, and the race favourite is on a four-timer.
It seems a long time since Toormore beat The Grey Gatsby in the Craven and he ran flat in the Guineas and took a fierce hold at Royal Ascot. But what can beat him?
Stablemate Anjaal was 13 lengths adrift in the Craven and, unless there is rain, last year’s winner Garswood will not be as effective, though first-time visors could give him a lift.
More of a threat may be Amarillo, if he could reproduce his Group-3 win last year at Haydock (firm) and second to the fabulous Moonlight Cloud, both at this time of year. Amarillo was big at 11.0 on BETDAQ, win and place, with eight left in at the time of writing. Place nap
3.40 Goodwood Luca Cumani is overdue for a win in a race he scored three out of four between 2004-8 (his figures are 112100). Eight winners in the decade have carried 9st 4lb or more, including all three of those he trained.
Cumani has Havana Cooler here, tied in with top handicappers running in the opener: he was third when Arab Spring beat Salutation in the Duke Of Edinburgh (Continuum behind) at Royal Ascot and sixth in the Old Newton Cup on soft (Magic Hurricane third).
Havana Cooler has raced just twice this year – seven times in his life – and, drawn out in 13, should go well from the back, as he did when third at this meeting last year.
Wherever Havana Cooler is, Dashing Star should be – they have finished in the first five together three times – though both are around a stone higher than their winning marks.
Repeater (2nd), Noble Silk (4th) and Van Percy (9th) finished in that order in the Pitman’s Derby (Big Thunder well back) but I’d take Van Percy out of the trio for this race on firm ground. He was very effective on it at Newmarket in the Spring.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: An incredible orange! Almost a level playing field at 101%, meaning what goes into the pot comes out but, most important, suggesting that whatever horse you back is a fair-deal wager.
The value, when compared with the array of bookmakers on Oddschecker is the 12.5 Big Thunder (17-2 in a place with the bookies), with Sir Mark Prescott finally hitting form. Havana Cooler should be involved in the finish.
4.50 Goodwood I could play in a 104% ‘book’ of offers in the orange this morning, whereas the bookies contrived to return a Total SP of 126% for the race a year ago. Value or what!
William Knight, a small trainer who works his season around Goodwood – he won this in 2006 – has Sec et Art and Maverik in the top half of the handicap (9 winners out of 10 have carried 9st 3lb or more). Maverik is well drawn to to go with the pace and 23.0 was way too big.
6.40 Galway Stall 10 and lower win this on decent ground. When Declan McDonough scored on Vastonea in 2012, he only just held Pintura, who was 1-33 in running!
Pintura was placed again at the festival last year and McDonogh switches to him now, hoping for ground on the easy side of good.
Third at the meeting last year for Mick Halford, Defining Year, also drawn low, and switched to Dermot Weld, could be involved, blinkered for the first time.
Jack’s Revenge is hard to win with, but Joseph O’Brien has a try here, and he ran a blinder, fifth in the Buckingham Palace at Royal Ascot. I took 10.0 ‘Jack’, 18.0 Pintura and a saver Defiining Year
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points, except Amarillo and Galway)
BET 3.75pts win MAGIC HURRICANE, and 1pt win and place CAMERON HIGHLAND (1.55 Goodwood)
BET 1.7pts win and place FAST ACT, and 3.4pts (stakes saver) BEACON (2.30 Goodwood)
BET (win 20) 2pts win and 10pts place (nap) AMARILLO (3.05 Goodwood)
BET 6pts win HAVANA COOLER and 2.5pts win and place BIG THUNDER (3.40 Goodwood)
BET 1.3pts win and place MAVERIK (4.50 Goodwood)
BET (win 20) 2.2pts win JACK’S REVENGE, 1.1pts win and place PINTURA and 0.75pts win (stakes saver on the two) DEFINING YEAR (6.40 Galway)
You can now follow BETDAQ updates on Google+
For further details – CLICK HERE
£25 NO LOSE FREE BET
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.