The FedEx Cup playoffs are drawing to a close, as only 70 players remain for this week’s BMW Championship and only 30 will advance to next week’s Tour Championship, where the eventual winner will be given more money than some small countries generate in a year.
I’m on record with my distaste for these contrived “playoffs”, but as a golf enthusiast it’s tough to be too upset about seventy of the world’s best players teeing it up at a great golf course, which in this case is the Tom Fazio-designed Conway Farms, situated just outside Chicago.
This event was last held at Conway Farms two years ago and Zach Johnson took home the trophy, though Jim Furyk stole some of the headlines with a 2nd-round 59. The fact that Johnson won and Furyk also excelled (he would go on to finish third) should tell you all you need to know about the course: length off the tee is not a requirement for success, but accuracy off the tee most definitely is and players must be smart about how they attack the hole locations, as there’s some trickery around the greens.
Jason Day (9.2) is the current favorite at BETDAQ, and that’s certainly understandable considering his recent form and the fact that he tied for 4th in this event back in 2013– which, again, was the last time it was held at Conway Farms. Day is followed by Rory McIlroy (11.0), Jordan Spieth (13.0), and Henrik Stenson (13.0), but what’s really tempting are all the big names attached to long odds, which is to be expected in this sort of tournament but is still a bit jarring. How often do you get to back Sergio, for instance, at 62.0, or Mickelson at 112.0? How about Poulter at 235.0, or Jimmy Walker at 192.0? Not only are all those men capable, they’re still among the very best in the world. Throwing a couple of bucks at a few longshots may not be a bad idea…
Of course, “throwing” money at players is just about all I can do lately, as I’ve been badly out of form in recent weeks. Like Jordan Spieth, though, I feel rejuvenated after the “bye”, and I’m optimistic about our prospects this week. Here are my favorite bets on the board:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Matt Kuchar (36.0)- After a disappointing season Kuchar has finally turned it around, notching three top-10s in his last five starts and shooting 72 or better in 25 of his past 26 competitive rounds. Conway Farms seems perfectly suited for him, and indeed he showed flashes of greatness the last time he saw the course, firing a 3rd-round 61 in this event back in 2013 (eventually finishing 24th). He hasn’t won in awhile but I strongly suspect he’ll be in contention this week, making him a must-bet at the current price.
Louis Oosthuizen (62.0)- Oosthuizen is coming off a strong performance at the Deutsche Bank Championship, where he finished 12th, and he’s had a week off to rest his sore back, so I don’t see any reason why he can’t contend at Conway Farms, a course that plays to his strengths. Is it a coincidence that Oosthuizen and Zach Johnson seem to play well at the same places (i.e.- this year’s Open, Augusta National, etc.)? Reminder: Johnson prevailed at Conway Farms in 2013; Oosthuizen was not in the field that week.
Danny Lee (76.0)- Lee has emerged this year as a world-class player and, with the exception of his missed cut at the Open, he really hasn’t slowed down since his win at the Greenbrier in early July. Even his performance at the Deutsche Bank two weeks ago, where he finished a mediocre 33rd, was much better than it appears at first glance, as Lee played beautiful golf for three rounds before coming unraveled with a 77 on Sunday. Greatness is within Lee’s grasp– he touches it at times– and a breakthrough win this week would do wonders for his career, obviously. Don’t be surprised if he pulls it off.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Jim Furyk (1.91) vs. Dustin Johnson (1.91)
Johnson may be a better player than Furyk on a week-in, week-out basis, but Conway Farms is the type of place Furyk routinely carves up– as he did in 2013– and I wouldn’t bet against the wily old vet this week. Putting the ball in the fairway is not one of Johnson’s strengths (he’s 175th on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy), and it’s a top priority on this golf course. Recommendation: Furyk at 1.91
Brandt Snedeker (1.91) vs. Matt Jones (1.91)
Snedeker has hit a bit of a rough patch, as he missed the cut at the Barclays and finished 44th in the Deutsche Bank to find himself on the verge of being eliminated from these playoffs. Jones, meanwhile, finished 4th at the Deutsche Bank two weeks ago and seems to feel comfortable at Conway Farms, notching a top-10 in this event two years ago. Recommendation: Jones at 1.91
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