Rafael Nadal (3) vs David Ferrer (4)

Fourteen days ago I suggested either Roger Federer or David Ferrer would advance from their half of the draw to meet the imperious Rafael Nadal in the Roland Garros semi final and sure enough, that is what’s happened. Without dropping a set, 25/1 column pick David Ferrer has swept all before him to reach his maiden grand slam final. Defeat to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga on Friday would have seen Ferrer match Tim Henman’s record of losing his first six major semi finals. Fortunately for Ferrer, he was in no mood for hanging around and dispatched Tsonga in straight sets. One could see post-match what reaching the French Open final meant to David Ferrer, calling it ‘a dream’ to have reached the final of the tournament that means so much to him. Unfortunately for Ferrer, the hard work hasn’t even begun!

Rafael Nadal beat Novak Djokovic in Friday’s first semi final and it was a match that had absolutely everything, drama, intensity, tension, and genuinely incredible shot-making. A 9-7 victory in the final set for Nadal looked unlikely when trailing 4-2 but his ‘never say die’ attitude and his ability to choose the right shot and execute it when the pressure is at its peak is nothing short of extraordinary and generally only rivalled by the man who happened to be standing at the opposite end of the court.

ferrer350Sunday’s final will be an all-Spanish affair for the fourth time and David Ferrer doesn’t come into the match without a chance. At the time of writing, the 1.13 price about Nadal looks to suggest the third seed should have no trouble in defending his title and making it an eighth Roland Garros success in the last nine years. I hope that doesn’t prove to be the case. If we look at Nadal’s record in Paris finals, he’s dropped a set in 5 of the 7 matches which offers hope to Ferrer. The weather also looks to be slightly different to Rafa’s last two matches with temperatures down a few degrees and showers predicted, another factor that could play to the strengths of Ferrer. Back in 2004, 40/1 Gaston Gaudio defeated Guillermo Coria to win his first (and only) grand slam and that happened to be one of my first major wagers on tennis. A victory for Ferrer tomorrow would certainly top that. Obviously 25/1 is a little shorter but upon investigation, Gaudio was around the 3.65 mark whereas Ferrer currently trades around the 8.2 mark which looks absolutely enormous. There’s no doubting that Nadal is the best current clay court player on the planet and if he plays his best, he wins. It’s as simple as that.

In terms of head-to-head’s for the pair, we’ll concentrate on 2013. Their general record is tipped heavily in Nadal’s favour with 19 wins to 4 and their first match of this year was a demolition for Rafa in Acapulco 6-0 6-2 which made the tennis world sit up and take notice of Nadal’s comeback, such was the devastating nature of the victory. Their next two matches in Madrid and Rome (also won by Nadal) were far closer and in all truth, Ferrer had chances to win both. He could have quite easily won in straight sets in Rome, only to lose the second set tie break and subsequently capitulate in the decider, failing to win a single game. Not to be discouraged, Ferrer had another crack at Nadal in Rome and again appeared to have taken control when levelling the match at one set apiece, only to be put in his place once again by his compatriot. The signs certainly point to a Nadal victory, although Ferrer is adept on a clay court and more than capable of getting Rafa on the ropes which would make for exciting (and profitable) viewing.

In terms of what I plan to do with my pre-tournament Ferrer bet, I expect I’ll hold fire and hope he isn’t overawed by the occasion and can pinch a set, at which point I’ll attempt to balance my book and maximise my profit. I’d dearly love Ferrer to get the win but in reality, a set is perhaps the best he can hope for. He owes this column nothing having pocketed us enough over the last eighteen months. If he can remain competitive for as long as possible against Rafa, he can walk out of Paris and head to London with his head held high. In my view, he’ll probably succumb in four tough sets and it’ll be Rafael Nadal who reigns supreme once again at the French Open.

Selection: Rafael Nadal @ 1.13
Score: 3-1 @ 3.25


Follow Chris on Twitter @cdquinn86


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