DAY 5: COUNTDOWN TO THE ARC: SPECTACULAR NOVELLIST: This is Daqman’s final ‘match race’ in his five-day Arc series. Today sees ‘spectacular’ Novellist rated in front of Treve on the balance of form. Now look out for his summing up on Sunday, taking the going and the draw into account.
TARGET 200 POINTS THIS WEEKEND: Daqman goes into three days of top racing 142 points up in the last 10 days: on six days he’s won, two he’s lost narrowly and two have been breakeven. He targets a 200-points profit.
NOW FOR THIRD BIG-RACE SUCCESS: He also attempts his third weekend big-race winner in a row after Educate (WON 8-1, Cambridgeshire) and Highland Colori (WON 20-1, Ayr Gold Cup).
COUNTDOWN TO THE ARC: NOVELLIST 9, TREVE 7
Unbeaten both, but is one of them unbeatable? Novellist comes to the Arc with five straight wins – unbeaten this year – since he lost out 13 months ago at Baden-Baden to the 2011 Arc winner, Danedream. Treve hasn’t lost a race in her life, four in a row.
But Treve’s is a very short racing CV, just four appearances, better for every race but so inexperienced that she was 11-1 against, not ‘expected’, for the Prix De Diane.
That she won four lengths had some critics wowed but others saying: ok, exciting, but French 1,000 Guineas winner, Flotilla (8th), must have had an off day and a 25-1 English maiden, Chicquita, was second.
Some maiden! In the manner of Treve, Chicquita herself then stepped several rungs at a time up the ladder, taking the Irish Oaks ahead of Venus De Milo, who would subsequently be runner-up to The Fugue in the Yorkshire Oaks.
That put Treve and The Fugue close together and, while The Fugue went on to slam Al Kazeem in the Irish Champion Stakes, Treve continued to strengthen her form by taking the Prix Vermeille, her rise and rise now in step with 2008 Arc-winning-filly Zarkava.
Novellist’s year has been even more spectacular. The big grand prix at Baden Baden, in which the Longchamp hero of 2011, Danedream, had dwarfed him, became his own 12 months later.
On the way, he dismissed Melbourne Cup winner Dunaden in the Saint-cloud grand prix, and 34 days later reached the peak of his improvement.
Novellist won our King George from a field containing five with Group-1 pots on the shelf, and had the Irish Derby winner, Trading Leather, five lengths away in second.
Trading Leather would then be beaten by less, a length and a quarter and two lengths by The Fugue and Al Kazeem in that Irish Champion Stakes. That takes us full circle, so what do we know from all this collateral form?
Well, if this were an ordinary conditions event on an open track, we’d say the probable result is there for all to see but it’s a race of the highest quality, containing improvers of the Classic generation who may not yet have reached their potential and who will be meeting older horses weight for age, both sides hampered by a pronounced draw bias.
How to rate Novellist and Treve? As it stands, on Treve’s four in a row, and Novellist’s nine out of 11, without any draw bias or going concerns taken into account, it has to be..
DAQMAN’S MATCH VERDICT: Novellist 9, Treve 7. OFFICIAL RATINGS: Novellist (approx) 127, Treve (approx.) 123
TODAY’S RACING: MODERN TUTOR THE ASCOT NAP
2.00 Ascot Common Touch, not disgraced in a big-field handicap over today’s CD in July, is 7lb lower here, and acts on almost any surface.
The six-year-old Myboyalfie is also down in the weights, and additionally has Oisin Murphy’s 5lb claim. He had back-to-back success on the soft at this time last season.
The three-year-old front is led by Footstepsintherain but hehas winning form only on a man-made surface and the sire’s progeny doesn’t want it too soft.
Yourartisonfire comes down from Yorkshire, dropped to class 4 for the first time in a year, but has won only very-small-field races and has struggled in and out of a visor – costly losing favourite at Chester – since a class-3 success in the summer.
Turning to BETDAQ for help in an open contest, I thought Common Touch looked ‘wrong’ at 14.0 this morning, with Kieren Fallon booked.
2.30 Ascot Three-year-olds are 100% in the short history of this race, and both Gworn and Tinghir may be helped by dropping back to today’s trip.
But I find it hard to get away from Modern Tutor, who was thereabouts at the finish when upped two grades last time out, and is by the soft-ground sire Selkirk. Lightly raced and looks a Stoute late developer.
3.05 Ascot There has been no success in this for horses carrying above 9st 2lb since way back but that may change this year, because the draw is paramount.
In the last decade, only two winners (from gates 7 and 10) have been drawn higher than 5, with 2, 3 (twice), 4 (three times) and 5 being responsible for seven first prizes.
Today’s card has those drawn 2, 3 and 5 racing off 9st 1lb or higher with, lower down the handicap, the one stall rarely considered – it is so often a rails trap – and all eyes, therefore, on Blessington from gate 4.
At least, mine are, with John Gosden and Nicky Mackay as trainer and jockey. Blessington (8.6 on BETDAQ as I write) is sure to have been well prepared for this return to the track.
Those in the first six behind him at Goodwood in July 2012 have won eight races and they included the Group-2 winner Garswood.
The grey Lucky Beggar and Birdman were behind Garswood in the Free Handicap in the Spring but Lucky Beggar has won when dropped back to today’s trip and Birdman can be forgiven his defeat raised to a Listed.
On a line through Secretinthepark, Breton Rock and Ninjago ought to beat Lucky Beggar, with Ninjago (8.2 offers this morning) the better drawn.
3.40 Ascot (Noel Murless Stakes) It would be a modest boost to St Leger winner Leading Light’s Arc hopes if Great Hall could win this, 15 lengths off him at Doncaster.
Whereas Great Hall had won a class-2 handicap before climbing into the pattern, Greatwood was beaten at the same handicap level dropped down from his Group efforts.
But Greatwood was the ‘moral’ that day (1m 4f, also at Doncaster) when beaten only a neck, giving 4lb to the winner.
Howeever, Shwaiman probably beats both Great Hall and Greatwood for Doncaster form, winner over today’s equivalent trip in the Mallard on firmish ground, then favourite when runner-up to subsequent Group-3 winner, Camborne, on the soft, again 1m 6f plus.
Dark Crusader won the lower-level Ebor, the Melrose Stakes at York, and Dabadiyan’s connections are bullish, though the ground seems to have gone against this summer hat-trick scorer.
Connections think a lot of Refectory but that is not the way it looks in the BETDAQ market this morning. He’s drifted like a lonely dog on a raft, over my betting weir at 25.0. Shwaiman (7.8) for me.
4.15 Ascot (Gordon Carter Stakes) Three of the last four winners had CVs of only five or six races, and aged three or four are six in a row. Add those stats together and you get Perfect Heart (7.2 offers) and Ballinderry Boy (4.6).
I particularly like the look of Ballinderry Boy, with that master claimer Oisin Murohy bringing his weight down a stone below threequarters of the other runners.
DAQMAN’S BETS (each to win 20 points)
BETS 2.7pts win MYBOYALFIE, and 1.5pts win and place COMMON TOUCH (2.00 Ascot)
BET 7.6pts win (nap) MODERN TUTOR (2.30 Ascot)
BETS 2.6pts win on each BLESSINGTON and NINJAGO (3.05 Ascot)
BET 3pts win and place SHWAIMAN (3.40 Ascot)
BETS 5.5pts win BALLINDERRY BOY and 3.2pts win PERECT HEART (4.15 Ascot)
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