NOW FOR A SCORE OF BREEDERS CUP WINNERS: It’s the greatest racing show on earth, with $37m up for grabs on firm (turf) and fast (dirt) ground in California. European raiders had their biggest win haul of six on tonight’s track, Santa Anita, in 2006, and Daqman reckons they can hit three over the weekend – two of them tonight – and bring their total to 20 in five years.

POUNDS IN IT FOR YOU WHEN PENNY DROPS: Daqman pounced on the 8.4 Penny Drops on BETDAQ for this afternoon at Newmarket, where he found the majority of races big value for money, with percentages massively better than the likely SP Totals.


BREEDERS’ CUP DAY-1 NAP: IT’S THE ‘EVER’ READY GARY STEVENS

8.45 Santa Anita (Breeders’ Cup Marathon) This ‘dirt St Leger’ is the weakest division for home-trained horses, since it is as far as any American wants to go but well short of a marathon to European eyes.

The only ‘win and you’re in’ qualifier is Ever Rider for his Buenos Aires victory in the Classico General Belgrano, the race which provided the subsequent Marathon winner last year, Calidoscopio, for the same stable.

England’s hopes of sinking the Belgrano winner rest with London Bridge, who is only class-4 level in handicaps at home but will be ridden by Mike Smith, who has a record 17 Breeders Cup events on his CV, and the five-year-old grey entire is by the stallion, Arch, a top dirt performer himself.

Smith has been briefed to make all the running and teach the Yanks a lesson in stamina. He may well do so, but the Argentine Ever Rider is also a catch-me-if-you-can player and his partner, Gary Stevens, needs no lessons from Smith.

The comeback veteran, who won the Preakness this year at the age of 50, has eight Breeders’ Cup trophies on the shelf, and taught an all-star international cast how to ride the Shergar Cup at Ascot when he raised his UK win record to 50.

* DAQMAN’S VERDICT: This is unlikely to involve the American horses and Canada’s Pool Play is past his prime, while our class-4 handicapper, London Bridge, looks dwarfed by the Group-2 trial winner, Ever Rider, coming from the South American camp that won last year: the 5.8 on BETDAQ this morning seemed super value.

9.25 Santa Anita (Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf; colts and geldings) John Gosden and Aidan O’Brien – two each – have blasted a hole in the US defence since 2008, with only Todd Fletcher getting a slice of the million-dollar American pie three years ago.

Ballydoyle is back for more with Giovanni Boldini, American bred by War Front, sire of War Command and of the International winner, Declaration Of War, a Breeders’ Cup Classic contender tomorrow. Giovanni is two out of two on Ireland’s Polytrack surface at Dundalk.

Fletcher has the same stallion’s Bashart, the ‘moral’ when switched from turf to Polytrack at Keeneland last month, beaten a length but giving 4lb to the winner.

Bashart now meets that winner, Poker Player, on level terms, with third and fourth, Bon Accord and All Cash, badly in now. On collateral form, Bobby’s Kitten is close up to Bashart, having slammed All Cash nearly six lengths at Saratoga in August, and he is in gate 5 to Bashart’s wide 13. Poker Player is also done no favours in 11.

England’s hope, Outstrip, couldn’t quicken off the soft surface in the Dewhurst Stakes recently but still managed third to War Command, who was winning his fourth race out of five and, early on in the season, got to the shoulder of Toormore at Goodwood.

Giovanni Boldini and Outstrip are level peggings on 114 each on English official ratings, with another Ballydoyle colt, Wilshire Boulevard, on 110.

* DAQMAN’S VERDICT: The home contingent seems all of a heap, with not much to separate them except the draw, with Bobby’s Kitten best positioned. His prominence in the market allows me to back Giovanni Boldini at 4.6, with a saver on Outstrip, whose dam was a star of American racing on any surface.

10.05 Santa Anita (Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile) Verrazano is unbeaten in five starts up to 9f, defeated only when asked to take in two 10f races.

Holy Lute is lightly raced but is a dozen lengths adrift of Verrazano on a line through Power Broker and, though ultra consistent, Pants On Fire (beat Hymn Book at Monmouth Park and Taptowne at Churchill Downs) is running in his first Grade 1 tonight.

Central Intelligence easily won the Hollywood qualifier for this, the Grade-1 Triple Bend Handicap over 7f, but there’s a doubt about him staying the mile.

However, he’s better than his sixth of seven in a Santa Anita sprint when the runner-up was Goldencents, who himself had fared better over 7f at Del Mar, albeit caught close home by Fed Biz.

* DAQMAN’S VERDICT: The New Jersey star Verrazano has won from the front and he’s won from behind, with a wide gate in 10 no problem for a colt who can be put anywhere and has scored over further (1m 1f).

10.50 Santa Anita (Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf) This is tonight’s big chance for European racing, with a top trio of raiders: Cheveley Park winner, Vorda, the Fillies’ Mile surprise, Chriselliam, and lightly-raced Rockfel heroine Al Thakhira.

They face winners of the recognized trials for this, Kitten Caboodle from the Jessamine Stakes at Keeneland, Kentucky, and Testa Rossi from the Miss Grillo Stakes at Belmont, New York.

Clenor, daughter of Oratorio, Irish sire of International Cup winner Military Attack, completed a hat–trick over the Santa Anita course and distance earlier this month.

My Conquestadory has beaten the colts in Canada and is a striking individual. She is a big offer at 7.6 because of her wide gate, though her victory when brought across the border to Kentucky was from an equally ‘impossible’ position.

This is a Guineas turn-out by the European raiders and tiny but voracious Vorda has her chance of a ‘Classic’ success here on the tight turns, whereas Chriselliam will be better suited to the real thing at Newmarket.

* DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Vorda (5.4 on BETDAQ this morning) met her only defeat by an American in the Morny but that was one of their colts and, with the American fillies having to cope with the Lasix ban today, I would go for a European one-two via Chriselliam, though I worry about the tight turns and that her Fillies’ Mile was slow run.

In the shadow of them all is My Conquestadory (7.6), whom you can expect to see flying at them at the finish from her outside draw.

11.35 Santa Anita (Breeders’ Cup Distaff) An open race, which means you’ll get the same fabulous value listing from BETDAQ; in fact, showing a total 105%, as I write.

Royal Delta bids for a hat-trick but the Kentucky Oaks (Churchill Downs) and American Oaks (Saratoga) winner Princess Of Sylmar has been supplemented to the tune of $100,000 dollars after beating her at Belmont Park in September.

* DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Both Princess Of Sylmar and Beholder have progressed on different routes since they were separated by half a length at Churchill Downs in May but, on a line through Authenticity, Royal Delta is now the one the Princess has to beat. I think she will.


NEWMARKET THIS AFTERNOON: OISIN MURPHY BECKONS A BET

There’s massive value for money on BETDAQ at Newmarket. Five races were showing 105-107% this morning, when I checked out the offers in the orange. Yet these same races paid out 118-121% (SP Total) a year ago.

1.40 Wetherby Horses aged four and five dominate this (7 out of 8); after all they will be five and six in a couple of months time, and older animals struggle to show the necessary speed in 2m hurdles on ground which had not turned soft when I checked this morning.

Pippa Greene would be a false favourite. He’s won only once and that when fresh but was ‘too fresh’ after another long absence and has a heap of ground to make up on Tidal Way (6.6 on BETDAQ).

Mojolika is a massive price at offers of 22.0, finding the ground too firm, the company too hot (class 2) and the trip too far at Market Rasen.

He’d won back-to-back novice hurdles on an easier surface at Carlisle and Tim Easterby is a trainer to be reckoned with in handicaps.

2.00 Newmarket (Bosra Sham Fillies Stakes) Is there anything here that could challenge the Santa Anita raiders, Vorda, Chriselliam and Al Thakhira?

The news the American party Expect to hear is for James Doyle’s eponymous mount, runner-up to Al Thakhira at Yarmouth, a soft-ground exercise which promotes Expect’s chance this afternoon.

Fig Roll is the only Group performer so far but looks well exposed and has ground fears on today’s surface, her best result being fourth to Lucky Kristale on firm at Newmarket. As ‘the best mover I have ridden’ (quote unquote Richard Hughes) the mud is a big worry.

Cape Factor’s five-lengths defeat of Berrahri at Yarmouth on soft looks good if you judge it on Berrahri’s earlier third to Kingston Hill but not on his subsequent 12-lengths 10th of 13 at Kempton Park. Mixed messages or what!

I was tempted by the 8.4 Penny Drops on BETDAQ this morning. She was unable to get a run when third to the powerful Night Of Thunder at Goodwood but it was good education and an eye-opening effort.

Night Of Thunder has since beaten dual-winner Aeolus and Stubbs, who was (sixth) drawn on the wrong side in War Command’s Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot.

3.05 Newmarket William Haggas, who trains Penny Drops, has also booked Joe Fanning for Tweed, easy maiden winner on the soft at Newcastle a fortnight ago. But I thought Willow Beck looked big at 6.2 on BETDAQ at the time of writing, with Oisin Murphy claiming a vital 5lb.

Willow Beck has won only on firm ground but is lightly raced and his soft-ground second on the July Course was over too short a distance. His sire’s progeny statistics show that the get have their best percentage returns from soft and heavy ground.

DAQMAN’S BETS (All bets are to win 20 points, unless declared as savers to recoup the win stakes on the first selection)
BET 3.5pts win TIDAL WAY and 0.9pts win and place MOJOLIKA (1.40 Wetherby)
BET 2.7pts win PENNY DROPS (2.00 Newmarket)
BET 3.8pts win WILLOW BECK and 1pt win (stakes saver) TWEED (3.05 Newmarket)
BET 4.1pts win (nap) EVER RIDER (8.45 Santa Anita)
BET 5.5pts win GIOVANNI BOLDINI and 1.2pts win (stakes saver) OUTSTRIP (9.25 Santa Anita).
BET 6pts win VERRAZANO (10.05 Santa Anita)
BET 4.5pts win VORDA and 3pts win MY CONQUESTADORY (10.50 Santa Anita)
BET 7pts win PRINCESS OF SYLMAR (11.35 Santa Anita)


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