NOW IT’S FIVE BANKERS IN A ROW: Daqman continued to pile up his two sequences yesterday. He’s already hit 10 lays in a row. Now he has five consecutive bankers – after Twentytwo’s Taken (WON 8-11) – for a 20-point-level-stakes profit of 77.81. They are:
WON 4-11 Josses Hill
WON 1-1 Kingscourt Native
WON 6-4 Don Cossack
WON 3-10 Top Notch
WON 8-11 Twentytwo’s Taken
STAKING KEEPS DAQMAN IN FRONT: Daqman’s gambles failed yesterday, yet he still staked right to land a profit (17.54) and was 10 points up on Wednesday. Last Thursday he scored 41 points profit; Saturday he landed 79. Yesterday’s was boosted by The Tourard Man (WON 9-2).
DJAKADAM SET FOR GOLD.. BUT IN 2016
Forget the stats, say most Press pundits. Djakadam’s success yesterday gives power to their elbow, but just how ludicrous is their spurning of past facts and records?
Stats are the sum of what usually happens, so it’s implicit that they are right as often as they claim to be!
The secondary attack on stats is that, if that is the case – i. e. that’s what usually happens – then there won’t be a price worth having, because everybody knows.
Wrong again. Facts and stats – even the form – are generally ignored by punters. They prefer a hyped horse. They prefer a favourite horse, one in the headlines.
So yesterday they got it right. The fanfared horse, Djakadam, won the races. And those same punters will say how amazing was the 9-2 SP and how we should be kicking ourselves if we missed it.
Not so. Djakadam, as only a six-year-old, and a virtual novice who had struggled in the Newbury Hennessy, was short at that price.
Ok, then, come back the Djakadam fans, what about the 40-1 we had about the Gold Cup before yesterday’s race? That’s got you.
Again, not so: 40-1 is about right. Only one horse aged six (Long Run) has won the Gold Cup since Mont Tremblant (1953) and Mill House (1963). The other greats of that great era, L’Escargot and Captain Christy, were both seven, as was the greatest of them all, Arkle, the first time he won it.
In the modern era, Best Mate (2002-4) and Kauto Star (2007 and 2009) were the winning youngsters, also starting their sequence at seven. So in the long run (pun intended), on the age factor alone, 40-1 is about right.
On the other hand, if you could get me 40-1 about Djakadam for the 2016 Gold Cup, I would be interested; very, very interested. Put your offers in the orange!
Best Mate and Kauto Star had 10 and 11 chases on their CV before they won the big ‘un at the festival. Djakadam has had five, and needs the experience of winning more decent races. But he certainly has the potential to reach the top. In the long run.
I GOTTA ‘HORSE’ AT 14.0 FOR TOMORROW
If you ABC a bet.. My stats-and-facts guide to tomorrow’s Great Yorkshire in Wednesday’s column threw up – in alpha order – Grandads Horse, If In Doubt and Night In Milan, followed closely by Easter Day.
They were 14.0, 6.8, 11.5 and 5.6 respectively in the BETDAQ ante-post offers this morning at the time of writing. I shall reserve final judgment until the day. But you could be missing out. If my stats are anything to go by!
‘PERSIL’ IS IN THE WASH AT DONCASTER
1.05 Doncaster The leading stables of Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls were out of the first three with the first two favourites in the launch of this race last year.
Nicky tries again with Days Of Heaven but has to give weight to 16 in the field, and it was a lightweight which was their undoing a year ago.
Days Of Heaven is not even favourite. That dubious honour in this big field of novices goes to Buckwheat, the joint top-weight. Bet on Buckwheat and he’s a shade of odds on. Back the two, and you have long odds-on your dutch.
I see 18.0 bar two on BETDAQ. More enticing is that all bar the two favourites are bigger offers for a place – exclusively in the BETDAQ orange – than they are to win.
So, while others struggle to evaluate Catterick winner Buckwheat versus Ludlow winner Days Of Heaven, I’ll choose between Charlie Breekie and Newton Martini for a place, with both their stables in winning form.
Charlie Breekie has already been placed twice, will improve for the better ground and, with Nico De Boinville’s claim, gets 10lb from the top two. His place offer is about the same as Days Of Heaven’s win odds but, at that price, Charlie has three chances to win money, Days only one. Heaven can wait.
2.15 Doncaster I’m going to listen closely to the commentary. No one can police the language, but Purcell’s Bridge reminds me that the ‘U’ way of saying it now is Persil (not Per-sell), just when we’d recovered from Ken-ya instead of Keen-ya.
Whatever, Purcell’s Bridge has a sound chance (pun intended) at 5.6 on BETDAQ, early mouse. I think he can handle the rise in the ratings for winning easily at Musselburgh.
Red Devil Lads also won on the last day but that was a hurdle not a chase and the race was slow by a minute (literally).
A bigger danger may be American Legend under Tony McCoy (who will seek out the better ground). Failed to last out the 4m at Exeter but looks a trade proposition here, as a front-runner, with your early position around 6.4.
I can’t follow the offers through to the ‘off’ and beyond, as far as this column goes. But, thanks to the usual low percentage total in the orange, I can dutch Purcell’s Bridge and American Legend.
HARRY HAS A TOUCH OF CLASS AT AYR
1.45 Ayr I would not read too much into Nicky Henderson’s appearance here with Quiet Candid (not ‘Solo Raid’ headlines), as the horse is northern-owned.
The mare has a fine chance, if she can repeat her 12-lengths Towcester win of November. But she’s still looking for an official rating and the handicapper won’t take too kindly to another romp.
In fact, front or van runner Northside Prince, dropped back in trip, has better form. He ran second to one that was completing a four-timer and before that to one that won a Grade B chase.
2.55 Ayr One For Harry rates the nap at 4.5 in the BETDAQ orange. He’s another who likes to lead or race close up.
‘Harry’ is high in the handicap but that’s because this class-2 winner is dropped in grade. Circus Star gets lumps of weight but – also a front runner – he’s failed to last the trip in his three runs this season and has won only in class 4.
DAQMAN’S BETS (Points stake 1 to 9; a banker gets 10).
BET 1pt win and 4pts place CHARLIE BREEKIE (1.05 Doncaster)
BET 6pts win NORTHSIDE PRINCE (1.45 Ayr)
BET 4pts win on each AMERICAN LEGEND and PURCELL’S BRIDGE (2.15 Doncaster)
BET 8pts win (nap) ONE FOR HARRY (2.55 Ayr)
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