SHOCK! IT’S POOR CONSOLATION: There are long faces among the Newmarket executive with only 11 declared for today’s Silver Cambridgeshire, consolation race for the big ’un tomorrow but dumped to the end of the Friday card and – says Daqman – ‘only posing as a class-2 race’.
SHOCK 7.8 OUTSIDER IS NAPPED: Though there are just four declared for the Joel Stakes, among them an even-money favourite ridden by the returning Ryan Moore, Daqman naps one of the outsiders, a 7.8 offer on BETDAQ this morning.
NO SHOCK AT ALL: DAQMAN STREETS AHEAD OF PRICEWISE: The 1.55 and 3.05 (the Rockfel Stakes) see Daqman and Pricewise go head to head. Their record this Flat season? No shock at all: Daqman leads 85-14.
FRESH LAVENDER LOOKS THE PICK IN THE LISTED
1.55 Newmarket Value or what! Six races out of the eight had 102 to 108% total offers in the BETDAQ orange this morning. Compare that to the SP Totals on the opening day yesterday of up to 119 (twice) and 123%.
Three-year-olds have won this Listed three years running but not as favourites. Winners have been between 4-1 and 12-1 SP.
Spangled was narrowly favourite this morning but with six horses within a four-point parameter in the orange, where I liked Lavender Lane (6.6) and Muffri’Ha (9.0).
French raider Lavender Lane is the fresh horse of the race, having only her third start of the campaign. She was unlucky not to go closer than her length-and-a-half sixth in the Opera on Arc day last year when trapped behind a wall of horses.
Lavender Lane is dropped in trip, while Muffri’Ha will just about beat Spangled on Newmarket (July) form, stepped up a furlong here.
2.30 Newmarket (Princess Royal Stakes) Three-year-olds are 9-1 up in this, with four winners in seven years to the usual suspects: Gosden, Haggas, Stoute.
When the Classic generations clashed in the Park Hill, a three-year-old won it, but Melodious and Asyad (Stoute) were only half a length apart, second and third.
Melodious is not an easy ride (hung left at York; hung right at Doncaster) and Asyad may get revenge, down in trip and 4lb better off.
MARKET RUN MARKS OUT A PROMISING FILLY
3.05 Newmarket (Rockfel Stakes) The Rockfel got a massive dual lift when subsequent Newmarket 1,000 Guineas winners Speciosa and Finsceal Beo took it in successive years, 2005-6, and Just The Judge (Irish 1,000 winner) and Lucida (Newmarket 1,000 runner-up) have kept the race on a high in the last three seasons.
But today’s renewal has lost some of its glamour with the defection (for Sunday at The Curragh?) of How High the Moon, the Diamondsandrubies’ full sister. In fact, Aidan O’Brien swerves the race altogether.
Thetis (another Stoute) steps up in grade but sees the return of Ryan Moore (and Kieren Fallon’s back at Haydock). Doubly Motivated and Promising Run are similar types to Thetis, easy maiden winners going straight for a Group 2.
Which of the three can match strides with established Group performers Hawksmoor and Great Page? Surprisingly, the market speaks against Thetis who, like Great Page, is easy to back this morning.
But I wouldn’t stop you punting Thetis because the Pricewise lemmings will no doubt cramp the price later on and give you a trade if not a winner.
I’d like to see Doubly Motivated make this for Jim Crowley but, though I was no more impressed by Promising Run, I was surprised to see a Godolphin so heavily backed on both her starts, as if she’s a gallops queen, and I took 5.8 this morning.
THIS IS THE DAY FOR FUTURE CHAMPION KNIGHT
3.40 Newmarket (Joel Stakes) Horses aged three and four usually win this but David O’Meara has spoilt their record with Penitent (2012) and Custom Cut (2014).
Custom Cut is six now as he goes for back-to-back wins with a big chance, since only Time Test (disappointing on the last day; needs firm ground) among the younger trio has won in the Pattern.
But I’ve twice written up the home work and messages about Decorated Knight from my man in the long grass, and have finally got a race to back him in (at 7.8 on BETDAQ this morning).
The holiday may have helped this improver, with his stable hoping he’s good enough for British Champions Day.
4.15 Newmarket It was only on Monday that this column successfully tipped a Sir Michael Stoute debutante, Queen’s Trust (WON 9-2), who absolutely scythed through the pack in a BETDAQ-sponsored race.
Sir Michael has landed this Derrinstown Maiden three times in the decade, twice with a first-timer, and runs two today.
Fidaawy (5.4 on BETDAQ) is by New Approach out of a Pivotal mare, who is related to a famous Stoute powerhouse, Pilsudski. Shabbah, offered at 24.0 as I write, is a Sea The Stars colt.
Again there’s a Godolphin as a firm order at the head of the market: Great Order is the only colt in the race with a Group-1 target (the Racing Post Trophy).
PUT SOME PUNCH INTO THE SILVER CONSOLATION
5.25 Newmarket (Silver Cambridgeshire) The first Cambridgeshire shock is that this Silver consolation, which usually has 15 and 25 runners, has dwindled to 11.
The second shock is that even those 11 are class-4, 5 and even 6 animals in a race only posing as a class 2.
A third shock in such a reduced field would be if the bookies thieved another 137% Total SP as they did in the race last year.
Three-year-olds have won four out of the five since the consolation idea was launched, and Rocket Punch seems to be value at 8.0, as the ground dries out.
He was never travelling on a soft surface on the last day but before that had won well at Goodwood and Kempton, where he beat American Artist and, therefore, also holds Flashy Memories. First run after being gelded.
DAQMAN’S BETS (each staked to win 20 points)
BET 3.5pts win LAVENDER LANE and 2.5pts win MUFFRI’HA (1.55 Newmarket)
BET 4.3pts win ASYAD (2.30 Newmarket)
BET 4pts win PROMISING RUN (3.05 Newmarket)
BET 3pts win (nap) DECORATED KNIGHT (3.40 Newmarket)
BET 4.5pts win FIDAAWY, and 1pt win and place SHABBAH, plus 4pts win (stakes saver) GREAT ORDER (all 4.15 Newmarket)
BET 2.8pts win ROCKET PUNCH (5.25 Newmarket)
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