UNLUCKY 13: ONE LEG LOST AGAIN: Daqman, pipped a nose for a bankers double and win treble on Wednesday, met the same fate again yesterday with two wins out of three, the opening leg coming from last place to get within a length of the winner. Wednesday winners were 7-2 and 4-6. Yesterday, Grey Life (WON 6-4), Emirates Skycargo (WON 4-9). That gave him 13 winning bankers from 20, with the form:
Bankers 111111132121311U2121
Naps 1111212
LUCKY 13 CHELTENHAM ANTE-POST: Today Daqman analyses the Friday card a week ahead of the Cheltenham Festival, with stats and facts about each race to be run in seven days’ time, and an ante-post bet which brings the total to 13 in advance of the festival.
TOMORROW: THE SATURDAY KING: Daqman has won 130 points in the last two Saturdays with winners at 8-1, 5-1 (twice), 7-2 and 5-2, sending him clear of his Racing Post value-betting rival. It’s Daqman 21, Pricewise 12. And tomorrow is Imperial Cup day.
‘MERCUREY’ RISES FOR THE FESTIVAL!
It’s the last day. This completes my race-by-race survey of all four days at Cheltenham. My bet in the conditionals’ race is the last of 13 ante-post swipes at the layers. The festival’s getting closer. And the ‘Mercurey’ is rising.
1.30 Cheltenham, next Friday (Triumph Hurdle): A race that used to belong to Ireland, went to home trainers Hobbs, King, Henderson and Nicholls – with two apiece –for eight years from 2004.
But the Irish broke back through Our Conor (stabled with the late Dessie Hughes, who will be much missed next week) and they scored again last year with Gordon Elliott’s Tiger Roll. So are the invaders on a roll?
Check them out for a Flat-bred (sire must have won a Group 1 or 2 race), with no more than three hurdles starts (7 out of 10) but with two successes already (6 out of 10).
Willie Mullins’ grey Kalkir (17.5 on BETDAQ this morning) and stablemate Petite Parisienne (9.8), who beat him at Leopardstown, are by the same stallion, who ticks the Group-winner box.
But a third Mullins hope, Dicosimo, ticks all three, son of a Group-1 winner (twice), and with success already at Auteuil and when switched to Gowran Park.
He is 15.0 on BETDAQ behind the English contingent, headed by Henderson stablemate,s hot-favourite Peace And Co, and Hargam.
DAQMAN’S ANTE-POST VERDICT: The market suggests that Petite Parisienne is the leading Irish hope but the stats favour Dicosimo.
This column is already in a trade situation with Alan King’s Pain Au Chocolat, 39.0 taken on BETDAQ and now half that at 20.0. As low as 14-1 with a top Irish bookmaker.
2.05 Cheltenham, Friday (County Hurdle): Search out a young horse (five or six; they’re 8 out of 10), weighted below 11st (9-10) and trained in Ireland (6-7), preferably by a Mullins: Anthony, Thomas and Willie have bagged four since 2007.
The winning-ratings band is very narrow: here are the last eight winners by official rating: 134, 139, 139, 134, 135, 132, 135 and 131.
And, guess what, Willie has managed to insinuate no fewer than five horses into the 131-139 band: Lucky Bridle, Daneking, Wicklow Brave, Max Dynamite and Aklan, all huge offers this morning.
DAQMAN’S ANTE-POST VERDICT: I’ll wait on the decs but W Mullins looks poised in the ratings band, every one of his quintet the right age.
2.40 Cheltenham, Friday (Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle): A tough race for a novice, with all bar one winner in the decade having previously won over 2m 5f or more and eight from nine were Graded-race winners.
Five out of eight already had a Cheltenham win on their CV, like the ultra-consistent local horse, Blaklion, 14.0 in the BETDAQ orange. Another who fits the bill at a big price is Definitly Red (27.0).
DAQMAN’S ANTE-POST VERDICT: Seven out of nine had had only three or four hurdles starts, and I reckon I’ll find an improver from that area.
3.20 Cheltenham Gold Cup, Friday: Nine out of 10 winners in the decade were aged seven, eight or nine, and five had had onky eight or nine steeplechase starts.
The 2013 hero Bobs Worth (15.0 on BETDAQ as I write) has had just 10 chases but all winners in the decade came from the first three in the market at SP.
DAQMAN’S ANTE-POST VERDICT: It’s a year to wait for the money, with Road To Riches (10 chases), Many Clouds (nine), Carlingford Lough (17), Coneygree (three) and Holywell (10) all the right age and all improvers. Or can Silviniaco Conti (17 chase starts) lift the hoodoo on his Cheltenham form?
4.00 Cheltenham, Friday (Foxhunter Chase): Of the 45 left in until today’s decs, 33 had black marks because they are a double-figure age. Horses aged seven, eight and nine have won nine out of 10 renewals in the decade.
The ratings band (134-140 win 80% of the time) suggests that Current Event is a standout at around 9.8 on BETDAQ.
DAQMAN’S ANTE-POST VERDICT: Good form is important for these hunter-chase races but winners at 33-1 (twice) and 20-1 (twice) in the decade suggest the better ground finds out Points and hunter-chase horses used to soft-heavy.
The four big-odds wins came on good ground, good-to-soft at the worst. No wonder the younger horses have the legs of the older ones and no wonder there are turn-ups. I’m determined to crack the winning code with those clues, as the ground continues to dry out (they’re even thinking of watering).
4.40 Cheltenham, Friday (Martin Pipe Hurdle): Look for youngsters (ages five and six have won them all) from the top yards (Henderson, Nicholls, Mullins) within a narrow ratings band: 133, 134, 137, 139, 141.
DAQMAN’S ANTE-POST VERDICT: That’s half the field at this stage, with a very short handicap range of only 6lb covering the first 38 of 185 entries.
But my man in the long grass tells me that Paul Nicholls has laid out Le Mercurey for this, unphased by the 144 rating (will probably carry 11st 9lb) because of the tight handicap.
Nicholls has some excellent conditional jockeys he can call on, and the presence of Willie Mullins’ Roi des Francs in the field means that I could get around 10.5 in the BETDAQ ante-post orange. A battle of champion stables is in prospect.
5.15 Cheltenham, Friday (Grand Annual) Again, forget the old timers: six out of nine had had only four to seven chase starts, and only one winner in the decade was older than nine.
But the turnkey stat is that there has been no success from 11st or above in 14 seasons (and in 21 of the last 25 years).
DAQMAN’S ANTE-POST VERDICT: The grand annual Cheltenham bash is over for another year, and I reserve my Grand Annual getting-out bet until the day. Let’s hope I don’t need a very big stake.
GREYWELL BOY POISED FOR HAT-TRICK
The waiting is almost over. Tomorrow the Imperial Cup; next week Cheltenham. And the tilting at small-fry trebles turns to the high-stakes of bull’s-eye and ton-up bets for the big targets.
Stakes are raised today, targeting 20 points per bet. Tomorrow it will be 30 or 50, and next week for the festival up to 40-100. We’ve got a wallet full of winnings. . so where are you, Pricewise? Show a leg!
2.50 Sandown Nicky Henderson’s recent form in this is 11011; only one winner was favourite. Two were maidens and the last one (won 7-1) had been beaten a total of 84 lengths in its two previous starts.
Today’s runner, Mister Chairman, also a maiden, was beaten 75 lengths just before Christmas in his only completed race since last Spring. So he’s got the form, then!
Only Paul Nicholls’ Sirabad in this field has won a hurdle, but I’m not sure this is another old firm battle, as Sirabad is a big, chasing sort and may be beaten for speed, giving away 7lb, on the drying ground. The grey Seven Nation Army, who is likely to take them on, has the bumper form and may have that speed. But I’m content with 16.0 Mister Chairman to small stakes, win and place.
The place is a better offer than a win on either one of the favourites, and to back them both would take you into long odds-on.
3.25 Sandown (Grand Military Gold Cup) Paul Nicholls has won this four times and Jody Sole twice in the decade. They team up today with Howlongisafoot.
He ran well on this Sandown course in December and scored at Taunton on the last day. Likes to be up with the pace but may find Loose Chips and the stayer Tales Of Milan (won 3m 5f here) giving him company.
Loose Chips and Ballyallia Man were second and third in a similar race over CD in February, and a second Nicholls runner, Merrion Square, is not just a topical tip for Dublin punters.
Merrion Square (7.0 offers) won this in 2013 but is still only nine years old. Goes very well fresh and worth a tilt with his stablemate as saver.
4.00 Sandown Only one outright favourite has won this in the decade, partly because punters have swerved the top of the handicap where the last four winners have come from.
But there’s another feature to the race today: four of the top five in the ratings are 11 years old. Only one of them, Araldur, has won a hurdle since October 2012.
Araldur was a good second a class higher than this at Newbury a month back. There’s not much between him and his old rival, American Life, and it’s difficult to separate Invicta Lake and El Dancer, who were the one-two over CD in January, three grades higher than today.
Lessons In Milan and Ustica are not easy to assess as they emerge from novice careers into handicaps for Nicky Henderson and Jonjo O’Neill.
Only two horses over six-years-old have won this in the decade, and Ustica (7.8 on BETDAQ) looks the one likely to improve the most, though the market screams Lessons In Milan, 2.4 favourite as I write.
4.35 Sandown Greywell Boy goes for a hat-trick in this, back in his grade, back to his winning mark and with Tony McCoy on his back! His two market rivals are front-runners, so setting a target for the champion stalker at a nap price of around 3.2 offers on BETDAQ this morning.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points, except ante-post bet)
BET 1.3pts win and place MISTER CHAIRMAN (2.50 Sandown)
BET 3.3pts win MERRION SQUARE and 2.5pts win (stakes saver) HOWLONGISAFOOT (3.25 Sandown)
BET 3pts win USTICA and 2pts win (stakes saver) LESSONS IN MILAN (4.00 Sandown)
BET 9pts win (nap) GREYWELL BOY (4.35 Sandown)
ANTE-POST: BET (to win 40) 4.2pts win LE MERCUREY (4.40 Cheltenham, Friday, 10.5)
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