SEEING THE ARC IN A DIFFERENT LIGHT: Daqman is a knocker today of horses being set up for the Arc De Triomphe. Is he right? Judge for yourself or wait for the day.
THE PUNTER MUST KNOW WHAT’S RUNNING: Daqman also comes out against a plan for reserves in big races. Is he talking through his pocket? You bet he is.
THESE ARE NO ARC LIGHTS: I think the so-called price-wise Arc De Triomphe pundits are missing the point. Twice. Intello is being considered for the Arc for two reasons: Andre Fabre has been left in the cold with the defeat of his other top-class colt, Flintshire, and his Intello owners, the Wertheimers, have nothing else for the race.
History is not on the side of the Fabre duo. Modern French Derby (1m 2f) winners don’t win the Arc, and Intello would have to be a phenomenon.
The last colt to do the double was Dalakhani (2003) but that was back before the French in their infinite lack of wisdom reduced the distance of the race.
Nor do losers in the Arc trials of Niel, Foy and Vermeille go on to win the Arc. Or at least only three of them have done so, against the 20 and more Arc winners produced from the winners on that trials day.
Remember the results I published that weekend, going back in some cases as far as 1972? They’re in the Daqman Archive.
No, the late improvers – some quite sensationally so – of this Arc year are clearly Kizuna, Leading Light, Novellist and Treve, and their toughest opponent, bent on avenging last year’s unlucky run in the race, is Orfevre.
For me, the Fabre Arc lights have gone out this year, and he has some delicate owner negotiations on his plate. Meanwhile, I want to see Intello in the (1m 2f) Champion Stakes at Ascot on October 19th. We need that injection into the race.
THE WINNER WASN’T RUNNING: I hear that the BHA is considering reserves for some big races in England. It certainly seems a shame when it is so difficult to get your horse into the field to find that he’s missed the cut even though one above him is withdrawn, for whatever reason.
The problem seems to have grown in the modern era when massive entries for big handicaps produces races in which only the quality at the top will get in, with a very few pounds difference between them.
The long handicap is virtually a thing of the past, and splitting the morass of entries – like the Ayr Gold, Silver and Bronze – isn’t always feasible for several reasons, not least the willingness for a sponsor to cough up more cash.
But, if you bring in reserves, there must be very strict rules. I’m still smarting from a big race in Ireland recently when I burnt the proverbial midnight oil, pouring over the form.
There were three reserves. I had a look at them but I couldn’t seriously consider them in my pricing up. Well, maybe the first. Possibly the second? It was a messy business, trying to assess what odds I needed when something in the reserves might come in and take out a huge slice of the market.
In the event, the THIRD reserve ran. And won. As Alice Treedown might say: Strong men wept! I know I did.. with frustration.
I don’t know what changed so many plans in that particular race, and I have to assume that it just happened like that (no Stewards’ inquiry?) But it certainly leaves the way open for a stable to manipulate a market – and the race – in a way that’s tantamount to running a ringer.
TODAY’S NAP: That they came down the centre of the course to win there yesterday was going to be my starting point for today’s three sprints at Hamilton, but they hardly total as many runners as an Ayr Bronze.
Only one heat has any quality. The EBF has slotted in a conditions race (class 2 at 4.10), which has just enough runners to make it interesting but not normally enough to be sure there’ll be any pace on.
Colonel Mak and Hopes N Dreams should change all that. Both have raced, and won, from the front in their last three starts since the end of July. Both have won on an easy surface.
Which one do you want: the Hamilton specialist – Hopes N Dreams has won on the course five times – or Colonel Mak, who should be back to form after cutting out a lot of the running in the Ayr Silver Cup.
The official ratings say that Hopes And Dreams has 5lb in hand but she’s had a long year of 12 races and has always been in and out (currently 10101), whereas Colonel Mak, who had a seven-week break before Ayr, often wins almost immediately after a run. A 107% list in the orange means I can spend a bit extra, with a Hopesful saver.
Proximate (3.40) should land the odds, a lone raider across the border today for Sir Michael Stoute and the hub of my Daq Multiples.
Leicester has a lofty class-3 sprint (4.00). The two edges have to be: delete the low draw and make sure your horse goes on the soft.
New Fforest may be ffar too short after the success of Highland Colori in the Ayr Gold for Andrew Balding and Oisin Murphy. Let’s have a look at the orange..
Well, 7.0 is not bad but further rain (which has knocked out Jack Lucy and Tax Free) dampens my interest, and raise hopes for Kyleakin Lass (down a grade) in the adjacent stall 14, though she needs all of Richard Hughes’ hard driving.
Noodles Blue Boy, right alongside New Fforest and Kyleakin Lass in 13, is ridden by another bright young claimer, Connor Beasley.
Kempton also has a couple of fair contests. Badr Al Badoor (4.20) can be forgiven Goodwood (so many can) and is back at his favourite track.
Rivellino also loves Kempton but can he rise in both weight and grade from his last win there? Purcell has tried higher class on turf, and he was second at Kempton in June.
DAQMAN’S BETS (target 20 points per bet)
BET 2.4pts win KYLEAKIN LASS, 3pts win NEW FFOREST and 0.8pts win and place NOODLES BLUE BOY (4.00 Leicester)
BET 8.5pts win COLONEL MAK and 4.2pts win (stakes saver) HOPES AND DREAMS (4.10 Hamilton)
BET 5.5pts win BADR AL BADOOR and 3pts win PURCELL, with 3pts win (stakes saver) RIVELLINO (4.20 Kempton)
DAQ MULTIPLES: BET 10pts win (nap) PROXIMATE (3.40 Hamilton), with 5 x 1pt win doubles and 2 x 1pt win trebles, the same one with Purcell (4.20 Kempton), and Colonel Mak and Hopes N Dreams (4.10 Hamilton)
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