COME ON MY SON! DAQMAN LANDS MORE BETDAQ VALUE: Daqman scored with yet another jackpot bet yesterday via Mayson (WON 4-1), which he tipped for the Abernant at 8.4 on Betdaq.
9-2 CRAVEN WINNER: He also named first and third with two bets in the Craven Stakes, Trumpet Major (WON 9-2) and Eastern Sun (3rd 6-1).
Now it’s a mud Bath. The ground at Newbury and Bath could deteriorate to an official ‘soft’ with rain forecast during the morning and again tonight.
Bath has the race of the day, the Listed fillies’ stakes (6.30), for which we would normally be looking for at least four clues: a high draw, a stable in form, an animal with class and one that likes plenty of cut.
Caledonia Lady is clear on official ratings: she needs soft going and performed at Group level last term but she took time to get going – winning form in September – her stable is out of form, and it would be unusual for a three-year-old to win at this time of year.
That also applies to Pale Orchid and Gin Twist, who have ‘miles’ to make up on her and also have to translate AW winning-form to turf (so has Googlette). In fact, Gin Twist is rated more than 30lb inferior to Caledonia Lady.
Night Carnation is top rated and has won a Group 3 but, on the evidence of that race, and a similar event later on at Newbury, she is held by Beyond Desire (Astrophysical Jet well beaten off).
However, Night Carnation has an infinitely better strike rate, is well drawn and, although with Andrew Balding whose horses often need a run first time back, she scored on her initial outing last season.
Against that is she was beaten favourite, fourth of nine, in her only run on soft ground, and my fancy is Perfect Tribute at a tasty 12.0 on Betdaq, as I write.
This is going to be a bit of a slog if the ground cuts up and Perfect Tribute, who drops back from Group company, and won her races in April and May last term, has won over 6f and 7f.
Her sire, Dubawi, has done well enough with his progeny on the soft, and she is no 12.0 shot if fit (Clive Cox had winners at Nottingham and Leicester, both on the soft, last week).
Bernard Llewellyn’s yard is in fine form and Salontyre (7.30) is, too; over hurdles at least. Ministerofinterior has also done well under NH Rules.
But I fancy the bigger danger is Kieren Fallon’s mount, Six Of Clubs, who landed a gamble under that jockey at Lingfield and is by a stallion whose progeny stats show best returns on heavy going.
At Newbury, where the Round Course is already soft, trainer Al Zarooni has saved up my Derby bet Swedish Sailor (4.55) for another day, possibly the Dante, running Gold Rally instead.
Gold Rally and the Henry Cecil hot-pot Wrotham Heath also have Dante and Derby entries but I was steered to Swedish Sailor (took 27.0 on BETDAQ, remember) by the news that he had wintered exceptionally well.
The Godolphin colt is now 21.0 joint fifth-favourite for Epsom. Of course, the Derby is still a lottery at this stage – I shall discuss what pointers to look out for in this column next week – but I always attempt to get a position, if only a ‘coconut shy’ at the field, from which to work.
Like the Seabass 60.0 in the Grand National, a flutter on BETDAQ can give you massive encouragement, and a nice little earner if you’re lucky, at a time when bookmakers are hugely overround and looking after themselves in the markets, rather than the punter of course.
The Wood Ditton win yesterday was also a boost to my winter confidences that this would be Godolphin’s Classic year in England, with its two main stables armed to the teeth with talent.
If Swedish Sailor is not their best, then what they fire today, and fired in yesterday’s Wood Ditton, could be salvos which launch a big gun among their 24 Epsom Derby entries, just one fewer than Ballydoyle’s 25 total contingent.
But I took my cue from the Godolphin decision earlier in the month to put two more horses forward at the second-entry stage.
One of them was a pretty obvious one, Mandaean, easy winner when with Andre Fabre of the Criterium De Saint-cloud last November.
The other one was Swedish Sailor. That brought a sigh of relief from me, as I’d put forward this colt on what I’d heard from the grapevine.
Meanwhile, Mandaean has come in to 29.0 on BETDAQ, and I think it worth taking, since that is nearly double the 14-1 with Ladbrokes and Corals.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 7pts win VINTAGE STAR and 1.9pts win (stakes saver) LIKEABLE ROGUE (3.25 Ayr)
BET 3.8pts win (nap) MERRY KING (5.35 Ayr)
BET 1.8pts win and place PERFECT TRIBUTE (6.30 Bath)
BET 5.1pts win on each SALONTYRE and SIX OF CLUBS (7.30 Bath)
ANTE-POST: WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 1.03pts win MANDAEAN (29.0 Epsom Derby)
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