NOW IT’S SIX OUT OF NINE FOR HORSES TO FOLLOW: Daqman’s horses to follow for 2013 have already clocked up six wins from nine starters, after Easter Day (WON 4-9) yesterday, doubled in Daq Multiples bets with Tetlami (WON 11-10).

19.0 OFFER A BETDAQ ‘GIFT’ AT SANDOWN, SAYS DAQMAN: There are stats that warn against the market leaders at Sandown today and one to turn over the favourite could be an 18.0 ‘gift’ offer spotted by Daqman in the handicap chase.

BIG MORNING GAMBLE ON PIPE: Feature of the early-doors market in Warwick’s Grand National test for three outsiders today was a gamble on a Martin Pipe horse but one marked down for Cheltenham not Aintree. What’s Daqman’s verdict?


If you think favourites have had a bad run, look out at Sandown! The market leader at SP is a significantly sorry 3-38 in an eight-year history of the jumps races on the corresponding card, 0-8 in both handicap hurdles.

There have been winners at 33-1, 25-1, 14-1 (twice), 12-1 (twice) and 11-1 (three times) on all types of ground, and that’s assessing only races in that time which are a continuation of, or contiguous with, today’s events.

Despite the sometimes atrocious conditions, handicaps were yesterday won by three top weights and four in second or third spot on their card.

Punters on Plein Pouvoir (4.30 Sandown) – ‘full power’ or ‘all-out effort’ – need not be worried on that score, with Tony McCoy in the saddle, a rare booking by Venetia Williams.

Plein Pouvoir was a good second in today’s grade, on today’s track, in today’s ground three weeks ago, albeit over half a mile shorter. His form at 3m in the last year with cut in the ground is 222.

He needs to step up on that, improve about 5lb under McCoy (that’s normal) and lay the favourites’ bogy: no favourite has won this race in its current form.

This morning’s second favourite, Barlow, has also been in the frame over 3m under Rules without winning, while Circus Of Dreams and Tafika are up 9lb and 10lb on their winning form, and Minella Theatre has recent success only in a selling hurdle.

I, therefore, think Goring One is a ridiculous price. He came back to form, second, when up against five-time winner Pete The Feat, then beat Plein Pouvoir at Wincanton at today’s weights.

While Plein Pouvoir is 5.2 this morning, Goring One, a known late-developer, is 19.0 on BETDAQ, as I write. He missed out last time behind Ringa Bay (0-3 going righthanded like today) but any horse can be forgiven one bad run. The 19.0 a front-runner is a gift for back-and-lay punters.

McCoy also partners Kapga De Cerisy (3.25) with, if the market is right, only a 6-1 chance of beating an odds-on favourite in a three-horse race.

The idea is that Fago gets back on track for Cheltenham but all three runners are known for front-running and the two with seemingly little chance against Fago will deliberately try to test his jumping, which let him down at Warwick.

Both his opponents have won over further, so won’t worry about taking him on, and when Tony McCoy ranges his horse alongside you at a fence, well you’d better be a Ruby Walsh or a Richard Johnson.

Yes, this is far better than an ordinary three-horse with Walsh, McCoy and Johnson doing battle.

Fago has massive credentials, coming from the Macaire emporium, and from a race at Auteuil won by Kauto Star and Long Run, but it sometimes takes a French horse time to get used to English fences.

Fago made mistakes – at the water jump and the final obstacle – when he won first time over here, in a novice previously won by Finians Rainbow and Big Buck’s.

Gallox Bridge is eight years old and you wouldn’t expect much improvement but Kapga De Cerisy is only five and on the upgrade. Another French recruit, he was fifth in the French Champion Hurdle.

While Fago goes for the big time at Cheltenham – Arkle or Jewson – ‘Kapga’ sticks to the handicaps (he has three choices) at the festival. He’s only 1lb short of the official rating of last year’s Grand Annual winner, while Fago is 15lb short of the Arkle winner’s rating in 2012 but 6lb in front of Jewson winner Sir Des Champs at the same stage.

Intriguing stuff. Granted a clear round, Fago should win. It’s 4-6 in green and orange on a helluva track to test for Cheltenham, with Sandown’s railway fences notorious for finding out a novice.

I’ll spend three points on McCoy at 7.0 ‘Kapga’ on BETDAQ this morning, but Fago clearly has the class and whether I collect or not will depend on whether he has learned from his schooling at Ditcheat since the last-day fall.

Venetia Williams sends stable jockey Aidan Coleman to Warwick, where he rides Niceonefrankie (3.50) in a race dominated by Grand National hopefuls Little Josh, Problema Tic and Frisco Depot.

But David Pipe’s Ballynagour, a stable companion of Problema Tic, has shot to the head of the market on BETDAQ this morning, another with no experience of English fences but a Point winner in Ireland before his Rules career in France.

His French chase form was ‘inconsistent’ (quote unquote D Pipe) and he pulled up last time over fences after reverting to hurdles for a spell. The gamble means they obviously think he’ll do well off a mark of 123 today, and he has six Cheltenham entries, hurdles and chases.

Do you want to take 3.45 on what is a fact-finding mission but with a clear message in the market that they reckon he’s thrown in?

Like Sandown’s railway fences, Warwick has its big obstacles ranged in a row down the back straight and I want the proven jumping ability (except over the National fences) of Problema Tic, drifted to 7.0 because of the support for his stablemate.

Though obviously marked down as a stayer, Problema Tic has been nippy enough to win at Aintree, Southwell and Market Rasen from 2m to 2m 4f. It could be a one-two for Pipe, but which way round?

The 7.0, and allied better-than-evens a place, seems to put Problema Tic in the ‘must bet’ category in terms of value. Place nap.

DAQMAN’S BETS:
BET 1.3pts win and place SOUTHFORK (2.40 Warwick)
BET 3.3pts win KAPGA DE CERISY (3.25 Sandown)
BET 3.3pts win and place PROBLEMA TIC (place nap) and 2.6pts win (stakes saver) BALLYNAGOUR (3.50 Warwick)
BET 4.7pts win PLEIN POUVOIR, and 1.1pts win and place GORING ONE (4.30 Sandown)


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