MARK YOUR CARD WITH ROYAL ASCOT CASH KEYS: Daqman picks 21 races during Royal Ascot week and finds stats which, in some cases, reveal massive bias at work: they are the keys to punting success – YOU CAN ALSO DOWNLOAD AS A PDF. Follow Daqman every day. His bets for this afternoon are at the foot of the column, with his last three naps having run first, first and second (112).
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Toppers off to the Queen?With six of her last seven runners in the frame, and showing her best percentage success rate since 1999, Her Majesty has two in particular primed for Royal Ascot in this year of years: Momentary (Ribblesdale, Thursday) and Estimate (Queen’s Vase, Friday). Both were winners last time out.
Kings Stand Stakes (tomorrow): Seven of the last 10 winners have been drawn between stalls 10 and 15, as follows: 10, 14, 15, 12, 11, 11, 14. The last three winners all carried 9st 4lb.
Queen Anne Stakes (tomorrow): Six-year-olds and older have not won this race since modern records began in 1980 (32 years), yet 27% of those declared for tomorrow are over five.
St James’s Palace Stakes (tomorrow): Nine of the last seven winners had already won a Group 1 or were placed in a Guineas. The last four winners have been drawn in stalls 3, 4 (two) or 5.
Coventry Stakes (tomorrow): Aidan O’Brien has trained the winner six times, twice since the race was promoted to Group-2 status in 2004. The last six Coventry winners came to the line-up unbeaten, three after two wins, three after one.
Ascot Stakes (tomorrow): Seven of the last 10 winners were saddled by jumps trainers. No favourite has won in the last nine years, and three outsiders in a row scored at 33-1, 20-1, 20-1.
Windsor Castle Stakes (tomorrow): Newmarket stables have failed to win this for eight years now, and SPs since 2006 have included 20-1, 33-1 and 100-1.
Jersey Stakes (Wednesday): Favourites have failed for the last 10 seasons, since Mozart in 2001. Winners have started between 6-1 and 12-1 for the last eight years.
Windsor Forest Stakes (Wednesday): Five of the last six winners came from stalls 4 (two), 5, 6 and 7. James Fanshawe has plotted up two successes in that time.
Prince Of Wales’s Stakes (Wednesday): Every one of the last nine winners have come from stalls 1 to 6. Every one of the last eight had put up their best performance outside England, and only three were home trained.
Since the race was raised to the top grade in the year 2000, all bar one of the 12 winners had previously won a Group 1.
Royal Hunt Cup (Wednesday): The last five winners have all been four-year-olds. In the last decade, only one aged six or over has won from 84 attempts by older horses.
Every one of James Fanshawe’s five runners in the decade has won or been placed, but watch the market: his two winners were backed in to 8-1 and 12-1.
Queen Mary Stakes (Wednesday): The market for this changes dramatically after any draw bias in the Royal Hunt Cup. Get an early position by all means but be ready to bet again, high or low, as dictated by the Cup.
Sandringham Stakes (Wednesday): Some 56% of those currently left in are out of the handicap, below 8st 7lb., with Electrelane (9st 7lb) suppressing the weights, but only two horses have carried less than 8st 11lb to victory in the last decade.
Norfolk Stakes (Thursday): Check out the results by draw in the Royal Hunt Cup and the Queen Mary before having a bet. Winners have finished in the first two in their previous races.
Ribblesdale Stakes (Thursday): The SP of the last five winners has always been between 3-1 and 5-1, yet a progressive filly seems to be a must: only one of the last 10 had already scored at Group 1 or 2 level. Clearly the market dictates.
But (there’s always a ‘but,’ isn’t there?) Oaks fillies have always failed in this because the races are usually only two weeks’ apart; this year, there is a three-week breathing space.
Ascot Gold Cup (Thursday): See Sunday’s column in the Archives.
Britannia Handicap (Thursday): This big-field race (51 currently left in) in fact goes to horses year on year from a narrow ratings band: starting with 2011 and going back, the winner has been rated 93, 92, 92, 93, 91, 97 and 95 in seven of the last eight seasons.
Correspondingly, in six of the last eight years, the winner has carried 8-13, 8-10, 8-10, 8-10, 8-12, 8-12, almost automatic bets as long as the draw is suitable.
The bias is huge, with a rails position essential, the middle being usually squashed out. The results by stall in the nine years of the last decade (that ‘s excluding the one renewal at York) show four winners drawn 23, 28, 29, 30 and three from stalls 2 and 6 (twice).
King Edward V11 Stakes (Friday): Stalls 7 and 8 have won four of the last six runnings. John Gosden, Mark Johnston and Sir Michael Stoute all have win-and-place strike rates of more than 50%.
Coronation Stakes (Friday): 10 winners this century had finished in the first six in a Guineas run somewhere in Europe. Every winner came from the first four in the market at the ‘off.’
Hardwicke Stakes (Saturday): Seven of the last eight winners came from the first three in the betting, with the favourite finishing first or second seven times. The last 10 had all been placed in a Group race that season.
Diamond Jubilee Stakes (Saturday): Four of the last six winners were 20-1, 25-1 and 33-1. Ten of the last 12 winners had scored over the distance in a pattern race.
Wokingham Stakes (Saturday): This is a plot race, with eight of the last 10 winners having had two races or fewer in their season (ages four and five have won 9 of the 10). But all planning goes out of the window if you don’t get the draw: stalls 1 to 6 are five out of eight.
DAQMAN’S BETS:
BET 4pts win ROSSETTI (2.00 Wolverhampton)
BET 5pts win PIVOTAL PROSPECT (3.45 Carlisle)
BET 3.2pts win WE HAVE A DREAM (7.40 Windsor)
BET 10.5pts win (nap) SET TO MUSIC (7.55 Warwick)
* Daqman’s selections are backed to win 20 points so, if you divide 20 by his stake, you know the Betdaq offer taken at the time of writing.
* Points are what you make them: if you bet in tenners, then 4pts win is £40; 3.2pts win is £32 (in fivers, those stakes would be £20 and £16). Daqman bets to a level return so that you can easily assess his tipping ability.
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
