FORGET ‘TOY JUMPS’ BF CHASE AS A GOLD CUP TEST: Champion jockey Tony McCoy has slammed the portable fences at Haydock today in advance of the BF Chase, which features the reappearance of Long Run. The favourite is opposed by Daqman, who has landed his last three lays.

THE GAMBLE THAT NEVER WAS: Daqman’s recent run of winning naps was interrupted for the second time by a faller yesterday. He was on Brackloon High, the gamble of the day from 11.0 on BETDAQ to 9-2 SP, but the horse tipped up at the first.

SIX OUT OF EIGHT NAPS UP: His naps sequence is now 1111F11F, with 64% successful in the last month. Says Daqman: ‘My nap was amazing value on BETDAQ. Particularly galling that we didn’t get a run for our money, when I could have napped Gevrey Chambertin (an amazing 3-1) or Petit Robin, which both won for me.’


Ignore Haydock as a Gold Cup test today. You are a BF if you plunge on Cheltenham as a result of the BF Chase. The course is ‘not worthy of its status as a grade-one jump track!’

Who says so? The iron man, himself, Tony McCoy, in his Daily Telegraph column this morning. Haydock ‘used to be a real galloping course with the biggest fences outside Aintree.’

But it is now a track ‘tight round the inside and over portable fences’, so we have a roundabout race with toy jumps. No way is the Grade-1 BF (the Lancashire) Chase a Cheltenham trial at 3.05 this afternoon.

2.30 Haydock Whereas their chases have lost their big fences, the track has gone for fence-like hurdles: this Haydock race over the sticks is hard: sticks they ain’t; these are tough ‘fixed brush’ hurdles.

No wonder the last three winners read like a who’s-who of steeplechasing: Diamond Harry plus the David Pipe pair, Grands Crus and Dynaste.

Pipe may have another pair of aces in the one race today: he certainly deals two picture cards from the front of the betting pack: Katkeau and Knight Pass.

But this morning’s BETDAQ news was that Sivola De Sivola had taken over as market leader. I did a double-take as I checked the market: offers added up to only 105%.

Compare that with the SP last year: 127%. An isolated case? Nope, it was 124% the year before and 125% the year before that. The bookies ‘take out’ your winnings before you bet!

Though Sivola De Sivola has had most success on good to soft, trainer Tom George says he needs soft ground. He holds a verdict over American Spin, who is now eight. No horse over seven has won in the race’s history.

Knight Pass goes well fresh and is the Pipe selected of stable jockey Tom Scudamore, despite a niggling worry about the ground, but the one I like for this fixed-brush contest is Saphir River (9.0 this morning), sharp enough to win well over fences at 2m yet ran at his best in a 3m hurdle in France on heavy.

3.05 Haydock (BF Chase) Aside from the track deficiencies already mentioned, Haydock brings to the table an overweight who will be a quite different horse for the main course at Cheltenham.

His name is Long Run but at home he’s The Big Horse (bigger than ever this season, according to his trainer), so he’s hard to get 100% fit and has lost three times after a long break. He has raced only on good or good to soft in Britain. And I say he’s a false favourite this morning at 2.68 as I write. Lay.

BETDAQ offers added up to only 101% this morning so, if you thought Long Run a knock-out, a false favourite, you could back every other horse in the race and win money.

The Giant Bolster was huge at 8.0. He finished in front of Long Run in last year’s Gold Cup but, more relevant today, he has won all three chases contested after a break. His ‘take no prisoners’ front-running surge will find out the unfit animals.

Weird Al also goes well fresh but there is a lot more risk involved yet a lot less of an offer. He was 6.4 this morning but flopped in the Gold Cup, breaking blood vessels, and in the Grand National.

Like Petit Robin yesterday, he will have been ‘got up’ for this, as one readied for trial money but unlikely to take any big prizes later on. However, I just feel that a horse on the upgrade, Silviniaco Conti, is a better bet against the weird one, who seems not a little bit jinxed.

3.40 Haydock David Pipe is keen on his Grand National horse, Master Overseer, who goes well fresh and his top weight is the same mark off which Neptune Equester scored last year.

Again, bearing in mind the McCoy remarks about Haydock’s fences, we may learn nothing about jumping skills for the National from this race. But 3m 4f on deep ground will tell us something about stamina.

As if we didn’t know on Master Overseer’s account! He’s already won a National over more than 4m and will be hard to beat.

Trigger The Light goes well fresh but is a lonely dog on a raft this morning. No one’s barking his name and he’s over the betting weir at 36.0.

Super Ally, at 13.0 on in a 107% list in the BETDAQ orange as I write, is the one I like. Only a Kelso specialist? I don’t think so. Loves it soft; only 10st 3lb in the plate and Timmy Murphy booked. Now check out his breeding: by Flemensfirth out of a Strong Gale mare. He’’ll want to go round again.

ASCOT NAP: The wonderfully punter-friendly BETDAQ orange makes value headlines this morning: 103% for the 12.35 Ascot, only 102% for the 2.10 and 2.45, and 103% for the 3.20.

I’ll go back to Tony McCoy for Bunglasha Lady (1.40), already a gamble this morning, hooded for the first time, and The Nephew (3.50 Ascot) but I’m hoping he’s just making a price on Dursey Sound for my nap, Easter Day (12.35), who impressed me at Fontwell and will love the ground: 3.8 is big value.

DAQMAN’S BETS
DAQ VALUE BET: 7.1pts win (nap) EASTER DAY (12.35 Ascot)
BET: 3.8pts win BUNGLASHA LADY (1.40 Ascot)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 4pts win KNIGHT PASS, 3.75pts win SAPHIR RIVER, and 1.4pts win (stakes saver) SIVOLA DE SIVOLA (2.30 Haydock)
DAQ VALUE BET: 2.8pts win THE GIANT BOLSTER and 1.2pts win (stakes saver) SILVINIACO CONTI (3.05 Haydock)
DAQ VALUE BET: WIN-30 JACKPOT 6pts win MASTER OVERSEER and 2.5pts win and place SUPER ALLY (3.40 Haydock)
BET: 12pts win THE NEPHEW (3.50 Ascot)

HORSES TO FOLLOW: Raya Star (2.45 Ascot), Silviniaco Conti (3.05 Haydock)

* Daqman’s bets are staked to win 20 points, so you know the offer he took (20 divided by the stake), though jackpot bets are bigger stakes for a bigger return (as stated). A Daq Value bet is one in a race where the overround was 110% or lower at the time of making the selection.


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