MASTER OVERSEER 20.0 WELSH NATIONAL VALUE: It’s a day on which Daqman expects a flood of winners from Paul Nicholls, but reckons Somerset rival David Pipe had the value bet, Master Overseer, in the Welsh National, at 20.0 this morning on BETDAQ.
FIVE WINNING BETS IN TWO DAYS: After winners at 13-8 and 11-10 on Thursday, Daqman yesterday scored with Berlusca (WON 7-2), Pentific (WON 9-4) and Lucky Dan (3rd 16-1)
1.00 Chepstow Paul Nicholls is confident that intensive schooling, and cheekpieces, will combine to put Keppols Hill back on track. Would have been unbeaten after five straight Point wins but for mistakes at the last in both races under Rules.
Nicholls is worth a little flutter early on, with Caid Du Berlais in the next, and For Two (1.15 Sandown) both with first-rate chances. Ex-French For Two is described by him as ‘much stronger’ than on his October debut over here.
1.35 Chepstow (Future Champions Juvenile Hurdle) Nicky Henderson has won this twice in the last decade and Megalypos has the highest (official) rating here off 130 but that’s because the handicapper is, as yet, unable to take the measure of most of the field: only Dalmo and Feb Thirtyfirst have been assessed.
Paul Nicholls asked him for a mark for Caid Du Berlais and was told one two stone ahead of Dalmo! That mark (142) is collateral to French form and has to be taken with a pinch of salt.
However, his nearest market rival, Swynmor, was only class 3 on the Flat and a class-4 hurdler, albeit on just the one run at Newbury, but the horses he beat that day have been beaten just as far by others. Caid Du Berlais will love the ground.
2.05 Wincanton Grands Crus’s brother Gevrey Chambertin is one of my horses to follow and I hope he can complete the hat-trick at the expense of Landscape, who is running within six days of victory to try and beat the handicapper.
2.25 Sandown (Tolworth Hurdle) It would be unusual (a 9-1 shot) for one of the older pair, Melodic Rendezvous and Poet, to win this, with the score in the last decade five-year-olds 5, six-year-olds 3, though again the heavy ground is a concern when discarding experienced horses.
Poet may not be experienced over jumps but has a superior Flat form and lengthy CV. It’s a tricky race but the compensation is a stunning 102% total-probability list of offers in the BETDAQ orange. Value or what!
If I pick one Henderson runner, t’other one will win, but Barry Geraghty has switched from Melodic Rendezvous to Royal Boy and the market says he’s got it right.
2.40 Wincanton Paul Nicholls has won this twice since 2002 – both favourite – and place backers should note that he has never been out of the first three, with form figures of 2133-1.
This fast, turning track is not one for older horses and the Nicholls’ runner, Current Event, has seven opponents of a double-figure age. Nicholls knows all about Big Fella Thanks and Take The Breeze, both having won for him; they’re claiming off Consigliere, Plein Pouvoir doesn’t normally put back-to-back wins together and has never won this high in the handicap. Michael Flips yard is currently out of form.
Current Event, therefore, looks interesting at 7.6 on BETDAQ this morning but even more interesting at 2.7 the place. I fancy a place on him will pay for other bets today.
3.00 Sandown Only Paul Nicholls has been able to win this with a four-year-old (Five Dream 2008), and here he is again pushing one into the deep-end in a handicap.
He had to. Valco De Touzaine came to English racing saddled with a double penalty for back-to-back wins in France and was giving a stone (less Harry Derham’s allowance) when beaten only a length over CD in his own age group a month ago.
On the positive side, Valco is rated 9lb higher than was Five Dream when he won yet is carrying a pound less, though one reason is that the handicap range in this race has been raised 5lb since then.
It’s a tricky one for the punter: he might even be underrated as our handicapper has had only that one chance to see the ex-French Dom Alco grey, by the same sire as Al Ferof, Grands Crus, Silviniaco Contoi and Nicholl’s only National winner, Neptune Collonges.
However, the race at Sandown a month ago was only class 4, and the horse that beat him had previously scored in lowly class 5. This is class 2.
Though Valco De Touzaine was runner-up on heavy over CD a month ago, it may have been under suffrance, since – strangely for a French horse – he won only on a sound surface at home.
Urgence D’estruval, on the other hand – 12.0 on BETDAQ this morning – won three times there on heavy, including at Auteuil.
3.20 Chepstow (Welsh National) See preview as an ABC Guide (Archive Thursday). CLICK HERE
Seven winners of this in the decade were well enough known to the punter (10-1 or shorter at SP). With the last 16 successful all aged in single-figures and no heavy-ground winner on 11st or higher, only a third of the field fits the stats.
Of these, just Soll, Alfie Spinner, Viking Blond, Harouet and Our Island have won on heavy ground. I can’t have Soll. A change to a small stable from Willie Mullins is like Berbatov going from Man United to Fulham: he looks good but can the new team win him anything big?
Alfie Spinner, albeit on ground too fast, was well behind Teaforthree in the NH Chase at Cheltenham. And he looks a tad high in the handicap. Better he goes to Sandown.
Harouet’s punishment for winning at Carlisle – a 7lb penalty – seemed to stop him at Kelso but his poor jumping also had a part to play.
Our Island is an out-and-out stayer (euphemism for ‘plodder’) but has been beaten in this race before and was also well adrift of Teaforthree in the NH Chase at Cheltenham.
Viking Blond ran in this in 2011 but threw his chance away by playing up. He seems a different horse this season: his confidence restored with a run over hurdles, he wasn’t beaten far giving 11lb to Monbeg Dude at Ascot, and I reckon ‘Dude’ a once-a-year-horse.
As I go through the form, that name Teaforthree keeps on cropping up, notably his 4m win at Cheltenham. He’s won at Chepstow on heavy, and is ridden by A P McCoy,
The upside of his defeat in the Hennessy, and by Monbeg Dude at Ascot, is that he’s been dropped 2lb in the handicap That’s a couple of lengths’ bonus for a horse laid out for a race!
Seven of the last nine winners had previously won at Chepstow, which applies to Alfie Spinner, Giles Cross, Incentive, Sona Sasta and Teaforthree, though Master Overseer and Michel Le Bon have scored there over hurdles.
Past Gold Cup and Grand National winners have come to the fore in this marathon: Bindaree, Cool Ground, Carvill’s Hill, Earth Summit, Master Oats, Silver Birch and Synchronised.
If there’s anything of that calibre here, it must be Teaforthree. It was a cracking Hennessy he ran in: the winner, Bobs Worth, is a Gold Cup horse and the place horses, Tidal Bay and First Lieutenant, were one-two in the Lexus at Christmas.
The only other horses with pretensions to class today are Across The Bay, who should give you a great ride from the front – favoured by the ground, but giving weight to all – Michel Le Bon, Listed second and lightly raced but with concern about the trip and ground, and Master Overseer.
Master Overseer won on heavy at Cheltenham last time and his bags of stamina won him the Midlands Grand National. He is the blot on the handicap, penalized only 4lb but due to go up 9lb. Viking Blond has the stats and the right stable on his side, if he can behave himself.
VERDICT: 1 Teaforthree, 2 Master Overseer, 3 Viking Blond. VALUE: Master Overseer was huge at 20.0 this morning in a BETDAQ list that glowed in the orange, with a probability total percentage of only 107.
DAQMAN’S BETS:
DAQ VALUE BET to win 20 points: 9pts win (nap) CAID DU BERLAIS (1.35 Chepstow)
DAQ VALUE BET to win 20 points: 6pts win ROYAL BOY (2.25 Sandown)
PLACE BET: 1pt win and 6pts place CURRENT EVENT (2.40 Wincanton)
DAQ VALUE BET to win 20 points: 1.8pts win and place URGENCE D’ESTRUVAL and 0.7pts win (stakes saver) VALCO DE TOUZAINE (3.00 Sandown)
WIN-40 JACKPOT: DAQ VALUE BET 10pts win TEAFORTHREE, 4pts win VIKING BLOND, 2.1pts win and place MASTER OVERSEER (3.20 Chepstow)
DAQ MULTIPLES: PAUL NICHOLLS’ EARLY-DAY TREBLE: 3 x 3pt win doubles and 2pt win treble Keppols Hill (1.00 Chepstow), For Two (1.15 Sandown) and Caid Du Berlais (1.35 Chepstow)
HORSES TO FOLLOW: BET 10pts win GEVREY CHAMBERTIN (2.05 Wincanton)
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