WHISPER HAS BIG SHOUT AT FFOS LAS: One of Daqman’s horses to follow, Whisper, is the nap at Ffos Las today, after running up against three top novices at the front of the markets for the Cheltenham Festival.
DAQMAN WANTS MORE CHELTENHAM ‘OVERS’: With Cheltenham in mind, Daqman is combing the ante-post cards tomorrow and Tuesday, after the success of Rocky Creek and Cappa Bleu yesterday. He wants horses that shrink in price so that he can utilize the difference (‘overs’) for laying off or making his own book.
We’ve got the ‘overs’ but we’re hungry for more. Cappa Bleu for the Grand National and Rocky Creek for the RSA Chase, both backed ante-post in this column, reduced in price after their trials yesterday.
Cappa Bleu was particularly impressive and fears that he might have left the National behind last year don’t seem justified after his excellent round and staying-on second to my bet, Vino Griego (WON 11-4), at Ascot.
He had had a hard race in the Welsh National before his fourth in the 2012 Aintree marathon, and might have been closer but for being badly hampered on the first circuit at an all-important time to lie up with the main part of the field.
We took 21.0 on BETDAQ for April 6 and Cappa Bleu is now 16.0 all round, bookmaker and exchange, and he might have shortened further had the world and his wife not heard Willie Mullins give his pair, Prince De Beauchene (runs Saturday) and On His Own, such a boost by seemingly claiming that they are both better than Hedgehunter.
No wonder they front the market together but Willie tells the Racing Post today he was comparing them ‘on the ratings’ coming into the race, which hardly accounts for performance in the race itself, when Hedgehunter and Ruby Walsh were superb.
Rocky Creek was not impressive yesterday. Owner David Johnson now sees him waiting for Aintree, and missing the RSA. Though it would still mean losing my ante-post RSA bet (he’s now 10-1 with bookies after we grabbed 16.0 on BETDAQ), I beg to differ.
For me, his jumping was deliberate and his style was ‘galloping’. That’s not an Aintree horse, but one who needs slowing down at his fences and his stamina utilised: that shouts National Hunt Chase, Cheltenham’s four-miler on the second day, depending on how well he comes out of Saturday.
Sharp-as-ever Ladbrokes agree with me and make Rocky Creek 6-1 favourite this morning, the only bookmaker to have him clear in the market. I’ll wait and see, thanks guys.
But it seems this column needs more big-odds ammunition ante-post so, in search of additional ‘overs’, I shall be looking – as previously promised – at those Cheltenham races which already have BETDAQ markets, posing the hardest question to answer.
In the next two days, I want to ask: if, as expected, the ground rides on top, after all these trials in the mud, which horses among the contenders will benefit and are therefore the ‘wrong’ odds going into the races?
Meanwhile, one of my horses to follow, Whisper (2.20), should make short work of a novice field to open at Ffos Las today.
The first three when he was fourth at Cheltenham last month are probably the top novices seen so far: At Fishers Cross, The New One and Coneygree.
Whisper had earlier been impressive over today’s course and distance, and has won on good ground and heavy, which is the very Festival theme I shall be discussing on Monday and Tuesday.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 3.7pts win TALKIN THOMAS and 1p win (stakes saver) WHITE FUSION (2.30 Market Rasen)
BET 4.4pts win BUFFALO BOB (3.20 Ffos Las)
BET 5.2pts win BAR DE LIGNE and 2.7pts win (stakes saver) THUNDERSTORM (3.30 Market Rasen)
DAQ MULTIPLES: BET 10pts win (nap) WHISPER (2.20 Ffos Las) plus 3 x 3pt win doubles and 1pt win treble Whisper with Darley Sun (2.00 Market Rasen) and Talkin Thomas (2.30 Market Rasen)
Daqman’s selections are backed to win 20 points, so you know the offer he took (divide 20 by the stake). Daq Multiples contain half-stake naps and mixed bets at recommended stakes.
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
