FIRST IT’S THE OLD DAQMAN ONE-TWO: It all started well yesterday when Saturday-king Daqman punched home first and second in the veterans’ race at Newbury, Michel Le Bon (WON 5-1) and Hey Big Spender (2nd 11-2).
THEN CAME THE KNOCK-OUT: But a brave 9-2 nap, Join Together, trialing for the Grand National, was virtually knocked out of the featured Grimthorpe Chase when another horse fell in front of him, so breaking Daqman’s nap sequence, now 2211213P.
HE’S GOT BIG ‘OVERS’ ON THE GRAND NATIONAL: However, the demise of Join Together helped harden punters resolve for Cappa Bleu and Seabass, Daqman’s ante-post bets. And Harry Topper’s fall at Kelso has left him with ‘overs’ on Buddy Bolero at Cheltenham.
CHELTENHAM COUNTDOWN STARTS WITH BETDAQ: Daqman picks up these Cheltenham changes and exchanges this morning and, from tomorrow, will be checking out the stats for the festival, including a Tuesday-Friday race-by-race stats analysis a week to the day in advance.
The form is going out of the window. As this column warned for Cheltenham, the change of surface from soft-heavy to soft-good (and still drying) was already in evidence yesterday.
The three big races were won at 15-2 (from 16-1), 14-1 and 18-1, and Festival trainers are banking on the showers forecast later this week to keep the ground raceable for many soft-ground horses.
They’ve never had it so good this long, wet winter but now face the sudden change in conditions in races at Cheltenham which are always run at a fast pace.
If you have ‘overs’ on some ante-post bets because the form has been franked on heavy ground, you may find these horses are now suspect. The answer is to keep in play on BETDAQ, which will have the better odds up to the ‘off’ and beyond.
The demise of Join Together yesterday helped tighten up our two Grand National ante-post bets, Cappa Bleu and Seabass, which we bought at big BETDAQ value, 23.0 and 16.0 respectively.
Cappa Bleu is in to 11-1 in a place, generally 14-1 with bookmakers, but still trades at 15.0 on BETDAQ this morning, as I write.
Seabass is down to 10-1 with several firms, including one of the Big Five, but he remains good value on BETDAQ at 15.5 offers against Katie Walsh becoming the first woman to ride the winner.
This morning’s strong hint from Tony McCoy that he will be on Sunnyhillboy has his odds mostly 20-1, though 23.0 offers remained on BETDAQ, at the time of writing.
McCoy is adamant that, despite Jezki’s four wins in a row and strong support in to 7-2 earlier in the week, he will ride My Tent Or Yours in the Supreme Novice Hurdle on the opening day of Cheltenham.
‘Robbie Power can have Jezki,’ says McCoy, who rates his other banker of the week, Buddy Bolero, ‘a very strong stayer’ in the National Hunt Chase on Day Two.
As a result, Ladbrokes, who were shortest at 5-2 Jezki, have extended Jezki, now seen as J P McManus’ second-string, to 100-30, and the horse eased even further on BETDAQ to 5.8 this morning.
Buddy Bolero was strong with bookmakers at 7-1 and 8-1 (9.6 on BETDAQ) after the fall at Kelso yesterday of NH Chase third favourite Harry Topper, who looks certain to bypass Cheltenham for Aintree and beyond. This column took 10.5 ‘Buddy’ ante-post on BETDAQ.
Today is traditional Cheltenham public-gallops day, and Simonsig and Grandouet are among those that can be seen at Newbury, while Quevega and Triumph Hurdle favourite, Our Conor, are at Leopardstown.
Looking On (2.30), a Supreme Novice Hurdle outsider, has leapfrogged the paper favourite, Celtic Abbey, in the BETDAQ exchanges for the opener at Huntingdon (2.30) today, his first attempt over hurdles.
And the market seems to suggest that the sounder surface is reckoned right for Midnight Macarena (3.00), in to 6.2 from a forecast 10-1, though I’d be worried that all the mare’s success has come left-handed.
The ground will help Lost Legend (3.30) and McCoy: the Jonjo gelding hasn’t been getting home on soft-heavy and has less to contend with here.
Conditions are right for Henry Hook (4.00), whose four wins have all come right-handed. To say he’s swerved the mud over the winter isn’t quite right, as the stable was under a cloud until bringing its horses back in the new year.
But he will certainly be helped by the sounder surface and by the 5lb claim of Harry Derham. His lungs are two years younger than those of his market rival, The Black Baron. In fact, half this field are a double-figure age.
If I Had Him, paper-favourite for the 4.30 handicap hurdle, drifted like a lonely dog on a raft this morning, right over the betting weir into no-no territory at 15.5.
That left favourite backers hoping that the tongue-tie first time will help Professeur Emery, another who will benefit from the drying ground.
He looked interesting when he ran up to Kumbeshwar (Sandown good) but that was a long time ago, when petrol was cheaper than gold, and backers will need a lot of trust as well as the pair of tights round his teeth.
I’ll have my pound on Tiny Tenor. He looked one paced over today’s CD last time but which horse wouldn’t behind My Tent Or Yours and he could find his voice on this surface.
I never do well at Sedgefield but I know a man who does. Donald McCain, leading trainer there, is very keen on Cloud Creeper (2.20) now that he gets better ground and returns to a longer trip.
He also feels that the quirky Polarbrook (2.50) has changed his mind-set since switching from Kim Bailey’s yard. He comes from a winner’s race at Newbury and the better ground should show him in a good light: 5.8 on BETDAQ.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 12pts win (nap) CLOUD CREEPER (2.20 Sedgefield)
BET 4.1pts win POLARBROOK (2.50 Sedgefield)
BET 3.8pts win MIDNIGHT MACARENA (3.00 Huntingdon)
BET 5.2pts win LOST LEGEND (3.30 Huntingdon)
BET 4pts win HENRY HOOK (4.00 Huntingdon)
BET 3.3pts win TINY TENOR (4.30 Huntingdon)
* Daqman’s bets are staked to win 20 points, so you know the offer he took on Betdaq (20 divided by stake)
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
