DAQMAN’S NAP WINS WITH BIG-STAKES BET: Daqman raised his stake to a huge 14 points on the nose to land his nap on Right Royale (WON 10-11) at Towcester yesterday.
NOW FOR 16.0 SATURDAY JACKPOT: Daqman forecasts a plunge on Tominator in the Cesarewitch on Saturday, so he took some 16.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
LUCKY 13 IN CESAREWITCH ABC: ‘Very few horses will get into the race.’ That’s Daqman’s prediction, as he finds only a lucky 13 with live chances fit the winning parameters for Saturday’s marathon:
A: 9 out of 13 winners had an official rating between 87 and 98
B: 8 out of 10 had won a class 2 or 3 Flat handicap at 2m or more
C: 9 out of 13 had contested the Northumberland Plate or the Ascot Stakes
D: 8 out of 13 winners were from National Hunt or mixed yards
E: 6 out of 10 were from the highest nine stalls (not included here)
I’ve got a Tom-Tom that takes me everywhere. The voice from the little screen in my car says keep on the right side. As I drove along with the Cesarewitch form turning round my brain, I’ll swear it said: ‘Keep on the right side of Jonjo.’
I believe that punters will smash into Countrywide Flame and Jonjo O’Neill’s Tominator on Saturday and, at the prices, I want some 16.0 Tominator on punter-friendly BETDAQ.
ABCD Sentry Duty Nicky Henderson pulled this off with Caracciola at age 11, and the old warrior has been given a chance by the handicapper, 10lb below his last year’s mark in the race, when he finished sixth.
But he hasn’t won a Flat race since May, 2007, nor indeed a hurdle since January, 2010, and that a three-runner non-event.
ABC Montaff Has slipped 17lb down the ratings since last year at this time, and is 24lb better off with Tominator for less than two lengths on their one-two in the 2011 Northumberland Plate.
Only fifth in the same race this year, with the ground too testing for him. Thrown in at his best but only 2-39, a poor career strike rate, and hard to bet on a revival here but stranger things have happened this season.
ABD Countrywide Flame Fabulous consistency – in the frame 17 of his last 18 runs – but lightly raced in 2012; just four starts (3121) and has a big future in the National Hunt arena.
Had stuck to the sticks for nearly a year (won the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham) until returning from absence of 155 days to prep for this with a win at Chester last month.
ABD Olympiad Only five runs on his CV and, as brother to a 1,000 Guineas winner, it was a surprise to students of breeding and form to see him score over 1m 4f at Gowran Park, and then step up on that to win readily at York over 2m. But it was no surprise to connections: he’s never been bigger than 9-2 SP all year.
The snag is that the York success – last year’s Cesarewitch winner, Never Can Tell set the pace – was on firm ground. He’s won on soft but that was only maiden company and it will be interesting to see what the wily Dermot Weld decides to do with him (I mean apart from winning at the Galway Festival in 2013)
ABD Tominator Ready earlier last year when, after Spring AW starts, he won the Northumberland Plate. Had it been this season, he would have earned full marks (ABCD) from the stats.
In fact, he didn’t get going this term until he followed up a decent effort in the Ebor with a Listed success at Chester on the first day of September. But, by deleting his initial outing and form on firm ground, I found the Generous grey to be best value in the race on form.
AB Bernie The Bolt Hasn’t won since the Shergar Cup stayers’ race more than two years ago: sixth in same event this time around, and finished 45 lengths behind the winner in last year’s Cesarewitch.
Down 10lb in consequence to similar mark to his Cesarewitch trial win in 2009, and encouraging fifth in same event this term. But only the faithful can see him hitting the target.
AB Lordofthehouse Three-year-old hat-trick winner in 2011, has been campaigned all season with this race in mind, though closely related to Classic and Group performers at 1m and 1m 2f.
A battling success over 2m at Haydock suggested that trainer Willie Haggas has got it right, and he has won on both firm and soft terrain.
AB Montaser The first four in a race at the Chester May meeting all looked to have a big future, but this is the only one that’s gone on from there, winning twice, notably when taking the 2m Brown Jack Stakes at Ascot on the firm in July.
And, though Montaser’s action is to hit the ground hard, his form has so far suggested that soft ground is not in his favour.
AB Very Good Day This son of Sinndar came good at York in July (2m), relishing the trip and, if you forgive him a blip at Goodwood (it happens to many horses on that course), he is on the upgrade.
A 5lb turnaround in the weights gives him a chance of revenge for his recent York defeat by Olympiad and he’s well in with some others on a line through the third horse home, Dazinski.
ACD Icon Dream Third in the Northumberland Plate but hasn’t won since his debut 19 races and three years ago. Meets an old foe in Tominator, who has beaten him nine lengths and 12 lengths.
AC Ermyn Lodge Only two races this season to set him up for this, just 3lb higher than when second last year. Also Ascot Stakes runner-up in 2011 so well qualified overall.
A Gassin Golf One of six left in by Sir Mark Prescott at Monday’s stage. Showed his stamina when in front of Hurricane Higgins as they filled the places behind a one-time Godolphin Group-1 colt, Rumh, at Goodwood five weeks ago.
A Repeater Prescott again, also trainer of Montaser, Gassin Golf, Motivado, Kepler’s Law and Samarkand. A mile winner last year, but stepped up in class this term, with his best run fourth in the Doncaster Cup (2m 2f), finishing well.
AB Blue Bajan, Right Stuff; AC Nafaath; A Lyric Street, Astral Thunder, Western Prize, Right Stuff, Stormy Weather,; BC Cosimo De Medici, BD Martyr, B Hurricane Higgins, C Motivado, D Beyond, Cry For The Moon, Decoy, Martial Law.
– Albert Bridge, Alhellal, I Have A Dream, Eagle Rock and Keplers Law.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 4pts win KALANI KING and 1.4pts win (stakes saver) BRASSICK (3.00 Worcester)
BET 8pts win AMAZE (4.40 Ayr)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 10pts win on each PROMPTER (nap, 5.00 Worcester) and FERJAAN (5.50 Kempton), plus 4 x 2pts win trebles and 1pt win accumulator the same two with BENNYS MIST (3.50 Exeter) and AMAZE (4.40 Ayr)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 2pts win TOMINATOR (16.0 Cesarewitch Saturday)
* Daqman’s win bets are staked to win 20 points, except in Daq Multiples.
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