BETDAQ VALUE AGAIN: TWO FOR THE PRICE OF ONE FROM DAQMAN: And the price? It’s all free and part of the service as Daqman analyses today’s Newbury card on the opening day of the Hennessy meeting.
ABC GUIDE TO THE HENNESSY: Then he runs down the card for the Hennessy itself, with his unique ABC guide to the stats on each horse. He’s already nominated Harry The Viking at 24.0 on BETDAQ ante-post.
12.25 Newbury: Paul Nicholls has won this five times in the last nine years, all favourites, and the dual Cesarewitch winner, Aaim To Prosper, is likely to head the market today.
As such a stayer on the Flat, and at the age of nine, you would expect him to need 3m over the sticks. Kings Lad is penalized and must give weight all round, and Le Reve is also bred to stay.
So maybe this is a chance for Meganisi, back on the soft and returning to his best trip, down several notches in grade. I took 3.3 this morning in a 109 list in the orange. Daq value again.
1.30 Newbury I’ve skipped the novice chase which is interesting but trappy for punters. Five of the six runners were within 3.5 points of each other on BETDAQ this morning, yet the list of offers added up to a probability of only 107%. So, if you fanced something, you were in a punter-friendly zone.
The stats suggest this 1.30 handicap hurdle is easier in that we are looking for horses aged five and six, with four-year-olds finding it difficult to give weight away and no sign of a winner from among the top weights.
Lightly-raced Polarbrook, son of Kim Bailey’s Champion Hurdle winner, Alderbrook, steps up in trip, with added aids from first-time cheekpieces, and with Timmy Murphy booked: 9.8 on BETDAQ; nice.
2.05 Newbury This is a cracking contest though whether it will throw up something like last year (Grands Crus) remains to be seen.
I put Highland Lodge in my horses-to-follow list after his ready win at Towcester. He’s the shortest of these in the markets for the RSA Chase.
Hadrian’s Approach is out of a Roselier mare so should stay forever, and Houblon Des Obeaux jumped the trappy Wincanton track superbly, with the horse he beat franking the form next time out.
But there are strong vibes this morning for Benefficient (Beneficial out of a Supreme Leader mare) who has been crying out for this 3m. He’s got his jumping together this season and loves the mud. Massive at 7.6 on BETDAQ as I write.
3.15 Newbury (Gerry Feilden Hurdle) Four-year-olds have a good record in this, getting their allowances – though Vendor has to carry a winner’s penalty – and, since it’s a Daq Value race (107%), I shall dutch Lyvius and Call Back.
3.55 Taunton David Rees, who is 2-3 with first-timers in a handicap, books Richard Johnson for Smiling Lady, returning her to a distance within her compass and on ground she likes: 8.6 is BETDAQ value.
Miss Exhibitionist and Queen’s Grove are up in the weights and, despite top weight, Queen’s Bay may be the biggest threat, as one who’s tried better class and whose first run back can be ignored. But she was very easy to back this morning.
SATURDAY 3.10 Newbury (Hennessy Gold Cup ABC) Here’s my ABC guide to the stats for the Hennessy, with each indicator logged for each horse, accompanied by a short form history.
A 12 of the last 13 winners have been aged six to eight
B 11 out of 14 have carried between 10st 4lb or 11st 4lb
C The last seven winners were rated 145 or higher
D 9 out of 10 had won class 2 or higher over 3m 1f
E 9 out of 10 had run in five or fewer handicap chases
ABCDE SAINT ARE Greatwood Hurdle third at Newbury last year but his favourite track is Aintree (form 121), where he won the John Smith’s in April (3m 1f), prompting talk that he is a Grand National horse for 2013. May not want it too soft.
ABE DUKE OF LUCCA Landed Spring novice-chase double by total of 72 lengths, one of them at Cheltenham, and terrific run back when second to Roberto Goldback in this month’s United House Gold Cup at Ascot. Now 12lb better for nine lengths.
ACDE BOBS WORTH Has always kept the best company, beating Rock On Ruby in a novice hurdle and Cue Card in a novice chase. Beaten in the Reynoldstown at Ascot but bounced back at Cheltenham, defeating First Lieutenant two-and-a-half lengths in the RSA but giving him only a pound here. Never raced on ground easier than good to soft.
ACE FIRST LIEUTENANT Wouldn’t settle in the RSA so did well to chase home Bobs Worth, with the rest strung out 11 lengths and more behind, including the disappointing Grands Crus. He recently ran a terrific second in the Down Royal Champion Chase to Kauto Stone.
ADE HARRY THE VIKING Both Saint Are and Ikorodu Road ran second to him in his novice career and he looked a horse to be reckoned with, two-lengths runner-up at level weights to Teaforthree in the 4m NH Chase at Cheltenham. Over the top in the Scottish National he was put out of his recent prep race for this by a bad mistake at Cheltenham.
AE FRISCO DEPOT Fell on his return behind Roberto Goldback and Duke Of Lucca at Ascot on his first run after being bought by the Waley-Cohens from Dessie Hughes, for whom he won a Grade-2 chase.
AE MAGNANIMITY Good novice career and a length fourth in the 2011 RSA but disappointing since, including behind Alfie Sherrin at this year’s Cheltenham festival. Though beaten 20 lengths by Sizing Europe last time out, it was a decent effort over a trip too short for him.
AE SOLL Very lightly raced but strongly fancied for the NH Chase at Cheltenham, won by Teaforthree. Not jump well until brought down 12th.
A ALFIE SPINNER Another one to run in the NH Chase, finishing fifth, being better suited to 3m, including third in the Reynoldstown (Bobs Worth second) and same position on his return at Ascot behind Roberto Goldback and Duke Of Lucca. He’s 9lb better with the winner, which is not enough on the book.
BCDE HOLD ON JULIO Didn’t run his race (joint favourite) behind Alfie Sherrin and Fruity O’Rooney at the Cheltenham Festival after beating the subsequent Grand National winner, Neptune Collonges, at Sandown but good run back at Cheltenham in October. Pulled up sole run on soft.
BCDE JUNIOR Has not lived up to the immense promise of his runaway Kim Muir win at the 2011 Cheltenham Festival. Short-headed by Ikorodu Road in the Grimthorpe in March before fell and pulled up in Aintree and Ayr Nationals. Could bounce back on a sound surface.
BCDE PLANET OF SOUND Punchestown Gold Cup winner of 2010 who has slipped down the ratings. Best run since was second in last year’s Hennessy on preferred good ground and has dropped another 6lb since.
BCD CARRUTHERS It was Carruthers who got the better of Planet of Sound in that Hennessy but he’s down 2lb on that, having failed to get within 58 lengths of the winner in his five races since, including when tried in blinkers for the Aintree Bowl in April.
BCD LION NA BEARNAI You could say he has shot up the rankings 45lb in the last two years but, in fact, a huge chunk of his ratings rise comes from his stunning success in the Ten Up Chase at Navan in February, form franked by the runner-up who was third to Teaforthree and Harry The Viking in the NH Chase at Cheltenham.
BCD THE PACKAGE Two good runs at Cheltenham Festivals – second and fourth (to Alfie Sherrin) in Speciality Trophy – were bettered by a power charge to victory in the Badger Ales at Wincanton on his first run back earlier this month.
BCE TEAFORTHREE As you’ve read already, this one won the 4m NH Chase at Cheltenham on good ground, beating Harry The Viking with Alfie Spinner fifth. Success on soft and heavy, and over 3m, suggest that going and distance are taken in his stride. And he’s 2lb lower than at the festival.
BC FRUITY O’ROONEY After Great Yorkshire third and Speciality second to Alfie Sherrin at Cheltenham, he failed to stay in the Scottish National. Had a run back over hurdles as a prep for this.
BC TATENEN Back-to-back wins in the Victor Chandler Chase at Ascot (2m 6f) but disappointing elsewhere and has dipped in the ratings overall.
CDE TIDAL BAY Mudlark who took on the best – including Big Buck’s and Long Run – given a tough agenda since his Cleeve Hurdle win at the start of 2010, but finally bounced back in tremendous style to take the Sandown Gold Cup in April, and stamped his class on a Grade-2 hurdle at Wetherby on his return at the beginning of the month.
CE ROBERTO GOLDBACK Struggled in good company, with just one small-field win since January 2010, but bounced back by beating Duke Of Lucca and Alfie Spinner in the United House Gold Cup at Ascot.
DE DIAMOND HARRY Pulled up last three starts and seemingly a shadow of the horse that won the Hennessy in 2010, though on a 13lb lower rating.
D IKORODU ROAD Knows Newbury inside out but needed seven races there to get off the mark in March after taking the Grimthorpe at Doncaster. Though bred for a marathon (Double Trigger out of a Roselier mare), he was pulled up in the Scottish National.
DAQMAN’S BETS TODAY
DAQ VALUE BET 8.6pts win MEGANISI (12.25 Newbury)
BET 2.2pts win POLARBROOK (1.30 Newbury)
DAQ VALUE BET 5pts win HIGHLAND LODGE and 3pts win BENEFFICIENT (2.05 Newbury)
DAQ VALUE BET 7.4pts win LYVIUS and 2.6pts win CALL BACK (3.15 Newbury)
BET 2.6pts win (nap) SMILING LADY (3.55 Taunton)
HORSES TO FOLLOW: Highland Lodge (2.05 Newbury)
* Daqman’s bets are staked to win 20 points, so you know the offer he took (20 divided by the stake). Daq Value marks races where the morning probability total was less than 110%
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