THREE WINNING BETS OUT OF FOUR: Daqman missed the break with a losing nap but then cut through three races on the Betdaq-sponsored Kempton Park card yesterday with Jodies Gem (WON 7-2), Kalokagathia (WON 8-13) and a lay on Rangi (2nd 6-4), his sixth successful from the last seven.

38 POINTS PROFIT ON THE DAQ: His profit on the day was 18.50 at SP but 38.50 at the Betdaq offers he took, staking to earn 20 points on each win bet, with 10 points the lay.


As well as hard graft, ‘inspiration’ helps for successful punting. Arthur Miller was once asked where he got the idea for writing one of his plays. Miller replied: ‘I don’t know but, if I find out, I’ll go there again.’

So it is with betting: if only you could just nail the source of your inspiration, and stick with it. Meantime, in the real world, you’d be a fool not to go back time after time to races and courses you do well at, and steer clear of your bogey tracks.

I keep a record of all bets. It shows that I strive manfully with Musselburgh, and I burn the midnight oil over Brighton, but the results don’t come. I’m at home at Ascot and just love Cheltenham, where I know that ‘class will out.’

Today at Kempton, we’re trying to follow up three successful races out of four on the course yesterday and we know we have a touch of class in the mile handicap (5.30); class 2, to be precise.

Docofthebay, George Guru, Grey Mirage, Nazreef and True To Form are the only winners at this level. But Bank On Me, Embankment, Grey Mirage and Storm King should all improve, as three-year-olds, in particular the least exposed, Embankment and Grey Mirage.

I’m taking out True To Form, Docofthebay and Alfred Hutchinson (yet to race right-handed), mainly on the grounds that their stables are in poor form. In any case, True To Form has never won this high in the handicap and Docofthebay’s CV reveals a zero scoring rate between December and April.

Jockeys Mark Coumbe (George Guru) and Raul Da Silva (Bank On Me) have gone a total of 79 rides and 130 days without a winner on the course; they may score today but you can’t trust your money that they’ll do so.

Nazreef is down 6lb on his last appearance at Kempton to a mark within a pound of his winning form on the course, and he bounced back last time out.

Though now handicapped to dead-heat with Embankment, Rakaan is a once-a-year horse (check it out) and has just had his 2012 win, franking the Embankment form.

There have been a lot of excuses for Grey Mirage since his success in the Spring (‘not much room,’ ‘stopped quickly’, ‘saddled slipped’) and I’m not sure he’s trustworthy.

Storm King has gone up in the ratings to a pound above his turf figure and, in fact, is more than a stone higher than for his back-to-back Kempton successes in August.

That leaves me dutching Embankment (5.0 on BETDAQ this morning) and dual course winner Nazreef (a tasty 10.2) though, as ever, I will ‘place my bets’ in the list at the foot of the column to win 20 points each.

In the class-3 over 7f (at 7.00), Roninski is like the angler who constantly draws the peg with the poor swim: he’s been in stalls 13, 11, 12 and now 11 again. He’s very hard to win with, though often in the frame, and has never scored right-handed.

Bajan Tryst, Corporal Maddox, Outpost and Poetic Dancer also have poor records right-handed, and why should they change spots now.

My hunch (inspiration?) is that Chapter And Verse may have his day. Form figures of 4322140410224 below class-2 and short of a mile give him an 84% record for getting into the frame at Kempton and a 53% place record, which suggests that a win-and-place investment is pretty much sound at 10.0 the win on BETDAQ this morning.

Well, Taunton seems to be ‘on,’ and the great good news is that all bar one race as I write (and that one sorting itself after three withdrawals) is 107% or lower as a probability total of the offers. Punter friendly, or what!

Followers of Philip Hobbs and Richard Johnson will be betting stop at a winner on Carrigmorna King (1.50) and Gas Line Boy (2.20) but I think Willoughby Hedge may better Gas Line Boy, though I may hedge if changes in the offers allow. That’s the true inspiration of BETDAQ.

DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 4.1pts win CARRIGMORNA KING and 1.3pts win (stakes saver) CHANGING TIMES (1.50 Taunton)
BET 9.7pts win (nap) WILLOUGHBY HEDGE (2.20 Taunton)
BET: 5pts win EMBANKMENT and 2.1pts win NAZREEF (5.30 Kempton)
BET 2.2pts win and place CHAPTER AND VERSE (7.00 Kempton)

* Daqman’s bets are staked to win 20 points, so you know the offer he took (20 divided by the stake).


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