NICHOLLS NAPPED FOR RETURN TO FORM ON HOME TRACK: Though Paul Nicholls hasn’t had a hurdles or chase winner in a fortnight, he is napped to return to form in the veterans’ race at Wincanton today.
If in doubt, back McCoy? The most incredible athlete of our time, the great A P has just hit 150 winners for the season, and his Towcester strike rate of 20% is typical of his reliability
If In Doubt (3.20) is one of his rides today. Thunderstorm (2.20) is another. Both are trained Philip Hobbs. Both names are appropriate to the day, with Towcester a bog after the continual rain.
And the ‘doubt’ in If In Doubt is the overall form of his trainer, Philip Hobbs, having a low-key season, and with one of the stable’s standard-bearers, Fingal Bayt, out for the duration.
Captain Chris in the Gold Cup is his best chance at Cheltenham but, despite his second to Long Run in the King George, he is out to 24.0 on BETDAQ, and the rest of the stable’s festival hopes, like Wishfull Thinking, Menorah and Duke Of Lucca don’t exactly strike fear into layers.
Scan down the Cheltenham lists of runners for the festival and Hobbs’ scene is bleak compared with the old days. But his skill has been revealed yet again by the recent 33-1 strike with Fair Along, reverting to big-time hurdles but with his chance in the World Hurdle remote. Maybe he’ll go for the Pertemps Final.
If In Doubt (3.20) is odds on this morning and we’ve seen how so many odds-on shots have come unstuck in the mud, despite strong claims like this one.
He looks good on his second to Lord Of House but was similarly one paced when runner-up in his bumper. Loxendor, on the other hand, streaked away with his bumper by 11, 8, 23, 35 and 29 lengths, though that’s passing the post and the judge would have needed binoculars in the gloom to see the last horse home when Loxendor passed his box.
Loxendor is a better price for a place than If In Doubt for the win. Of the rest of the party, only Viva Stone can be considered on form and, like If In Doubt, he seems already to need another half mile.
In Thunderstorm’s race (2.20), his only rival in the market, South Stack, also seems to be a stayer but was nimble enough to win on a tight track on top of the ground and is a CD winner on soft.
That Towcester win came off a long break and he’s back here, down in trip, following a two-months’ holiday after failing to see out 2m 5f at Kempton. His stamina will help him up the notorious final hill.
Like Loxendor, the odds-on being asked about the favourite leaves him on 6.0 this morning with BETDAQ, again with his place odds better than those for a win about the favourite.
I’m taking the place return as cover for a win bet in each case, but hoping nevertheless that that one or t’other will be the real McCoy and turn over the favourite.
The riding boot is on the other foot in the handicap chase (3.50), where punters prefer Venetia Williams’ Gorgehous Lliege to McCoy’s mount, Sentimentaljourney.
McCoy is back on this horse for the first time since a win and a second on summer ground but he does act on soft and has dived 8lb down the handicap under Richie McLernon.
Meanwhile, Gorgehous Lliege is up 9lb since his course win in December. He’s also raised in class and up in distance. Win and place again: 7.6 Sentimentalhourney.
Whatever happens to ‘Gorgeous’ (and, of course, I do mean you, Venetia), Ms Williams’ stable has laid its stall out at Wincanton, with chances in the first four races.
Paul Nichols sends boxes down the road to his local track under a cloud. He hasn’t had a winner over hurdles or fence since Fago a fortnight ago.
Both Paul (Bury Parade) and Venetia (Nobunaga) might have to take a back seat in the opener, with Parsnip Pete all the rage, after landing the money at Newbury.
But, at 5.1 this morning, I just prefer Saved By John. He was the moral at Chepstow (beaten a length giving 7lb to the winner) and has now been in the first three for 11 consecutive starts. Could make all the running.
Feature of the morning markets was opposition to David Pipe’s runners: Peut Etre Sivola (2.40) was a lonely dog on a raft, driftingover the betting weir to 27.0 as I write.
And Master Overseer, paper forecast 6-1, is 11.0 in the best race of the day, the veterans’ race (class 2 at 3.10).
Good recent form has cost Desperate Dex, with a rating 16lb higher than he’s ever won off; Pentific was hit with a stone rise after Musselburgh; Richard’s Sundance is going to have to make all the running; and Jaunty Journey hasn’t won a chase since 2009.
You know what, Paul Nicholls and Michel Le Bon look good value, even as favourite, trying for Welsh National compensation with Michel le Bon, who ran up to The Package in a Listed here in November. At 10, he’s a young horse in this field!
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 5pts win SAVED BY JOHN (1.40 Wincanton)
BET 4pts win and place SOUTH STACK (2.20 Towcester)
BET 9pts win (nap) MICHEL LE BON (3.10 Wincanton)
BET 3.3pts win and place LOXENDOR (3.20 Towcester)
BET 3pts win and place SENTIMENTALJOURNEY (3.50 Towcester)
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