‘SMOKE’ IS ON FIRE AT DONCASTER: Daqman searches out the weaker favourites today. As a result, he has a place lay at Huntingdon and he naps at Doncaster. There’s no smoke without fire, and it’s all a calculated risk on BETDAQ. Now read on..
HUNTINGDON ‘Definite signs of improvement when taking the wrong course’. I could hardly keep the cornflakes down with this justification in the trade paper of a morning favourite at Huntingdon today.
We know what the Spotlight comment means but the definite signs of improvement in Special Robon (2.05) were his leading the field at the time he ran out, not his taking the wrong course.
Punters had backed him in to 7-2 SP, and he’d started 9-4 favourite, and as low as 9-2 and 6-1, in four previous flops, in which the French import had been beaten a total of almost 188 lengths.
Venetia Williams has had four winners since the turn of the year but I can’t follow her on this one. Special Robon’s problem is that Irish Guard, Papradon and Rouge Et Blanc also like to lead. And so far they’ve all stayed on the course!
Punters have also ignored three winners, and a Paul Nicholls newcomer, and made Venetia’s Zamdy Man (3.15) favourite for the Chatteris Fen Trophy (3.15), simply because he tried a Grade 1 first time over hurdles.
The Nicholls’ horse, Brinestine, which cost £120,000, was a dog on a raft this morning, out to 8.0, suggesting this is not the one.
So, if you want to beat the favourite, you are left with 4.7 Calculated Risk and 7.2 Seventh Sign, both first-time winners, both expected to do well.
I fancy a better performance from Baby Shine (3.45), dropped out of the pattern, and taking on the old-timers Bakbenscher and Quaddick Lake.
The worry is Un Bon P’tit Gars (a ‘likely lad’). Just how likely he is away from novices at Uttoxeter we have yet to learn but we must have a saver just in case.
I laid American Legend (1.35) for a place in the opener at around evens (2.2 on BETDAQ); he’s one of those driven into the money by Tony McCoy in the autumn, but flopped next time out.
The three that followed him home in his sole success hardly advertise the form: the second has been beaten a total of 79 lengths in two races since; the third had failed 12 times before and has three ‘duck eggs’ after that race; and the fourth horse remains a maiden after 19 starts.
Smart Exit suddenly came to life in his first handicap, after being beaten 270 lengths in his half-dozen previous bumpers and novice hurdles. The handicapper has taken a dim view of that and raised him 11lb, although the time of his race was a massive 80 seconds slow.
That suggests a clash between Virginia Ash and Seymour Eric but don’t leave out Lady From Geneva, bred for the trip and getting nearly a stone from that pair.
Seymour Eric was getting lumps of weight when beating the non-stayer Market Option on Boxing Day, and doesn’t appear to have the class of Virginia Ash, named after a pub which is local to the Tizzards: the hostelry will no doubt be on to a man in Vinny’s local betting-shop.
Despite top-weight this grandson of the staying benchmark Buckskin should go on from his Plumpton win, but can he give the weight to first-time-in-a-handicap Lady from Geneva, a tasty 11.0 on BETDAQ.
DONCASTER It’s a case of something has to be favourite in Tahiti Pearl’s class-3 handicap chase at Donny (2.30). He’s been consistent enough to deserve it but is up in weight, and is back up in trip and grade.
The only time Tahiti Pearl has attempted today’s 2m 3f was over CD at Donny in November and he’s 7lb higher now, though beaten into second that day in receipt of 20lb from a horse scoring for the first time in a year.
Tahiti Pearl’s trainer, Sue Smith, is on a downer at Donny: she has a poor record (5%) in Doncaster chases and hasn’t had a winner on the course in three years.
I give a big chance to Wings Of Smoke, who was running well in the autumn until it went to their heads and they took on Simonsig at the Kempton Christmas meeting, albeit he got stuck in the mud that day.
Sacre Toi (4.35) is by the same sire as Sprinter Sacre but there the resemblance ends so far: twice a beaten favourite until a win at Kelso cost him a 7lb rise.
In fact, he’s 15lb higher than for a Newcastle success in October that caught the handicapper’s eye and prompted the two starts as favourite, and he was receiving 17lb from the runner-up when he scored at Kelso.
Schinken Otto has three black marks against him: he’s 12 now, has won only at Sedgefield for the last five years, and hasn’t put back-to-back wins together in that time.
But what makes this race an enigma is that four of the seven starters are front-runners: Qoubilai, who has plenty of weight; Jack The Gent, who goes well at Doncaster; Vosges, a long-term bridesmaid who’s won only at Musselburgh; and Sacre Toi.
This might set it up for Memorabilia, who needs to come late: he idled in front at Huntingdon and was run-out of it close home, giving nearly two stone to the winner.
DAQMAN’S BETS
PLACE LAY 10pts AMERICAN LEGEND, plus BET 5pts win VIRGINIA ASH and 1.9pts win LADY FROM GENEVA (1.35 Huntingdon)
DAQ VALUE: BET 5.2pts win (nap) WINGS OF SMOKE (2.30 Doncaster)
BET 5.4pts win CALCULATED RISK and 3.2pts win SEVENTH SIGN (3.15 Huntingdon)
BET 5pts win BABY SHINER and 1.3pts win (stakes saver) UN BON P’TIT GARS (3.45 Huntingdon)
DAQ VALUE: BET 4.6pts win MEMORABILIA (4.35 Doncaster)
Daqman’s selections are all backed to win 20 points, so you know the offer he took from the points he’s placed (divide 20 by the stake). The Daq Value races were both trading at total probability in the offers of only 108% this morning. ‘Saver’ means a bet to cover the stake on the main selection.
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