DOUBLE-YOUR-MONEY BETDAQ BET: IT’S CHELTENHAM DAY 2: The bell rings for round two of Daqman’s stats-based assessment of next week’s Cheltenham Festival, with the Wednesday card which features the RSA Chase and the Champion Chase. He’s found another ante-post bet at more than double the fixed odds.
‘VESPER’ WHISPER AT 18.0 IS BOOKIES’ 8-1 SHOUT: It’s in the National Hunt Chase that Daqman finds another gem: he compared BETDAQ offers of 18.0 Vesper Bell with the Racing Post markets list showing two firms at 8-1.
There’s another double-the-money BETDAQ bet at Cheltenham. Willie Mullins’ Vesper Bell may need the forecast rain to come in quantity but, in advance of that, the 18.0 is worth taking this morning.
Vesper Bell is a tough stayer, third in the Punchestown Grand National Trial, so Wednesday’s four-mile National Hunt Chase should wring the best out of him: 8-1 with two firms including Bet365. That’s three, six, NINE points better!
CHELTENHAM Wednesday March 13: National Hunt Chase: Yet another race at the festival which has upgraded in quality this year: 120 and 123 ratings for the winner in 2006 and 2007 became 129 at the same weight two years later but have taken an even bigger leap up the scale in the last two years.
Though Chicago Grey and Teaforthree carried the same 11st 6lb as Poker De Sivola (rating 145 in 2010), they were winning off 151 and 146 respectively, suggesting a further hike in quality.
Wednesday’s race has Back In Focus off 150, Sire Collonges 146, Rival d’Estruval 143, Buddy Bolero 142, Godsmejudge and Merry King 139; then Vesper Bell 138.
Vesper Bell is trained by Irish record-breaker Willie Mullins: 8-1 in some lists, but you could get 18.0 this morning on BETDAQ.
Vesper Bell was beaten three lengths over hurdles at the Punchestown Festival by stablemate Marasonnien, who is switched from this because he is considered good enough for the RSA Chase.
Though seven-year-olds (Buddy Bolero, Godsmejudge, Sire Collonges, Vesper Bell) are 5-4 up over eight-year-olds in this race over the last decade, those aged eight (Back In Focus, Rival d’Estruval) have a better strike-rate. Only one six-year-old (Merry King is six) has been able to win in 22 renewals.
But Jonjo O’Neill (Merry King) has won the race five times as a trainer, including a hat-trick in the early part of this century.
• Daqman’s ante-post bets: BUDDY BOLERO at 10.5. Now take VESPER BELL (1.7pts win to win 30 points)
Neptune Novices’ Hurdle: Only youngsters win this – none over the age of six – but experience counts, with winners having a background of bumpers or Points; if they haven’t had four races under Rules, then they must have been first or second in all preps.
Seven of the last eight winners had scored on the last day, and it’s neck-and-neck, 5-5, between England and Ireland.
Winners have come off ratings as low as 131 but not in recent years when 142 has been the minimum, 148 and 155 the most recent.
If anything lives up to the ranking of last year’s winner, Simonsig, it’s going to be one of these: At Fishers Cross (152), though drying ground would be a worry; The New One (also 152), Taquin Du Seuil (149) and Rule The World (148), though Willie Mullins insists that Pont Alexandre will be an even better animal on top of the ground.
• Daqman’s ante-post bets: CHATTERBOX at 20.0, RULE THE WORLD at 12.5 and MELODIC RENDEZVOUS at 18.0 but all three are also engaged in the Supreme Novice Hurdle.
RSA Chase: All winners had run in Graded chases; nearly all (7-8) have been seven years old (only two aged six have won since 1978).
All have been rated between 146 and 155, eight in a row having run in from three to five chases, and 24 of the last 25 winners having finished first or second last time out.
Dynaste would be a good thing most years off 161 and many feel the same about his chance next Wednesday, since Unioniste has reached only 153 and Rocky Creek 152, while Boston Bob has run to a personal best of 147, a stone in arrears of the favourite.
• Daqman’s ante-post bets: ROCKY CREEK at 16.0
Champion Chase: 20 out of 28 winners were aged eight or nine; only one six-year-old has won since 1973. Horses have done the double eight times since then.
First-time winners were rated between 160 and 170, which makes Sprinter Sacre just a tad overqualified off 179!
Coral Cup: Just two horses in 18 years have carried more than 11st 2lb: horses aged five to seven (5-y-o best) have won 13 times in that period.
You want only a top yard (Hobbs has won two) and a senior jockey from the top flight; most recently, Davy Russell and Barry Geraghty have won two each.
STATS PICK OF THE DAY: Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle: SIX of the last eight winners have been rated 124 to 130; SIX in the same period had the same hurdles experience: three runs each. And the last SIX had all raced within 25 days. So 666 is the number of the beast you want..
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 1.6pts win and place SIRCOZY (3.10 Fontwell)
BET 4.3pts win KAUTO D’ALOES (4.10 Fontwell)
BET 10pts win (nap) RUMBAVU (4.50 Catterick)
* Daqman’s bets are staked to win 20 points, unless otherwise stated
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
