BREEDERS’ CUP BANKER START! Daqman made it two naps in two days when, following Crazy Chic (WON 4-1) on Thursday, he landed a banker on the opening day of the Breeders’ Cup meeting at Keeneland, Liam’s Map (WON 1-2). There are more bankers today.
SIX WINNING LAYS IN A ROW: Liam’s Map put Daqman into a 1-0 weekend lead over Pricewise of the Racing Post and took the Flat-season scores to Daqman 101, Pricewise 18. Daqman also landed his sixth consecutive successful lay with Wild Storm (unplaced 5-2 fav). Sequences:
Daqman 101, Pricewise 18
11 out of 13 bankers
6 out of 6 lays
2 naps up out of three
DAQMAN VALUE BETS FROM ASCOT TO KEENELAND: Today Daqman takes on Pricewise with outsiders at home in the 2.15, 2.50 and 3.25 Ascot but with bankers tonight in the Breeders Cup in the 5.25, 6.10, 6.50, 7.30, 8.10 and 9.35 Keeneland, a full day’s racing analysis. Look out for BETDAQ value.
DAQMAN GOES FOR OUTSIDERS AT 17.0, 16.0, 14.5
12.40 Ascot Philip Hobbs, in form with a double yesterday, is hoping that a breathing op has transformed Bilbrook Blaze. Worth a pound at 15.5 in a value 107% orange on BETDAQ. I found these punter-friendly percentages in the BETDAQ markets all day.
1.45 Ascot Winners of this are young horses from the foot of the handicap, where Voix d’Eau is fancied to continue his progress. But my man in the long grass (in the ditch at Ditcheat?) reckons Anatol at 7.0 on BETDAQ as I write.
2.15 Ascot Last year’s winner, Ulck Du Lin, has 15lb more today, so being claimed off. Baby Mix, five times second from last eight starts, obviously lacks a bit of finish, and I can’t see that dropping him back in trip will improve that.
I’m a big fan of Neil Mulholland and Minella Definitely is one to catch fresh: 17.0 in the magic BETDAQ orange (103%).
2.50 Ascot Sign Of A Victory has a stone more than when scoring in this last season but finished the last campaign as runner-up in the Scottish Champion Hurdle.
David Pipe thinks Unanimite is one to catch fresh. He certainly looks well in here for one who was no beaten far in the Fred Winter at Cheltenham: 14.5 this morning.
3.05 Wetherby (Charlie Hall Chase) The 2014 success of Menorah came first run back, and trainer tries the same trick again, but he’s now rising 11.
It’s first run back, too, for Ballynagour, and he usually needs it. But Sam Winner also scored on his seasonal debut last term, and 16.0 is ‘wrong.’
3.25 Ascot For the fourth race running, last year’s winner – What A Warrior – returns but in this case has only 5lb more. Ned Stark (a cracking 9.0 on BETDAQ) goes well fresh ands tarts the season on a handy mark. Nap.
OCTOBER 31 IS VALENTINA’S DAY IN AMERICA!
LEADING JOCKEYS (Breeders’ Cup): Mike Smith (21), John Velasquez (14), Frankie Dettori (11) and Gary Stevens (10). Current US season: Javier Castellano 288, Irad Ortiz 248, Jose Ortiz 197, Rafael Bejarano 190, Luis Saez 172.
LEADING TRAINERS (Breeders’ Cup): D. Wayne Lukas 20; Bob Baffert 11; Todd Pletcher 10, Claude McGaughey, William Mott, Aidan O’Brien 9; Richard Mandella 8; Steven Asmussen, Doug O’Neill and Chad Brown 5; Andre Fabre, John Gosden 4; Freddy Head 3. Current US season: Todd Pletcher 215, Steven Asmussen 211, Jerry Hollendorfer 189, Chad Brown 175, Mark Casse 137.
Going: YIELDING (Turf), FAST (Dirt). Gates: LOW best. BARNS (in form yesterday): Todd Pletcher, Aidan O’Brien, Mark Casse, Doug O’Neill.
4.05 Keeneland (Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, Dirt) Apart from that sensational hold-up ride from a wide draw by Ryan Moore on Hit It A Bomb, the winners up to 1m 110yd yesterday came from gates 2, 3 (twice) and 4.
But it’s hard to justify a bet against three of the highest stalls in this, as America’s top three trainers, Todd Pletcher (Rachel’s Valentina), Steven Asmussen (Nickname) and Jerry Hollendorfer (Songbird) face each other in a fascinating clash of top two-year-old fillies.
Rated within a pound of each other, they are ridden by the leading Breeders’ Cup rider, Mike Smith, his nearest rival, John Velazquez, and the current top jock Stateside, Javier Castellano.
All three fillies are Grade-1 winners. All have won their last two starts. All have scored over a mile.
BETTING VERDICT: With Todd Pletcher hitting a hat-trick yesterday, I shall side with Rachel’s Valentina. Best on pedigree and, until we know the difference between the big three, we have true odds of 2-1, and I could get 5.7 Rachel’s Valentina.
YOU BEAUTY! DETTORI QUICK DOUBLE?
4.45 Keeneland (Breeders’ Cup Sprint, Turf) Bobby’s Kitten won this last year for the US turf king, Chad Brown, but he’s been raced up to a mile and more before and after that 6.5f success at Santa Anita (Undrafted third), and he could get too far behind in today’s 5.5f renewal.
Undrafted travelled to England to win the Diamond Jubilee under Frankie Dettori, and the partnership is well drawn to tuck in today.
Expect a flying finish. Frankie Dettori puts it: ‘Undaunted doesn’t like to be asked early, and I need to save up my effort until late.” Expect a flying dismount.
BETTING VERDICT: A value 4.8 Undrafted in an open orange totalling 108%. You can expect a Total SP around 120%.
5.25 Keeneland (Breeders’ Cup Filly And Mare Sprint, Dirt) Last year’s winner, Judy The Beauty, has been targeted at a repeat all season, and, in truth, you can forget her defeat by La Verdad over shorter.
Former Newmarket trainer Simon Callaghan saddles Tapis, surprisingly beaten in her prep run when she got involved in a four-way speed battle. But Cavorting, Judy the Beauty and Dame Dorothy are the Grade-1 winners.
BETTING VERDICT: Dettori again, with Judy The Beauty at 5.7 on BETDAQ as I write.
‘GESTURE’ REVENGE BUT BANK ON LEGATISSIMO
6.10 Keeneland (Breeders’ Cup Filly And Mare Turf) Legatissimo looks a banker here after winning the Newmarket Guineas and the Nassau Stakes.
There’s a duel on this card that could distract the Kentucky crowds, when Secret Gesture and Stephanie’s Kitten meet again after Ralph Beckett’s raider was disqualified in favour of that rival at Arlington in August.
BETTING VERDICT: I need maximum-stakes to support a champion here, as I did with Liam’s Map yesterday.
6.50 Keeneland (Breeders’ Cup Sprint Dirt) Front-runner Private Zone is there to be shot down by Runhappy, who you’ll see devouring the Dirt – and the horses – in a mighty dash to the line.
BETTING VERDICT: If I bet at 3-1 and 4-1 for most of the night, my fixed-profit yield will have similar stakes. I can break even with just a couple of winners; make a profit with three; any more than that, and I’ll be toasting its Kentucky homeland from my bottle of Woodford Reserve bourbon (thanks, Stacy).
IMPASSABLE FAVOURITE! OR IS THAT MAKE BELIEVE
7.30 Keeneland (Breeders’ Cup Mile, Turf) The French seem to dominate. I have previewed this race earlier in the week and found that Make Believe, winner of the French 2,000 Guineas, is back to form – in the Prix de la Foret on Arc day – at the right time and has his ground.
Impassable has a similar shape to her form. Dual winner in the Spring and back into the winner’s enclosure on Arc day at Longchamp.
She is behind on the ratings but, with Make Believe, Karakontie and Tourist all front-runners, the race could be set up for the hold-up filly Impassable under Maxime Guyon.
I shall also have a patriotic pound on David O’Meara’s Woodbine winner Mondialiste, who beat Lea in the Canada race and Lea boosted the form with second in the Dirt Mile yesterday.
BETTING VERICT: With their different styles of running, Impassable at 8.2 this morning could outpoint 3.85 offer Make Believe. Mondialiste was 15.5.
8.10 Keeneland (Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Dirt): For Impassable, read ‘impossible’ to compare two-year-old winners from New York to California.
I thought I’d choose from the trainers in form, Mark Casse (Conquest Big E and Siding Spring), Doug O’Neill (Nyquist) and Aidan O’Brien (Waterloo Bridge).
BETTING VERDICT: But then I argued that a Grade-1 Futurity winner over today’s CD must be worth a punt: Brody’s Cause at 6.0
GOLDEN HORN TO MAKE IT A NIGHT OF NIGHTS
8.50 Keeneland (Breeders’ Cup, Turf) Six of the home defenders are no-hope pensioners, according to the history of the race. No horse has won this older than five since 1983, and European raiders have won 11 of the 15 Breeders Cups this century. It seems to leave Found as the only challenger to Golden Horn.
BETTING VERDICT: It’s a night of nights for the Brits. By now I’m well into the bourbon, and playing up my winnings on Golden Horn, who needs no introduction from me.
9.35 Keeneland (Breeders’ Cup Classic, Dirt) The glass is raised to Aidan O’Brien with incredulity. He seems prepared to eat dirt to prove a point here with Gleneagles, and not just for the craic.
BETTING VERDICT: With negatives in the Stateside Press about American Pharoah, easing his offers to around the 2.0 mark, I can punt my support for O’Brien’s adventure at 12.5 Gleneagles on BETDAQ this morning and save on the favourite.
DAQMAN’S BETS (England, staked to win 20 points. America, staked to win 30 points, except bankers)
BET 1.4pts win and place BILBROOK BLAZE (12.40 Ascot)
BET 3.3pts win ANATOL (1.45 Ascot)
BET 1.25pts win and place MINELLA DEFINITELY (2.15 Ascot)
BET 1.3pts win and place SAM WINNER (2.05 Wetherby)
BET 1.4pts win and place UNANIMITE (2.50 Ascot)
BET 2.5pts win (English nap) NED STARK (3.25 Ascot)
BET 6pts win RACHEL’S VALENTINA (4.05 Keeneland)
BET 8pts win UNDRAFTED (4.45 Keeneland)
BET 6pts win JUDY THE BEAUTY (5.25 Keeneland)
GOLD BANKER: BET 30pts win (American nap) LEGATISSIMO (6.10 Keeneland)
BET 9pts win RUNHAPPY (6.50 Keeneland)
BET 4pts win IMPASSABLE and 2pts win MONDIALISTE (7.30 Keeneland)
BET 6pts win BRODY’S CAUSE (8.10 Keeneland)
GOLD BANKER: BET 30pts win GOLDEN HORN (8.50 Keeneland)
BET 2.6pts win on each GLENEAGLES and (stakes saver) AMERICAN PHAROAH (9.35 Keeneland)
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