IT’S THE RETURN OF THE CHAMPIONS: It’s a big day at the races, with the return of Sprinter Sacre – ‘best since Arkle’ some say – and the return, too, of the Daqman v Pricewise challenge, with Daqman currently 13-8 up on the season (121-67 overall).

BULL’S-EYE TWO OUT OF TWO: It’s also the return of the Bull’s-Eye Bets, with two big-race winners in 2015 already, and both banker and lays are also on a sequence as follows:

LAYS: 9 in a row
BANKERS: 3 in a row
BULL’S EYE BETS: 2 from 2 races (profit 76.50)

SPRINTER? HE NEEDS 21 MONTHS FOR 2 MILES

We’re hoping for a glimpse of his old self. If he’s in contention but is beaten at the second last, it will be acceptable and we’ll then head him ‘home’ to Cheltenham for the Champion Chase.

This forecast for Sprinter Sacre today from a man as close as you can get to the Henderson bandwagon ‘doesn’t think the wheels will come off this time’ but he will ‘come on a ton for it,’ having been trained as hard as we can ‘without asking him to cross the pain barrier.’

The 10-wins-in-a-row champion hasn’t been seen at his best since April 2013, almost 21 months ago and, in his last ‘comeback’, had to be pulled up at Kempton in December that year.

Those who bet blind on official ratings see him (last race on 188) some 23lb and more in front of Twinlight and Dodging Bullets, but that would be a false reckoning where Dodging Bullets is concerned, as he’s an emerging chaser, with only eight runs behind him over fences and improvement of 10lb last year.

Twinlight, on the other hand, has had 16 chase starts and his rating is static over the last year. But he does love heavy ground.

And that soft-heavy ground (showers due on soft) is the final nail in the wanted poster for Sprinter Sacre: get him! He’s a lay, as a comeback horse having to race in the mud.

They don’t want a slog but the opposition is sure to make it so, if they can.

Barry Geraghty will have to get a feel of the horse’s attitude when the first fences are jumped, then decide how much he needs looking after (go into contention, pull him up, or something in between). It’s as much down to the mental state of this horse as his race-rust and fitness.

The great benefit of betting on BETDAQ comes into its own. We won’t know much about Sprinter Sacre until the race is under way. Between now and then, common sense should prevail in the market, so I see him as a lay and bet, easing before the off; maybe closing again if he takes to the task when the action begins.

I can’t join in this great adventure of trading from now until the winning post. I have to tip what’s value over my cornflakes. And this morning I have to pour cold milk on Sprinter’s chances and say ‘a lay’ at the odds on, taking Dodging Bullets at around 4.0 to win, in effect by default. Here is what my normal summary would be, if this were a normal race:

3.00 Ascot (Clarence House Chase) Dodging Bullets’ trainer, Paul Nicholls, landed a hat-trick in the race with the maestro two-milers Master Minded and Twist Magic.

The last two winners, Sprinter Sacre amd Sire De Grugy, have gone on to take the Champion Chase crown at Cheltenham, picking up the trail of Viking Flagship who had done the double in the 1990s.

Sprinter Sacre was a monster until pulling up at Kempton over Christmas in 2013 and some say he is (was?) the best since Arkle.

But no horse has won this as a nine-year-old in the seven renewals since it ceased to be a handicap in 2007, and I can’t find another winner of this that’s taken 21 months to jump two miles!

Dodging Bullets staked his claim by taking another stepping-stone to the Champion, the Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown last month, beating the supreme benchmark Somersby.

Somersby was third to Sprinter Sacre in today’s race in 2013, second to Sire De Grugy in that year’s Tingle Creek and second to him again in the 2014 championship at Cheltenham.


TOP NOTCH BANKER OF THE DAY AT ASCOT

12.40 Ascot All three of Nicky Henderson’s runners in this since 2008 have won, including a future Champion Hurdle winner, Binocular, who was second in that year’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. He also had Grandouet win this before going on to be third in the Triumph Hurdle.

Top Notch is the real banker of the day for Henderson, after shrugging off a penalty at Newbury. And he’s a good one for us, because he will get back half our lay expenditure, should Sprinter Sacre win.

1.15 Ascot Village Vic has been off longer than Sprinter Sacre, while Clondaw Draft and Vivaccio have winning form only on a sounder surface.

So the way seems open for Kings Lad, who jumped superbly at Fontwell for a resurgent Colin Tizzard, who has had 13 in the first four from his last 16 runners still standing.

1.50 Ascot Harry Fry, who won this last year with Highland Retreat, saddles Bitofapuzzle, who in fact is not so much a puzzle: she won her first four starts under Rules, always suggesting, particularly in defeat on Boxing Day, that she needs today’s step up to 3m.

Officially, she has plenty to find with Mischievous Milly, Land Of Vic and Carole’s Spirit (the trio rated up to 19lb higher).

But ‘Milly’ has already been beaten by Dark Spirit, Land Of Vic got his lofty rating from handicapping, and Carole’s Spirit likes to be at the front of affairs so may not last out, giving the others 5lb.

2.25 Ascot (Holloway’s Hurdle) Team Pipe’s hat-trick in this was largely due to that tough old bird, Lough Derg, but the stable has raised a young flag here in Willem, same age as the last two winners.

Yet again, after Clondaw Draft and Village Vic, and before Sprinter Sacre, we have one returning after a long, long absence. Willem hasn’t run since he fell at Auteuil, so he’s not had a successful race since May last year, and that only in the French provinces.

He gets in off a featherweight and he gets a big word from David Pipe but, for me, he shouts ‘Cheltenham Festival handicap’ in my face.

He has a big hurdle at Newbury as his next step and might well be the Pipe attempt at a handicap double with Cheltenham the second leg for a bonus prize.

It will be interesting to see whether Rayvin Black can be restrained; otherwise, I can’t see him front-running the whole of this trip in the conditions, though he wasn’t stopping at the end of Sandown’s two miles.

Betting the potential of Willem is without current evidence but there were witnesses at Newbury who thought that Le Mercurey would have gone close to beating L’Ami Serge had it not been his comeback run and had his jockey not feared he had lost his action.

He was trying to give 17lb to L’Ami Serge but is getting 10lb here form the admirable Garde La Victoire.

3.35 Ascot Niceonefrankie is up 20lb for back-to-back success since November, and some idea of his task today is judged on his 28lb turnaround with King Edmund, whom he beat 12 lengths over shorter on today’s course.

At the weights, King Edmund is ‘the same horse’ as Tenor Nivernais on their one-two at Kempton in November, with that one getting dead on a stone from ‘Frankie’ today.

Tenor Nivernais and Niceonefrankie are stablemates. I’m told that those in the yard are divided as to who will come out best, but the soft-ground horse in receipt of all that weight clearly has the advantage, and is a nice price at 7.8 offers on BETDAQ this morning.

A fantastic 103% list of offers in the orange means that I can back two. I must also be on the improving Ballinvarrig at 8.2 as a mud-loving stayer, dropping back in trip, so with every chance of bossing the finish.


BENBENS A FREELOADER FOR ME AT HAYDOCK

3.15 Haydock (Peter Marsh Chase) I’m surprised to see The New One (2.05) out again in the bad ground today. You’d think they don’t expect to win the Champion Hurdle and want to glean all the intervening trials.

Unbackable, unlayable. That’s about the size of the entire Haydock card. But we’ll try to dissect the Peter Marsh and see if there are any bones of a bet.

I’m told that Pricewise has tipped the non-runner, Broadway Buffalo (I don’t usually look at his pick until I’ve made my own). But I shall not feel bad if I can count a winner in this, for the following reason.

After religiously tipping in every race chosen by him, I missed the Dan Moore Memorial at Fairyhouse last Sunday, in which his Abbey Lane finished last. He owes me one.

From 1998 to 2007, eight out of nine runnings of the Peter Marsh went to horses carrying below 10st 13lb. Leapfrog three renewals and the trend returned last season.

In any case, Hey Big Spender is 9lb higher than for his last success with the heavy ground to anchor him. Corrin Wood has won only small-field races (three, four runners) over fences but has been dropped few pounds despite performing well in his comeback runs at Sandown and Wetherby (Rowland Meyrick third).

Green Flag was raised (pun intended) to Listed and Graded level after a hat-trick in novice chases at the backend of 2013. No show so far.

Shangani returned to form at Kempton over Christmas but that prompted the handicapper to put his rating higher than he’s ever won off, and his big success – the Greatwood Gold Cup on heavy ground last March – was over a shorter distance.

Benbens, who found the Welsh National a trip too far, would have been 7lb better with Broadway Buffalo, though he beat that one over today’s trip at Cheltenham in November.

Toby Lerone had a 2lb turnaround, and an extra furlong, with which to avenge his four-lengths defeat by the Buiffalo in the Tommy Whittle here on heavy a month ago.

Simplistically, my poor maths give Benbens 10lb on Toby Lerone today, on the collateral form of those two races against the Buffalo at Cheltenham and Haydock.

No Planning has been placed in 11 of his 14 chases. Callum Bewley has claimed off, and won on, No Planning but only over hurdles. Sue Smith’s gelding won over 3m on this course two grades lower in April, shooting him 10lb up the handicap.

Sue also runs Vintage Star, second in this race last year off a 4lb higher mark and a stone better off with Hey Big Spender on their first and third in the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle in November. Samstown was coshed with a 16lb rise for a runaway win in a novice chase at Ayr in April and, additionally, has breathing problems, unless something has been done about it in the 36 days since he ran at Cheltenham.

Benbens and Vintage Star, at 7.2 and 10.0. respectively, are with stables which excel with marathon runners and, with the BETDAQ orange showing a 105% total, I can dutch the two.

DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points at the offers on BETDAQ at the time of making the selections, except banker and lay)
BANKER: 20 points win (nap) TOP NOTCH (12.40 Ascot)
BET 10pts win KINGS LAD (1.15 Ascot)
BET 6pts win BITOFAPUZZLE (1.50 Ascot)
BET 6pts win LE MERCUREY (2.25 Ascot)
LAY 10pts SPRINTER SACRE at evens or less and BET 10pts win DODGING BULLETS (3.00 Ascot)
BULL’S-EYE BETS (to win 50): 8pts win BENBENS and 5.5pts win VINTAGE STAR (3.15 Haydock)
BULL’S-EYE BETS: 7.3pts win TENOR NIVERNAIS and 6pts win BALLINVARRIG (3.35 Ascot)


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