SUPERNAP DOUBLE AND 20-1 ASCOT HIT: Daqman has nine bets to six for Pricewise as they tackle Ascot Champions Day, with the scores Daqman 81, Pricewise 20, and a gap of 326 points between them to a single-unit stake. Daqman is so confident he goes for TWO Supernap bets (20 point stakes) and tips an outsider at 20.0 on BETDAQ.
VERMEER’S ONLY THIRD IN AUSTRALIA: Aidan O’Brien must take on Storm Brian at Ascot if he is to land Group 1 number 25 after Johannes Vermeer finished third to a 50-1 shot in this morning’s Caulfield Cup in Australia. O’Brien, who has already won more than £7m, is tipped by Daqman to win the opening race but it’s only Group 2. Silvestre De Sousa will be crowned champion jockey.
‘ORDER’ PENNIES FROM HEAVEN
Saved for a rainy day. There are those in the five championship races who are strongly favoured by the stormy weather (soft +) and those who may not like the ground (minus); the rest have won on different goings. The draw may have a say in the outcomes.
I have picked out the horses in each race best served by, or best ignored because of, the stalls bias, as far as it is known.
1.25 Ascot (British Champions Long-Distance Cup) Favourites won this year on year until 2012 when a series of odd results involving older horses were sprung on us. So the favourite is long overdue a return to the winner’s enclosure.
LOW DRAW BEST: Stars Over The Sea, Cap’N and Dartmouth.
SOFT PLUS Duretto, Order Of St George
SOFT MINUS: Big Orange, Sheikhzayedroad, Stars Over The Sea, Stradivarius (?).
VERDICT Though he’s won on heavy going, it takes a leap of faith to go with Group-3 performer Duretto, who steps up to 2m for the first time at the age of five.
Big Orange is definitely disadvantaged by the ground and Stradivarius has won only on a sound surface. His form with ‘soft’ in the going return is 043, but that third was when staying on well in the St Leger (officially good to soft).
He and Mount Moriah are the improvers of the race but three-year-olds have drawn a blank in the last seven years
The rain is pennies from heaven for Order Of St George who has beaten Dartmouth, Mount Moriah, Stars Over The Sea and Torcedor this season.
ANGEL ON FORM, GOING AND DRAW
2.00 Ascot (British Champions Sprint) Six out of 10 in the decade won from a high number on soft or softish ground; and only one of the four low-stalls winners was scoring on soft.
Three of the first four home in 2015 were three year olds, with The Tin Man (fourth) stepping up to the top of the podium last season, when four-year-olds had five of the first six to finish.
The big Royal Ascot sprints are the best guides, along with the Haydock Sprint, won this year by Harry Angel from Tasleet, who was runner-up to The Tin Man in the Diamond Jubilee.
Caravaggio had beaten Harry Angel in the Commonwealth Cup at the royal meeting, and is supported in the race by three others saddled by Aidan O’Brien.
HIGH DRAW BEST Caravaggio, Donjuan Triumphant, Harry Angel, Intelligence Cross.
SOFT PLUS Alphabet, Brando, Caravaggio, Donjuan Triumphant, Harry Angel, Quiet Reflection, Tasleet,
SOFT MINUS: Intelligence Cross, Washington DC
VERDICT: I expect Donjuan Triumphant to take along Harry Angel and Caravaggio, and ‘Harry’, who has moved ahead in the ratings, 4lb clear of Caravaggio, has now left the others at least 8lb behind.
20.0 ALYSSA SURPRISE ON SOFT
2.40 Ascot (British Champions Fillies and Mares Stakes) Four of the last seven winners were drawn low and, significantly, two of the three successful from a high draw went across and took an early lead or headed the chasing pack to get a good position at the bend, a stamina-sapping thing to do on a soft surface.
Three-year-olds have the best record; horses over the age of four have only a remote chance. The going records show that one of the low drawn, Bateel, is a soft-ground lover:
LOW DRAW BEST Bateel, Horseplay, Left Hand.
SOFT PLUS Alyssa, Bateel, The Juliet Rose,
SOFT MINUS: Journey, Wild Irish Rose
VERDICT: Aidan O’Brien, who has never won this, relies on Hydrangea. John Gosden, who trains Journey, also has Ribblesdale winner Coronet and Lancashire Oaks scorer The Black Princess left in.
No outright favourite has won and two shock results came when the ground was very soft or heavy. That brings in the progressive 20.0 BETDAQ offer Alyssa, who showed her ability to quicken on the soft when taking the Park Hill Stakes.
ONE TO BANK ON FOR A PLACE
3.15 Ascot (Queen Elizabeth 11 British Champions Mile) Three-year-olds have won it 29 times since 1971. Those drawn in high stalls (over seven) tend to be thrown wide and have to tuck in behind.
HIGH DRAW MINUS: Al Wukair, Beat The Bank, Breton Rock, Lightning Spear, Nathra, Ribchester, Thunder Snow, Zonderland
SOFT+ Here Comes When, Nathra, Ribchester, Sir John Lavery
MINUS on soft: Lightning Spear, Toscanini, Zonderland
FORM: Churchill hasn’t shone since his two Guineas and, though he’s won on good to soft, we simply don’t know whether he can cope with it any softer, whereas Al Wukair, only a length or so off him in the Newmarket Guineas, has since scored in the mud at Deauville.
Here Comes When beat Ribchester at Goodwood, with Lightning Spear, Toscanini and Lancaster Bomber behind, but his trainer, Andrew Balding, has an improver in the race, Beat The Bank, who is higher in the ratings now and is strong on soft ground.
The handicapper says that the fillies, Sea Of Grace, Persuasive and Nathra, are well behind the colts.
VERDICT: I reckon the improver, Beat The Bank (6.0 on BETDAQ early mouse) is the main threat to the champion, Ribchester.
THE WORD IS TO FOLLOW STOUTE
3.50 Ascot (Champion Stakes) The race has been dominated by older horses (five-year-olds 4-7), and the two outside stalls are pretty much killers.
HIGH DRAW MINUS: Highland Reel, Success Days
SOFT PLUS Brametot, Cracksman, Recoletos, Success Days
SOFT MINUS: Barney Roy, Highland Reel
FORM: Cracksman is reckoned a horse for next season, and Brametot, like Churchill, has to bounce back to early-season Guineas and Derby form in France. Barney Roy may be beaten by the ground.
VERDICT: I’m again going for a progressive horse and, mindful of the modest form of three-year-olds in this race, shall opt for Sir Michael Stoute’s Poet’s Word, a win and place at 8.0 on BETDAQ as I write. Has never been out of the first four.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.25 Ascot (SP)
SUPERNAP: 20pts win ORDER OF ST GEORGE
2.00 Ascot (SP)
SUPERNAP: 20pts win HARRY ANGEL
2.40 Ascot (to win 50 at 20.0)
BULL’S-EYE BET: 2.5pts win and place ALYSSA
BET 2.5pts win (stakes saver) BATEEL
3.15 Ascot (to win 30)
BET 6pts win and place BEAT THE BANK
BET 6pts win (stakes saver) RIBCHESTER
3.50 Ascot (to win 30)
BET 4.25pts win and place POET’S WORD
4.30 Ascot (to win 20)
BET 5pts win ZABEEL PRINCE
BET 1pt win and place LINGUISTIC
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