39.0 ANTE-POST CHELTENHAM TILT: Daqman goes all out today for a Triumph Hurdle trading position with 39.0 and 7.8 on BETDAQ for the race at Cheltenham in March, assuming that one or both can take the trials which open Sandown today, including the aptly named Contenders Hurdle. He smashes into them to win 100 points and 40 respectively.
22.0 WELSH CHAMPION HIT TODAY: Today he has a 22.0 shot in the Welsh Champion Hurdle and 9.6 in the West Wales National. All bets in these two races are Bull’s-Eye Bets to win 50 points. He tackles Pricewise tips in the 2.05 and 2.40 Ffos Las and the 3.35 Sandown. Daqman’s current state of play is:
Bull’s-Eye Bets 2015 (staked to win 50 points): profit 56.00
Lays results: 11111111111
Lays profit: 110 points to 10pt level stakes
Bankers results: 111111
Bankers profit: 99.81 to 20pt level stakes
2015 Challenge: Daqman 14, Pricewise 8
Overall (since 23 November, 2013): Daqman 122, Pricewise 67
NO PAIN NO GAIN AT CHELTENHAM 39.0
12.40 Sandown Paul Nicholls is going for a fourth win-win Saturday but Alan King could kick start his day here with Pain Au Chocolat.
Nicholls worries about the ground for Old Guard, who got stuck in the mud last time and is on a handicap-qualifying mission here, while The Saint-James has good form but must transfer it from France at the first time of asking.
Second and fifth to Pain Au Chocolat at Plumpton have won since, and Million In Mind syndicate punters are banging on to me about the Triumph Hurdle.
You can get 39.0 on BETDAQ this morning for the Cheltenham race. A solid success today would probably halve those offers and you can save your ante-post stake with a pound on at Sandown.
1.15 Sandown (Contenders Hurdle) The grey gelding Bristol de Mai misses the opener, which is for his own age group, to take on senior hurdlers in this Listed, with connections hoping that the four-year-olds’ allowance will be enough to bridge the gap.
Ratings-wise, the answer is ‘yes’, with the three principals running off the following adjusted marks (always raise each horse to 12st to get an accurate picture): Bristol De Mai 170, Garde La Victoire 164, Jollyallan 161.
Garde La Victoire is officially top, running off 154 today, whereas the last three winners (Binocular (back-to-back wins) and Celestial Halo were on 163, 163 and 171.
So Bristol de Mai has a big chance in a lesser contest. He beat Karezak six lengths before that one ran Peace And Co to three lengths in the Triumph Hurdle Trial at Cheltenham last week.
Bristol de Mai is offered at 7.8 this morning for the Triumph and, if he wins today, like Pain Au Chocolat, he will be well down in price. I’ll back him to win 40 at Cheltenham and save on him in the race today.
2.25 Sandown (Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase) I warned earlier in the week that, though seven straight favourites have won this, and they have been gambles at Cheltenham, all have come unstuck at the festival.
And we don’t even know what will be favourite at the ‘off’, with Irish Saint and Champagne West within 0.15 points of each other in the BETDAQ market this morning.
My interest in the race is that Irish Saint’s Henry V111 Chase form (third) at Sandown in December represents winning stablemate Vibrato Voltat, whom I’ve backed for the Arkle at 15.5 on BETDAQ (see Archive).
3.00 Sandown It would be unusual to see horses of a double-figure age involved in the finish of this and, in fact, there’s been no winner of any age carrying more than 10st 12lb. Polamco (5.5 on BETDAQ this morning) fits the bill and is on the upgrade.
3.35 Sandown There’s No Panic drops back from his London National winning distance. Just A Par has a hood round his blinkers. Le Reve has his ground and has already beaten some of these: tasty 7.8 on BETDAQ this morning.
22.0 KAYF MOSS HAS CHAMPION CLASS
2.05 Ffos Las (Welsh Champion Hurdle) Only horses aged five and six have won this, which cuts the field to five, if the stats for just two runnings have set a trend. I certainly don’t want to be on anything aged 9, 10 or 12, particularly in these conditions.
The two winners had both done well already at class 2 and Listed level, recommending Kayf Moss, Silsol and Awaywiththegreys though this grey is a grinder, a once-a-year winner who needs 3m in a bog. And Chepstow.
First-time blinkers may help get him an early position, and there are several front or van runners in the race so the pace should be strong.
Paul Nicholls’ punters will forgive Silsol his last-day lapse but, if you examine his winning sequence, he only ever beat the odd quality horse; most of the time he finished in front of dross, a Forest Gump taking the term prize at school, this is his big exam against senior boys.
Kayf Moss is a Graded-race winner but his poor run back in November is off-putting. On the other hand, he’s won his last two starts at Ffos Las and has been given plenty of time to come right; his breaking blood-vessels in November will have been rectified.
In the National Spirit Hurdle at Fontwell last February, Kayf Moss had World Hurdle contender Saphir Du Rheu well beaten in fourth. He was completing a hat-trick that day which shot him 43lb higher in the ratings but is still nicely positioned in this handicap if back on song.
Puffin Billy and David Pipe’s Virtuel D’Oudon are pretty tough types, returning to hurdles from chasing. Pipe gives himself a second chance via Taj Badalandabad.
I imagine Tanya Stevenson has been rehearsing all morning to pronounce that one. Or not.
Foryourinformation was impressive when winning his maiden over CD on heavy but has very little experience and is thought to need good ground to be at his best.
Foryourinformation and Little Boy Boru look good on their proximity to Tea For Two. Snag is, what did they have behind them? In fact, Foryourinformation finished last.
Oscar Sunset is another with potential, but he, too, will have to show it today, up a grade and raised more than a stone since November. A Doll In Milan will carry a featherweight.
VERDICT: This race is form-in-the-book versus potential. Potential means backing emergent novices. Classy form has won it so far, but that has to be hoping that Kayf Moss (22.0 on BETDAQ this morning) is back to his best.
Virtuel D’Oudon (I took 11.5), who will be suited to the race, is probably best of the David Pipe runners, Tom Scu having said that he doesn’t see Taj Tanya (sorry, Badalandabad) as an out-and-out stayer. I’ll have to put a pound on that one, though, under the rule of having to back what I consider the stable’s second string.
KEAN EDGE TO THE WEST WALES NATIONAL
2.40 Ffos Las (West Wales National) As you’d expect in a marathon being run for the third year in succession on heavy ground, lightweights are to the fore, winning both previous runnings off 10st 8lb and 10st 5lb.
Venetia Williams, who won it last year, with the gambled-on Emperor’s Choice, had four still in at the five-day stage, three in the range 10st 3lb to 10st 8lb, choosing to declare Tarraco (blinkered first time) and Gorgehous Lliege.
Both previous winners had already won at the trip on heavy. Gorghoise Lliege has done just that but will carry 6lb more. Tarraco is also up in the weights for winning here at Ffos Las in November and has never raced beyond 3m 2f.
Conditions are ideal for the lightly-raced Global Power, who has been joining issue at the business end over shorter, as if today’s trip is also ideal.
The owner of Edmund Kean also owns the track and he, the horse that is, was a useful novice against small fields but, despite a change of stable, has not yet coped with senior handicap company.
Ziga Boy looked good when he won the Silver Buck Chase at Wincanton in December and was an unlucky faller in the Mandarin. Seems to act on any ground.
Blinkers have improved Smiles For Miles. That’s put him up in the weights and he’s up in grade, though – at seven – should find a bit more. King Massini’s best performances are on better ground.
Loch Ba is back to form (but unpredictable) and still runs off a mark lower than for the year leading up to his Grand National Trial third at Haydock last February.
VERDICT: Global Power (6.6 on BETDAQ early mouse) missed the Hennessy, and was balloted out of his revised target, the Welsh National. He should be good enough here, though we have to watch our backs as Edmund Kean (9.6) will have been ‘got up’ for this, since his owner also owns the racecourse.
DAQMAN’S BETS (Staked as described)
BET 10pts win (nap at SP): PAIN AU CHOCOLAT (12.40 Sandown)
BET 10pts win (at SP): BRISTOL DE MAI (1.15 Sandown)
BET (to win 20 points): 4.4pts win POLAMCO (3.00 Sandown)
BET (to win 20 points): 3pts win LE REVE (3.35 Sandown)
BULL’S-EYE BET (to win 50 points): 4.75pts win VIRTUEL D’OUDON and 2.3pts win and place KAYF MOSS, with 1pt (saver) TAJ BADALANDABAD (2.05 Ffos Las)
BULL’S-EYE BET (to win 50 points): 8.8pts win GLOBAL POWER and 5.8pts win EDMUND KEAN (2.40 Ffos Las)
ANTE-POST (Triumph Hurdle): BET (to win 100 points): 2.6pts win PAIN AU CHOCOLAT, and today 1.5pts (stakes saver) PAIN AU CHOCOLAT (12.40 Sandown)
ANTE-POST (Triumph Hurdle): BET (to win 40 points): 5.8pts win BRISTOL DE MAI, and today 4.8pts (stakes saver) BRISTOL DE MAI (12.40 Sandown)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 3pts win double and 1pt win treble PAIN AU CHOCOLAT (12.40 Sandown), BRISTOL DE MAI (1.15 Sandown) and POLAMCO (3.00 Sandown)
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