THE CENTURY COMES IN THE CUP: Daqman manned it out and nailed it in the best possible way yesterday. He went maximum stakes with a banker on Estimate (WON 11-8) in the Doncaster Cup to land his 100th win against 36 for Pricewise of the Racing Post in their big-race challenge.
AT FIRST, GLORY SLIPPED AWAY: The champagne had already been uncorked as they raced to the line in the opening race on Town Moor but, with Daqman’s tip, Cotai Glory, two lengths clear, the colt dislodged his jockey and threw the race away at 6-1.
TON-UP PORTLAND ATTACK: Starting today, Daqman goes on the attack with the big offers in handicaps at the main meetings, with bets to win 100 point and 50 points, his Ton-Up and Bull’s-Eye gambles. Look out in the Portland Handicap today.
LEGER FORECAST: SNOW AND WIND
Reach for the Sky! I’ve changed my mind several times – the race seems so open – but, in the end, the decision when it’s close always has to rest with the stable in form. St Leger week so far has gone the way of Sir Michael Stoute. That’s a fact, not an estimate.
Stoute’s skill is to improve them both physically and mentally. Snow Sky has run well in the key races to this, the Gordon Stakes and the Great Voltigeur, the boy becoming more of a man between the two.
On form, where he is Hartnell and Windshear must be. Hartnell’s stamina is assured (won the Queen’s Vase) but his form dipped at York and he has to bounce back. His yard hasn’t had a decent winner in three weeks.
Windshear is a bridesmaid, always staying on, but looking more a Cup horse for next year, likely to be run down for speed at this trip and on this ground. He’s managed to get himself beaten five times out of six this season, and Team Hannon is better known for milers. Windshear’s sire has got Group-3 at best.
Kingston Hill is the one with the Classic form but there must be some doubt about his stamina for this, with his sire’s get best at a mile and a quarter.
The colt came away from the Epsom Derby field with the winner, Australia (Romsdal behind), but Australia has been kept to that mile-and-a-quarter trip since then, apart from beating his stablemate, Kingfisher, in a poor field for the Irish Derby.
It seems significant that Australia and Kingfisher are both at Leopardstown tonight for the Champion Stakes. Aidan O’Brien relies on Granddukeoftuscany for the Leger but he has to improve a stone in my book.
John Gosden is talking up Forever Now rather than Romsdal but Frankie Dettori’s mount is another who needs to improve the proverbial stone to win this.
My ABC Guide was in last Monday’s column (see Archive). My bet is Snow Sky at 7.4 on BETDAQ this morning. My 1-2-3: Snow Sky 1, Windshear 2, Kingston Hill 3.
PORTLAND: CAN HE OUT DO MUTHMIR?
2.05 Doncaster (Champagne Stakes) Another Team Hannon two-year-old hit the mark again yesterday when Beacon bagged the Flying Childers on the demise of Cotai Glory, and the Hannons are on a delayed hat-trick in this race (no runner last year) after Trumpet Major (2011) and Toronado (2012).
Toronado would win the Sussex Stakes the following year but last term’s Champagne hero, Outstrip for Charlie Appleby, got a much quicker return, taking the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in the same season.
Though giving away 3lb for winning a Group-2 at Newmarket, the Hannon horse this year, Estidhkaar, still looks a formidable opponent, having thrashed future Solario winner, Aktabantay in that HQ race, nearly seven lengths in front of the third horse, Cock Of The North.
Since Cock Of The North was little more than four lengths off top two-year-old, The Wow Signal, in the Coventry, that is form indeed.
Ballydoyle’s War Envoy seems, like The Great War, to have gone off the boil. This is not a race Aidan O’Brien favours, though he did win it with Super Pistachio (2008) and went close a year later with Viscount Nelson.
Gleznalmond finished in front of Beacon in the Gimcrack, Room Key was third in a Group 2 at Goodwood and Belardo was fourth in the July Stakes before taking the Washington Singer.
Aces has a stone to find and inexperienced to overcome but is related to a Dewhurst winner. So, what a race!
Estidhkaar is an Early Mouse Bet in that he is favourite with only one opponent in the market at less than 7.0. Today is the last day of the Early Mouse as it stands. Tomorrow I’m tightening up the rules.
2.40 Doncaster (Portland Handicap) Some 36 three-year-olds have tried and failed in this over the last 12 years. Four-year-olds have a poor strike rate.(2-61) but five-year-olds are 6-60 , those six coming consecutively (2007-12).
The last seven winners were all rated within the parameter 95-101 and the last 12 had all run within 35 days with 10 of them already winners of a handicap with 14 or more runners. Horses drawn 12 or higher have won nine out of 11.
Phew! That’s the stats out of the way. What do they leave us with? Well, Out Do on offer at 11.5, is only two stalls off the ideal and ticks all the other boxes.
Out Do burst through to win the Great St Wilfrid at Ripon. There’s very little between him and Muthmir at the revised weights on their running in July when Muthmir won the York Dash.
Muthmir, 5.8 on BETDAQ this morning, just about holds Goldream on that York form, and now has a pull with Intrinsic who beat him in the Stewards Cup.
Muthmir, who was drawn on the wrong side that day at Goodwood, is entered in the Champions Sprint at the big autumn meeting at Ascot.
Compton Park is improving but this is a step up in grade so he needs to do so again, not an easy task for a seven-year-old. Algar Lad is a similar case but, at four, improvement is more likely.
At the same age, Go Far has just made the transition to this grade but it’s cost him another rise in the weights and he’s rocketed 22lb in around six weeks.
AUSTRALIA CHAMPION AT THIS TRIP
3.35 Leopardstown Aidan O’Brien’s form in this over a decade is 1110411400. He gives himself three chances here, with Wedding Vow, a Galileo from the family of Dylan Thomas, prpbably his best, and Dermot Weld’s likely pacesetter, Chinese White, feared most.
4.05 Leopardstown Ballydoyle have won both runnings of this Group-3 for two-year-olds, notably last year with Australia, who is the star attraction later on tonight..
His stablemate, Tapestry’s brother John F Kennedy, already heads the 2015 Epsom Derby market, and is not expected to be beaten in this. JFK’s main danger in the market, Tombelaine, has already been stopped by Ballydoyle’s Gleneagles. Tapestry runs later on tonight.
5.15 Leopardstown Best result by three-year-olds in this is 1111141211 and Aidan O’Brien’s 10-year record is 1010111201. Add them together and you get Indian Maharaja.
But you also get 40.0 on BETDAQ this morning, on account of his dismal effort in the Great Voltigeur (last), albeit after five months’ absence.
Joseph O’Brien prefers Royal Whip winner Hall of Mirrors, who is officially top rated but his giving weight to Brendan Brackan, Prince Of All and Free Eagle is the equaliser.
Free Eagle, one-time Derby favourite before a setback, ran second to Australia on this course a year ago, but is likely to ease from his odds-on starting position as punters try find something to beat him after his long absence.
The firm ground suggests it could all be done by Mirrors (how often do you get 5.8 about a Ballydoyle Group-3 winner?) but I’ll also put the Indian sign on them by taking a tiny bit of that 40.0 Maharaja.
5.45 Leopardstown (Fastnet Rock Stakes) Favourites have found themselves between a rock and a hard place in this four years running now.
It’s 7-3 to English raiders in the decade and those who wrote off Rizeena were licking their wounds after she won the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot on today’s sort of ground.
The going was good when Tapestry burst the Taghrooda bubble in the Yorkshire Oaks but Rizeena has beaten Tapestry twice and Ryan Moore is over for round three. You call.
6.15 Leopardstown (Boomerang Mile) I’ll call this one. I’m laying Mustajeeb (2.8 in the green this morning), as not suited to the firmish ground and inflated by his Jersey Stakes success.
Only one of the five behind him that day has won since, and that was a lowly Listed, and we could get an odd result because Bow Creek and Top Notch Tonto are likely to scare the crows with their pace.
It could be too much for Gordon Lord Byron who is back at a mile after sprinting. But how can Darwin be 5.1 this morning when he’s run Kingman to around a length giving him weight on today’s sort of ground when Kingman left Mustajeeb trailing seven lengths at levels in the Irish Guineas?
6.50 Leopardstown (Irish Champion Stakes) Aidan O’Brien is 13111201100 in this, his success mainly with three-year-olds who have won six of the last 10.
If Australia is best he’s ever trained, that would put him ahead of the great winners of this, High Chaparral and Dylan Thomas. We’ll see.
DAQMAN’S BETS
TON-UP BET (to win 100): 9.5pts win OUT DO and BULL’S-EYE BET (to win 50): 10pts win MUTHMIR (2.40 Doncaster)
BULL’S-EYE BET: 7.8pts win SNOW SKY (3.50 Doncaster)
BANKER BET: 20pts win (nap) JOHN F KENNEDY (4.05 Leopardstown)
BET (to win 20): 4pts win HALL OF MIRRORS and 0.5pts win and place INDIAN MAHARAJA (5.15 Leopardstown)
DOUBLE WHAMMY: LAY 5pts MUSTAJEEB and BET (to win 20) 5pts win DARWIN (6.15 Leopardstown)
BANKER BET: 20pts win AUSTRALIA (6.50 Leopardstown)
EARLY MOUSE (look out for a rule change tomorrow):
10pts win on each Graceland (2.00 Lingfield), Estidhkaar (2.05 Doncaster), Flashy Diva (2.15 Bath), Random Success (3.25 Bath), Mount Logan (4.25 Doncaster), Elpida (4.50 Lingfield)
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