DAY-1 BREEDERS’ CUP BANKER UP: Daqman landed a first-day banker at Santa Anita last night, Goldencents (WON 8-13) in the Breeders’ Cup (Dirt) Mile, making his score 11 bankers from 13.
19 WINNING NAPS IN OCTOBER: That makes 19 winning naps out of 29 (all finishing in the first four) for a 65% strike-rate. Here’s how Daqman’s tipping features stand as he enters Day 2 of the 2014 Breeders’ Cup, a day which starts in England with Ascot and Wetherby.
NAPS: 19 out of 29
(Form: 11111412313111141121132111231)
BANKERS: 11 out of 13
BULL’S-EYE BETS: 250 points profit
CHALLENGE: Daqman 68, Pricewise 31
A STONE LIGHT AT ASCOT.. LITERALLY
2.20 Ascot Venetia Williams, every punter-poet’s dark lady, had not contributed a verse this season until finding her rhythm in the last week, scoring with two out of three still standing, both well backed.
Connoisseurs of the Kings Caple yard will know that, while punters normally find this Byrne Group Chase winner quite easily (7 out of 10 between 3-1 and 6-1 SP), Venetia has hit with the only surprises, at 16-1 and 20-1, in the last decade.
And here she is again at big offers (12.5 on BETDAQ early mouse), sneaking the aptly-named Stone Light in at the foot of the handicap. Proven first time out (in 2012), he is getting a stone or more from six of the nine runners.
Check out the rest of the form if you like but, in fact, the market tells the story: 5.6 the field, the front four separated by 1.4 points, a clear statement: open race.
3.00 Ascot Graded winners with 11st 12lb (Desert Quest and Raya Star) have won this in the last eight years but most success has have come from down the bottom of the handicap.
Creating that gap today, a stone in front of the field, is Get Me Out Of Here, Coral Cup runner-up at Cheltenham in March, though in fact without a win in two years, since A P McCoy took two small races on him.
He must give up to 23lb and six years in age to progressive sorts, or potentially so, with four-year-olds finishing first, second and third from a handful of starters in the last three seasons.
Three-time winner Laser Blazer could get closer now to Sign of A Victory His distant third at Newbury in March was first run back.
Another hat-trick scorer, Mountain King (6.6 on BETDAQ, as I write), should be ready after Cheltenham a fortnight back and is a CD winner. His yard has been on fire.
Baradari, the Fred Winter fifth, is another Venetia Williams with a chance, a better one than the 19.5 suggested this morning.
COUNT ON ‘CONTI’ FOR THE BANKER
3.15 Wetherby (Charlie Hall Chase) Paul Nicholls, who has started knocking in the winners again now after a faltering start, says that Silvinicao Conti is where he was when he won this two seasons back.
I think that has two meanings: that he’s ready to win this and that his career will now continue with a flat-track campaign, starting with defence of the King George and going on to Aintree. He simply is not a Cheltenham horse, and I think he’ll end the season unbeaten if he swerves Prestbury Park.
The Giant Bolster is marked down for first-time hood but surely he wore one at Cheltenham. Menorah is 9lb off the winner on a good day.
3.35 Ascot (United House Gold Cup) The stats warn against anything carrying more than 11st here, though the favourite Le Bec, scorer first time two seasons running, is reckoned a Cheltenham Gold Cup horse.
In fact, he’s been kept to Cheltenham since a winning start to his chase career out ‘in the sticks’, so his ability on a track like Ascot is in question.
Gevrey Chambertin has not been trustworthy over fences but must have a chance here, still a few pounds below his top hurdles mark. Ardkilly Witness should return to form on a right-handed track (placed 7-9, with three wins RH, but no wins LH), after a nice prep run over hurdles.
Merry King, runner-up in this last year but with no success since a class-4 handicap of an 18lb lower mark, has since been campaigned in marathons and is without the visor that he started the year with.
Pass The Hat has shot up the handicap but should improve at age seven. Roalco De Farges has never been able to put two wins together. Ardkilly Witness has the edge at the weights but Le Bec might have had more to carry had his RSA run – fell fourth last, travelling well – not ended in a fall.
DAQMAN’S UK AFTERNOON BETS (each staked to win 20 points, except the banker)
BET 1.7pts win and place STONE LIGHT (2.20 Ascot)
BET 3.5pts win MOUNTAIN KING, 1pt win and place BARADARI and 2.25pts win (stakes saver) SIGN OF A VICTORY (3.00 Ascot)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) SILVINIACO CONTI (3.15 Wetherby)
BULL’S-EYE BETS (to win 50): 8.8pts win LE BEC and 6pts win ARDKILLY WITNESS (3.35 Ascot)
CALIFORNIA HERE WE COME.. AND FAST
My American contact, Stacy Stark (see yesterday’s archive), reports: ‘The track at Santa Anita was noticeably speed favoring yesterday. They changed it up to benefit the California horses, as usual. I remember we used to complain that, because the Breeders Cup wanted track records, they would make the surface as fast as they could, to the detriment of the horses who have to run on it.’
HERE COMES THE JUDGE AT VALUE 9.6
7.05 Santa Anita, dirt (Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies) Six of the last eight winners have come from gates 1-5. The placed fillies, Conquest Eclipse, Danette and Majestic Presence are all prepared to take on Angela Renee again after her CD success.
So I’m taking the other Todd Fletcher, the 13.0-offered Feathered, who flew home on fast at Saratoga but didn’t like it sloppy behind By The Moon and Wonder Gal at Belmont.
My juvenile-race tilt at the stable outsider of two, Luck of The Kitten (2nd 11-1) saw her come second to the yard’s first string, Hootenanny yesterday, so we’d better save on Angela Renee
7.43 Santa Anita, turf (Breeders’ Cup Filly And Mare) William ‘Cigar’ Mott is arguably the best trainer of turf horses in America, and he’s won nine Breeders’ Cup races.
His filly Emollient beat Parranda, Irish Mission and Rusty Slipper over today’s CD on firm last month but, as in the opener, all the placed horses want to take on the winner again, perhaps thinking Emollient’s first-time blinkers had an effect that might not be repeated, and she was only fourth in this last year.
But that scenario is made to look academic, with Dank, Stephanie’s Kitten and Irish 1,000 Guineas winner Just The Judge in the field.
Emollient was only ninth when Stephanie’s Kitten was the ‘moral’ in the Beverly D Stakes at Arlington, beaten less than a length, giving 6lb to the official winner.
The Judge was only a neck off The Kitten in third after none too clear a run in the closing stages, and I can get an amazing 9.6 on BETDAQ this morning that says she’ll beat Dank (3.3 favourite).
Dank doubled up from the Beverley D to win this last year but the proximity of Emollient then (fourth) suggests a hotter contest this time around.
There’s nothing between The Judge and The Kitten on form, but The Judge has got the draw, in gate 2, where Stephanie’s Kitten is out wide in 10, and Just the Judge went into the Beverly D on back of the E P Taylor at Woodbine two weeks ago. If she’s still hot, she’s a big price.
8.21 Santa Anita, dirt (Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint) It’s another beauty for Wesley Ward. The Washington-based former US champion jockey had Just The Beauty run a half-length second in this a year ago.
But she returned to Santa Anita to win her opening race of 2014 in March, then landed her first Grade 1 at Keeneland on Polytrack. Never out of the frame in 15 starts, she won again after a summer break and seems an improved mare this time around.
Sweet Reason and Artemis Agrotera were only fourth and fifth in the fillies’ juvenile here last year, and Leigh Court has to step up from Grade 2.
9.05 Santa Anita, turf (Breeders’ Cup Sprint) Wesley Ward again. There’ll be another hootenanny if Frankie Dettori and No Nay Never, last year’s Royal Ascot and Prix Morny winner can take this, after a back-to-form win at Keeneland in October.
This time, Ward’s supposed second string, Undrafted, was one of the two pressing the market leader this morning. But I just doubt our July Cup fourth has done enough, getting 8lb from Marchman when he beat that one at Belmont Park in June.
Dimension and Something Extra are right on top of that form on their narrow defeat of Undrafted at Kentucky Downs in September.
Dimension was only fourth in this race last year behind the placed horses, Reneesgotzip and Tightend Touchdown.
In the belief that No Nay Never’s best form has been on easier surfaces, I shall side with Reneesgotzip, particularly after her fast-time comfortable prep win at Del Mar.
9.43 Santa Anita, dirt (Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, colts and geldings) Todd Fletcher, the man from Long Island, who started his racing life as a stable boy for Wayne Lucas, seems to have two aces here for a pontoon split.
Carpe Diem seized hold of the Breeders’ Futurity field at Keeneland earlier this month by six lengths from Lucas’s own Mr Z. Half an hour earlier at Belmont Park, stablemate Daredevil made it back-to-back wins in scintillating style in the Grade-1 Champagne Stakes. Carpe Diem’s win was on fast ground, Daredevil’s on sloppy, so that decides the bet.
10.22 Santa Anita (Breeders Cup Turf) For me it’s a match between two of the world’s greatest (ever?) trainers, Sir Michael Stoute with Telescope and Andre Fabre with Flintshire. But everyone else thinks so, too, so I can’t bet at the prices.
11.01 Santa Anita, dirt (Breeders’ Cup Sprint) A single-figure draw simply does not win this, and the rich tapestry of winners rarely includes a six-year-old. That takes this morning’s joint favourite out of the book!
Bob Baffert farms the race (he’s won it three times since 2007) and took it last year with Secret Circle, who looks perfectly primed to win back to back.
11.40 Santa Anita, turf (Breeders’ Cup Mile) Winners usually follow on, but there will be a new champion this year, with no Wise Dan after his back-to-back wins in a race dominated by Freddie Head’s Goldikova three years running (2008-10).
British-based betting is bound to hike Toronado and Mustajeeb, and I’m swayed to the fast American horse with recent firm-ground success. I could get 12.0 Seek Again, who – at Saratoga in August – gave weight and a beating to Grand Arch, runner-up to Wise Dan in his final race.
12.35 Santa Anita, dirt (Breeders’ Cup Classic) Horses aged four and five have the best record. The last three-year-old to win (Raven’s Pass) was English-trained by John Gosden, with Jamie Osborne and Toast Of New York trying to emulate that from gate 9.
The last 10 winners had all finished first or second in a Grade 1. The draw is significant. Gates 2, 4 and 5 have won five out of seven, stall 4 three times.
Toast of New York’s Del Mar Classic conqueror, Shared Belief, will break from gate 6. He’s your Californian dream finale. Champion two-year-old who is six from six and banker of the meeting. Can you keep your belief through this long night’s racing?
DAQMAN’S US BETS (staked to win 20 points unless otherwise stated)
BET 1.7pts win FEATHERED (7.05 Santa Anita)
BET 2.3pts win JUST THE JUDGE (7.43 Santa Anita)
BET 5pts win JUDY THE BEAUTY (8.21 Santa Anita)
BET 3.5pts win RENEESGOTZIP (9.05 Santa Anita)
BET 6.3pts win CARPE DIEM (9.43 Santa Anita)
BET 4pts win SECRET CIRCLE (11.01 Santa Anita)
BET 1.8pts win SEEK AGAIN (11.40 Santa Anita)
BET 8.6pts win (US nap) SHARED BELIEF (12.35 Santa Anita)
NEW !!!
You can now follow BETDAQ updates on Google+
For further details – CLICK HERE
£30 FREE BET
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
