WIN WHEN YOU LOSE ON BETDAQ: Daqman’s Bull’s-Eye Bets, aimed at 50 points profit, hit the wire yesterday, when Epsom Hill (2nd 13-2 from 10.0) and Gwafa (2nd 8-1 from 11.0) were beaten little more than two lengths all told. But they again pointed up tremendous value on BETDAQ.
ARC FAVOURITE IS A BANKER: Today Daqman goes from 19.5 offers at York on a journey around Europe, where he banks on Arc favourite Sea The Moon at Baden-Baden. His Bull’s-Eye Bet is a 10-pointer, and he continues his series of selections from the BETDAQ morning line (Early Mouse).
CHIVERS HAS THEM ALL ON TOAST..
2.00 York Quality usually wins this, with no past winners carrying less than 9st. The draw plays its part, success coming from the low six stalls 75% of the time.
Arabian Bride is weighted to reverse the Newcastle placings with Supreme Occasion and Moonlight Navigator is dropped in grade, also from a Newcastle effort.
But I’m having a punt on a local horse, Upward Trend, to buck the stats. He looks thrown in on his eyecatching run at Thirsk, when he carried 18lb more than today. The 19.5 on BETDAQ this morning is Sunday best.
2.30 York Paul Hanagan, looking for a hat-trick in this race, rides last year’s winner, Cosmic Halo, who is now down to within 1lb of his 2013 winning mark, having only his second run at this level over this trip since that day. The 8.4 on BETDAQ this morning was a solid first position on the race.
3.00 York (Garrowby Stakes) Hallelujah and Ladies Forever were last year’s one-two, separated by a nose. I fancy Hallelujah to bounce back here, offered at 9.2 this morning.
Mass Rally, who loves this track and Intibaah, who beat him at Haydock in the Spring, may not be at home on the drying ground.
Naadirr has been running well in the Pattern but has won only his maiden and that was on a man-made surface. Lay.
4.05 York Tim Easterby places his horses like pieces on a chessboard. You just have to wait for him to make his move. And home handicaps at York are his favourite gambits.
After the 19.5 Upward Trend earlier in the day, the stable has Chivers (aptly named son of Duke Of Marmalade) getting 18lb from everything, albeit raised a couple of steps in class.
There wasn’t a penny for anything else this morning, with Gambol and Itlaaq, his nearest market pursuers, 25lb higher up the handicap.
4.40 York Here’s Easterby again, challenging the field – and the punter – by running three. Despite top weight, Ventura Mist may be the best of them, running well in handicaps whenever she’s dropped form the Pattern.
But form lines – including through Eastern Impact – suggest that Ventura Mist won’t stop Fast Track winning back to back, as he did last season, with a similar recovery time between races.
‘MOON’ ODDS WILL WANE FOR THE ARC
2.30 Veliefendi (Bosphorus Cup) The 180,000-euros-to-the-winner first of two internationals in Turkey has attracted Richard Hannon to both.
Here he is with Pether’s Moon, while Saeed Bin Suroor saddles Excellent Result, winner a year ago of the Ascot handicap which yesterday went to Battersea.
Pether’s Moon, who was third in the Hardwicke Stakes, and won a Group 3 at Goodwood, takes on Nymphea, winner at Hoppegarten of the Grosser Preis Von Berlin last year and Village Wind, Group 1 winner on today’s course on heavy last month. The ground is more on top today. Tricky one.
3.30 Veliefendi (Topkapi Trophy) With 270,000 euros to the winner, five of the seven runners are English raiders.
Likely favourite is Hannon’s Toormore, who beat French Derby winner The Grey Gatsby in the Craven Stakes and, falling short in the 2,000 Guineas and at Royal Ascot, returned to form with a narrow defeat in a Group 2 at Goodwood (Glory Awaits behind).
Ayaar (Luca Cumani) and Belgian Bill (George Baker) are handicappers but Our Channel, though unplaced in the Epsom Derby, was second in the American version at Arlington (1m 2f).
2.40 Longchamp (Prix La Rochette) Won last year by the 2014 French 2,000 Guineas winner, Karakontie, so worth a look.
Most likely favourite is Nucifera but his hat-trick was completed in a Listed at Deauville over Tupi (third), who was last of five to Elm Park at Salisbury recently.
The 10-lengths Deauville maiden winner, Romeo Lima, and two others, Full Mast and Max La Fripouille, are all three unexposed, one run, one win each.
3.10 Longchamp (Prix Du Pin) The last two winners of this, Blue Soave and Desert Blanc, meet head to head but this Group 3 looks an ideal opportunity for Noozhoh Canarias on his first start for a new yard.
Christophe Soumillon’s mount drops in grade after finishing unplaced in the Newmarket 2,000 Guineas and the July Cup (only about four lengths off the winner).
3.50 Baden-Baden (Grosser Preis Von Baden) Horses aged three and four (the score is 11-10) have won 21 of the 27 renewals since Carroll House completed the double in the Arc for England in 1989.
There’s an automatic invitation to the Breeders’ Cup Turf for the winner of this ‘German King George’ which, in the last two years, has gone to 2012 Arc winner Danedream and 2013 Arc favourite, Novellist, who was injured before he could face the ultimate test at Longchamp.
Six times winning trainer of this, Peter Schiergen, who was responsible for Danedream, saddles Lucky Speed and Giant’s Cauldron.
Lucky Speed was third to Sirius and Berlin Berlin in the Grosser Preis Von Berlin at Hoppegarten last month but the trio is unlikely to stop Sea The Moon who was a stunning 11-lengths winner of the Germany Derby in Hamburg from Lucky Lion.
‘This is the best prep for the Arc,’ says Sea The Moon’s trainer, Markus Klug, with some justification after the exploits of Danedream and Novellist. Sea The Moon already heads Treve and Taghrooda in the Longchamp betting.
But at the same time Klug worries that Sea The Moon won’t be fully fit today. We’ve heard that before this season, pre-race to victories by Australia and Fintry
Sea The Moon may be even shorter after today’s race, with Taghrooda having been beaten in the Yorkshire Oaks and Treve failing to win this season in Ganay and Royal Ascot outings, sustaining a back injury at Ascot and likely to need her Arc prep race in next Sunday’s Prix Vermeille.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET (to win 20): 1pt win and place UPWARD TREND (2.00 York)
BET (to win 20): 2.7pts win COSMIC HALO (2.30 York)
LAY 5pts NAADIRR and BET (to win 20): 2.4pts win HALLELUJAH (3.00 York)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) SEA THE MOON (3.50 Baden-Baden)
BULL’S-EYE BET (to win 50): 10pts win CHIVERS (4.05 York)
BET (to win 20): 4.5pts win FAST TRACK (4.40 York)
EARLY-MOUSE BETS (10pts win on each): Supreme Occasion (2.00 York), Vosne Romanee (2.10 Fontwell), Accessallareas (3.45 Fontwell), Crannaghmore Boy (5.20 Fontwell)
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