10 LAYS UP IN THE LAST 11: Daqman got the yips yesterday, getting near the flag, but failing to sink his putts, (see story below), though he was spot on again with his lay, for the 10th time in 11 races, opposing Curvy (3rd 15-8 favourite) in the Irish Oaks. His current scoreboard:
NAPS: 11 out of 16
LAYS: 10 out of 11
VALUE: Daqman 60, Pricewise 10
(Overall challenge: 201-83)
CURRAGH GROUP-RACE CLASH: Daqman and Pricewise clash again today in the 3.10 and 3.45 Group races at The Curragh. Daqman’s nap is at Newton Abbot, 5.4 on BETDAQ this morning when he made the selection.
LOOK OUT FOR DAQMAN’S BETTING RULES..
We only have ourselves (and the wife) to blame. Lack of concentration; a change of heart; and we let the losers in the door. Mea culpa.
I did two idiot things yesterday. I made out a good case for the Irish Oaks winner, Covert Love (it’s in my story; see Daqman Archive), then – having to do a rewrite because of a non-runner – I ‘went off it’, kept my lay, but dropped the winner.
Earlier in the day, I had tipped Dr Richard Newland to win a big race at Market Rasen (what a revelation that course; unless you’ve watched it grow over a lifetime, like me).
Thank god for the rise and fall of that far side which no bulldozers can flatten and condemn it to do a Newcastle.
Dr Newland had two in the race and the golden rule is that you must always have a saver on the supposed second-string. I didn’t. It won at 16-1.
Fortunately, if you have your Daq up all day, right up to the wire for each race in fact, you can keep playing in a fluctuating market, so increasing your chance of winning, reducing the losses. Except that the marriage vows meant I was out for the day.
This week, halfway house for the season, I will be revising my bets in the two ways that I know will win money: checking out past records (mine and those of the races themselves), investing accordingly, and aiming to stake on a sliding scale for the class of race being analysed. Watch this space.
MICK FITZ ON THE MARK WITH OLD ONE-TWO
Where are they now? A few months ago, if you’d told me I’d be studying racecards containing no Tony McCoy, no Richard Hughes, no Ryan Moore (temporarily, we hope), I’d have laid any odds.
We have Hughsie for a couple more weeks, then an accolade will become vacant for that type of ultra-consistent, reliable quiet man of the saddle, going back to Mick Kinane, Steve Cauthen, Joe Mercer and beyond to Doug Smith.
He is no cheeky chappy like Frankie Dettori (in the mould of ‘Bobber’ Ron Hutchinson and ‘Cheeky’ Charlie Smirke), but he – and Joseph O’Brien – were the latest of the ‘long fellas’ of the likes of Lester Piggott.
In the good old bad old days, the Press painted character and courted controversy and competition among the ranks of leading riders, as they now do for golfers and footballers, but today are bland and watered down on the racing scene, and haven’t got a tipster among the lot of them.
It’s down to television to sell the sport. And, for a moment on Saturday, Channel-4 woke up and put its toe on the line. At least Mick Fitzgerald did.
He actually dared tip a horse with conviction – two in fact for the same race – where we usually have mothers’-meeting lists of ‘charity bets’, excuse-me dancing on to the betting floor from blinking gentleman Jim and not-so-cunning Cunningham declaring for a hopeful in the manner of Johnny Francome (‘I know it’s 33-1 but it’s got a real chance’).
Mick’s pair finished first and second and the shy smile which followed, added to the boldness of the bets to create a tad of redeeming personality, which Channel-4 badly needs and which racing is all about. We trust Channel-4 will listen and learn, watching their own.
BRAVE ANOTHER WINNING PALMER WARRIOR
2.05 The Curragh I reminded you yesterday that Australia, New Approach and Teofilo had won the EBF maiden two-year-old race on Irish Oaks day.
And we were rewarded with a smart display from Shogun, albeit in first-time blinkers. It is to be hoped that he learns to concentrate and the ‘rogue’s badge’ can be removed.
In today’s opener for fillies, we are asking something to come along in the hoofprints of Misty For Me (2010) and Tapestry (2013), both subsequent winners of a Guineas or an Oaks, both trained by Aidan O’Brien.
Ballydoyle has swerved this year’s heat but there are daughters of New Approach, Acclamation, Fastnet Rock and the stallion star of the juvenile events this season, Zoffany, who is responsible for Camellia Japonica and Gilded Reflection.
3.10 The Curragh (Group 3) Three-year-olds have won three of the last five, and Hugo Palmer bids to follow up his Oaks masterstroke of yesterday.
Covert Love was one of a stable hat-trick (five winners from the last seven runners), and Home Of The Brave (5.4 on BETDAQ as I write) could find 7f the right slot after running sixth in the top mile races of Newmarket 2,000 Guineas and the Commonwealth Cup, in each case weakening in the final furlong.
The drying ground may be against Gordon Lord Byron. His only win on a sound surface in the last couple of seasons came when he beat another seven-year-old, yet he’s favourite this morning.
TALMADA KEY TO SECOND DOUBLE WHAMMY
3.45 The Curragh (Group 2) I was going to say that this is a race for fillies which haven’t quite made it to Group 1. True, but that training maestro Sir Michael Stoute made use of it as a stepping-stone before Dank landed back-to-back Grade 1s at Arlington and in the Breeders’ Cup.
There’s no Stoutie this year and, if there’s a Dank, it might be Talmada, trained Roger Varian, who is on a hat-trick and has had 23 out of his last 25 starters finish in the first four.
Talmada has been unlucky to come up against last year’s Oaks runner-up, Secret Gesture, and this year’s Irish Oaks winner, Covert Love, in her only starts at today’s kind of trip in the last year.
Jessica Harrington showed with Jack Naylor yesterday that her horses are back on the boil (four wins out of the last six) and Bocca Baciata – kiss on the mouth – looks the pick of the Classic generation.
The three-year-olds swamped Brooch and Mutadis Mutandis in the Pretty Polly here and the nearest older horses that day, Ribbons and Secret gesture, again give lines to Talmada.
I shall make it a double Double Whammy at The Curragn today by laying Brooch and backing Talmada and Bocca Baciata. If they are the one-two, I shall claim a Triple Whammy.
NAP: The handicapper has dropped Rum And Butter (McManus-Geraghty) 5lb into the top of a class-3 handicap. He’s won on the Newton Abbot (2.50) course three times already.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked as stated)
BET (to win 20 points) 4.5pts win (nap) RUM AND BUTTER (2.50 Newton Abbot
DOUBLE WHAMMY: LAY 5pts GORDON LORD BYRON and BULL’S-EYE BET (to win 50 points): 6.8pts (to win 30) HOME OF THE BRAVE (3.10 The Curragh)
DOUBLE WHAMMY: LAY 5pts BROOCH, and BET (to win 30 points each): 6.5pts win TALMADA and 4pts win BOCCA BACIATA (3.45 The Curragh)
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