FORM BANKER AT KELSO: Kelso survives and Daqman spots a banker on collateral form. Fairyhouse features a sub-standard Dan Moore Memorial, for which Daqman gives himself two chances in an open BETDAQ market.
SEE HOW THEY WON: Look out for See How They Won, Daqman’s ante-post stats and analysis on where the Cheltenham Festival winners come from. More details tomorrow.
FLYING FEHILY ROCK SOLID
2.30 Fairyhouse (Dan Moore Memorial) You could say that class and quality is required in this Grade A, with winners from the top half of the handicap, none successful to date below a 134 rating.
But when I backed Mallowney to win it in 2015 (he sure did; at 8-1), he carried 11st 4lb off a mark of 148. You need only a 142 to get that today; 148 is top weight.
And that top weight is none other than Days Hotel, now 12, who was only third in Mallowney’s year with a better rating than today. Nuff said.
With the tail-swisher Peoples Park and the bridesmaid Pairofbrowneyes among five horses clear in the betting, the race doesn’t look too difficult to win.
Neil Mulholland sent Baltimore Rock over for the Punchestown Ryanair at the end of last season (fourth to Douvan).
The eight-year-old had been saddled at both the Aintree and the Cheltenham festivals by David Pipe, and this could be his day to prove he is no morning glory after a run back before Christmas.
Jarry D’Honneur (Willie Mullions) and Ball D’Arc (Gordon Elliott) represent the big two home stables, with Elliott clear at the top of the trainers’ table on both winners and prizemoney.
Jarry won a beginners’ chase at Punchestown two years ago but has scored only once since and was behind Ball D’Arc at today’s weights difference at the Leopardstown Christmas meeting.
Ball D’Arc was unlucky that day, hampered and squeezed for room, but went down just three lengths. So impressive on Outlander and Death Duty for Elliott, 17-year-old Kerry-born Jack Kennedy takes over.
But Death Duty is Kennedy’s only success this year, whereas Cork man Noel Fehily on Baltimore Rock has scored 11 times in 12 days’ riding. I hope he’s fully recovered from a bloody fall – and I mean blood – in the Warwick Classic.
With the BETDAQ orange so little overround, I could take 4.8 Ball D’Arc and 7.4 Baltimore Rock and expect a return from this fascinating jockey clash of Irish iron men.
PERFECT START AT KELSO
Now for the iron ladies! Don’t think you have to ride the races to earn that epithet; Sue Smith and Lucinda Russell carry their stables through bitter days in the frozen North. Success has to be long-term planning and the daily grind, which starts every day in darkness.
For those of you who haven’t noticed amid the usual hullabaloo about the Mullins and Nicholls of this world, long-term planning has just paid off in spades for Sue with Straidnahanna and Lucinda with One For Arthur in the stamina tests, North Yorkshire Grand National and Warwick Classic.
12.40 Kelso Sue has quietly won five races out of her last six still standing, among only eight runners fielded in 2017 thus far. No other yard can claim that.
Quietly is an Oscar six-year-old out of Gimme Peace, who is still learning but couldn’t have a better partner today than renaissance-man Danny Cook, another one riding high, with four winners (and a second) from his last five mounts, five out of seven still standing from five days in the saddle.
It’s a tough little race. Ryedale Racer won 36 lengths last time he was in novice company. Perfect Pirate made all in a 15-runner field at uphill Towcester and Progress Drive stayed on well to score at Ayr for Nicky Richards (three winners in the last week or so).
Just 0.75 points splits the front three in the BETDAQ orange but I’m going to hazard that two of them are making a price for Perfect Pirate, one of two top chances today for Ben Pauling and David Bass.
1.10 Kelso Team Pauling-Bass has Red Indian switching from Ffos Las, where he beat a Nicky Henderson hot-pot in December (but since then the Henderson horse has been beaten favourite again).
Derek Fox, who won that Warwick Classic for Lucinda Russell yesterday, is back with the stable for one ride, on Katalystic, reckoned better than the bare form.
Dear Sire – three consecutive seconds – is too much of a bridesmaid for me, though it’s early days., and I like Helmsley Lad (the locals call it ‘Emsley).
Helmsley Lad made all at Sedgefield on Boxing Day, slamming an odds-on favourite with the pair 32 lengths clear.
1.40 Kelso There’s some interesting collateral form here. Milly Baloo and Two Smokin Barrels have both been involved in races against a mare called Money Maid, both at a difference of a stone.
Money Maid, strictly 13lb inferior to Two Smokin Barrels (Wetherby) was, pound for a length, an 8lb better animal than Milly Baloo when they were one-two at Market Rasen on Boxing Day.
That makes Two Smokin Barrels a banker today, in a race in which Milly Balooo is his only opposition in the market.
2.10 Kelso Blair Campbell struck up a partnership with Marcus Antonius, which was successful at Perth in the summer by 21 lengths and Kelso in December by 10 lengths.
That’s cost him nearly a stone rise in the weights but the 13lb is offset by Campbell’s 7lb claim. The horse has to climb two grades here but seems to be better with age and his featherweight will help him get through the ground.
FROM YOU TO ME, SUE..
2.40 Kelso (Royal Caledonian Hunt Chase) Another class 2, in which Lucinda Russell (Final Assault) and Sue Smith (De Vous A Moi) are clashing.
This seems a trip too far for Spanish Fleet, who in any case has won only at Carlisle; but maybe not far enough for Fine Rightly, whose Irish successes in 2016 came over 3m and 3m 2f.
De Vous A Moi drops back to his ideal distance and should be ready now after runs back in November and then December: 6.0 on BETDAQ is good value.
3.40 Kelso I wrote recently about how effective Colin Tizzard (Grand Vision) is when his horses travel North but Warren Greatrex, too (Black Thunder) is spending the petrol money.
Since it’s a hunters’ chase, I pass but I thought I’d mention it before my fans have a meeting in the old red phone-box, muttering about how I don’t practise what I preach.
Incidentally, the Racing Post ratings have Black Thunder, Dolatulo and Grand Vision – in that order – absolutely miles clear.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BACK 6pts win PERFECT PIRATE (12.40 Kelso)
BACK 4pts win HELMSLEY LAD (1.10 Kelso)
BANKER: BET 10pts win (nap) TWO SMOKIN BARRELS (1.40 Kelso)
BACK 4pts win MARCUS ANTONIUS (2.10 Kelso)
BACK 6pts win BALL d’ARC and 4pts win BALTIMORE ROCK (2.30 Fairyhouse)
BACK 4pts win DE VOUS A MOI (2.40 Kelso)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 5 x 2pt win doubles and 2 x 1pt win trebles Perfect Pirate (12.40 Kelso) and Two Smokin Barrels (1.40 Kelso) with both Ball d’Arc and Baltimore Rock (2.30 Fairyhouse)
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