CLASH OF OPINION IN FRANCE: Daqman tackles the big races in France and Ireland today after a dismal Saturday, not redeemed by the equal lack of good fortune by his adversary, Pricewise. The score remains 54-20 to Daqman on the Flat before this afternoon’s Prix Maurice de Gheest.
CONCENSUS OF OPINION IN ENGLAND: But, if the rain comes in the forecast quantity, the general view – and Daqman’s nap – says that Sir Michael Stoute’s Gothic will be in his element at Leicester
2.08 Deauville (Prix Maurice de Gheest) When is an edge not an edge? The problem with following the draw for this race is that Moonlight Cloud and Marchand d’Or have so dominated in six of the last eight years that the total command by the high stalls may be an illusion.
Winners in those last eight seasons have come from gates 7, 9, 11, 12 (three times) and 14 (twice). The second edge is today’s ground. It is, by their own admission, a French mudbath: today’s ‘heavy’ is not a word they use lightly; ‘very soft’ is when their pogo stick going-tester disappears below sea-level.
Of the English raiders, Garswood was third to Moonlight Cloud in the Foret at Longchamp (soft) last October but, despite first-time blinkers, he was safely held by Gregorian on the soft at the recent July Meeting, though Gregorian struggled once when raced on heavy. Both hold Caspar Netscher.
Joyeuse has won a Listed on the soft, and Ireland’s Viztoria and Fiesolana (trainer in poor form) are no strangers to deep ground but Roger Varian’s Aljamaaheer has acted well enough on soft, though without success.
Third edge: it is rare for any horse over the age of five to win – there has been one in 22 years – and hard for anyone to topple Freddy Head’s yard (Thawaany). He trained both Moonlight Cloud and Marchand d’Or.
Thawaany could have two advantages on the others: she is drawn high (15) and is only one of two in the race to have won on this Deauville turf.
Joyeuse looks well drawn (11) but has won nothing higher than a Listed. She was behind Vorda in the 1,000 Guineas and Vorda in turn – despite excuses – has a lot to do to redeem the form with Sommerabend, since he is in 12 and she has the ‘coffin box’ stall 1. Viztoria is not far off her in 3.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Those who have enjoyed extreme conditions in the past are Garswood (stall 13), Thawaany (15) and Viztoria (in 3), who has aimed at this all season, though there is just that doubt about the low draw. I went for the likely improvers: 6.8 Viztoria and 7.4 Thawaany.
4.05 The Curragh (Phoenix Stakes) Some top-class Ballydoyle colts have won this – George Washington, Holy Roman Emperor, Mastecraftsman – and Aidan O’Brien goes to war with a quartet of colts including two by War Front.
But fillies are 131 since 2007, providing two shocks at huge offers (25-1 and 33-1 SP) and they are represented today by morning favourite Anthem Alexander.
She clocked a fast time in the Queen Mary but the race gives mixed signals. The runner-up, Tiggy Wiggy, went on to beat the colts in the Super Sprint but the third home, Newsletter, was last of five to Dick Whittington in the Anglesey and the sixth, Arabian Queen, let me down yesterday.
Yet again, the going is changing (the forecast varies between ‘showers’ and ‘a deluge’ on already yielding ground at The Curragh this morning) and Anthem Alexander, Dick Whittington, The Great War and War Envoy all have winning form only on a sound surface.
Kool Kompany has beaten War Envoy on firm and yielding, including over CD in the Railway Stakes and is top-rated by a clear 6lb. He might topple Anthem Alexander if his long season hasn’t taken its toll.
THE NAP: Gothic (3.00 Leicester) is expected to enjoy the ground resulting from any downpour. His best form is all on soft.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points)
BET 3.4pts win VIZTORIA and 3.2pts win THAWAANY (2.08 Deauville)
BET 7pts win (nap) GOTHIC (3.00 Leicester)
BET 8.5pts win KOOL KOMPANY (4.05 The Curragh)
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