CLASSIC 7-2 LEGER NAP FOR DAQMAN: Daqman hit Classic form on Town Moor yesterday, landing his second Group-race nap at the Doncaster meeting with Landing Light in the St Leger, following The Lark in the fillies’ equivalent, the Park Hill Stakes on Thursday. In fact, it was his third successful nap in the pattern in a week:
Sunday HALLELUJAH (nap) WON 7-1
Thursday THE LARK (nap) WON 15-8
Saturday LANDING LIGHT (nap) WON 7-2
CHAMPAGNE DAY WITH 63 POINTS PROFIT: Daqman launched his Saturday with Outstrip (WON 13-8) in the Champagne Stakes and followed up with Viztoria (WON 7-2) in the Park Stakes before landing the St Leger when lighting on Landing Light (WON 7-2 from 6.2 on BETDAQ). Profit on the day 63.15.
IT’S THE SUNDAY THAT SET UP 22 ARC WINNERS: 19 winners of today’s three Arc trials, and three that were placed, have produced 22 Arc winners in recent history (see below). Today, three of the top four in the betting for Longchamp on October 5 run in those trials: Flintshire, Orfevre and Treve.
A triple-header of trials today could tell us more about the Arc. But I’m hoping they don’t! Can you blame me, with this column’s 24.0 BETDAQ bet on Novellist in our ante-post wallet.
Nor would you blame me if we laid off today now that Novellist is around 5.5 favourite but it cost us only 1.7 points to target a 40-point return.
And with BETDAQ on-the-day big-race offers so punter-friendly, I shall stick on Novellist and look for a second ace to split my stake when the draw and the going is known on the eve of the October 5 race. Pontoons only, or should I say vingt-et-un!
Meanwhile, winners of today’s trials have produced the following recent Arc winners (three placed horses, one in the Vermeille, two in the Niel, also won the Arc): Total 22:
PRIX NIEL (11 winners won the Arc): 1983 Sagace (but won the Arc a year later), 1987 Trempolino, 1991 Subotica (also a year later), 1994 Carnegie, 1996 Helissio, 1998 Sagamix, 1999 Montjeu, 2000 Sinndar, 2003 Dalakhani, 2005 Hurricane Run, 2006 Rail Link. Two placed horses also won the Arc.
PRIX VERMEILLE (6 wins) 1972 San San, 1973 Allez France, 1975 Ivanjica (won it the following year), 1979 Three Troikas, 1982 All Along (the following year), 2008 Zarkava. One placed horse also won the Arc.
PRIX FOY (2 wins) 1980 Detroit (won the following year), 1984-5, back to back, Sagace (won the Arc 1984). Arc winners Carnegie and Montjeu won the Prix Foy a year later. Here’s how I see the Longchamp card this afternoon:
12.30 Longchamp (Prix Du Petit Couvert) English raiders have won 10 times this century, and Robert Cowell – who, appropriately, trains Victory Laurel – is going for a hat-trick, following Prohibit and Monsieur Joe, albeit Victory Laurel has so far done all his racing in Rome.
Stats-wise, Michael Bell is up against it with Riskit For A Biskit, since three-year-olds have won only twice in 20 years, both home trained. Riskit took the biscuit when winning a soft-ground Deauville sprint in a fast time, though Mirza, close up fifth, is now better off at the weights, with William Buick taking over.
But you could argue that the Deauville race points to Dibajj, since the fourth horse behind Riskit, A Huge Dream, was a long way in rear of Dibajj on the same course three weeks or so later.
It also points up Catcall, who had Mirza nearly seven lengths back when narrowly beaten in the Group-2 Prix Du Gros-Chene at Chantilly in June.
1.30 Longchamp (Prix Niel) As we’ve seen, the Niel has set up four Arc winners this century, two of them from Ireland, though neither from the Ballydoyle yard.
Andre Fabre has sent out 10 Niel winners, and has a strong quartet today, including Flintshire, Novellist’s current market rival with the bookies for Arc favouritism.
The horse Flintshire beat into third in a Group 3 in June, Tres Blue, has since won twice, including the Grand Prix de Deauville, and Flintshire, himself, has won the Grand Prix De Paris.
The hard-luck story of that Grand Prix was stablemate Ocovango, not getting a decent run, but two-and-a-half-lengths third.
Ocovango had an impossible task in the Epsom Derby, drawn in the ‘coffin box’ stall 1, and again hampered in his run, fifth beaten little more than two lengths by Ruler Of The World.
The Derby form has taken knock after knock since then, notably Ruler’s demise in the Irish Derby, though the Epsom third, Galileo Rock, ran well yet again in yesterday’s St leger.
2.08 Longchamp (Prix Gladiateur) English raiders had a 50% strike rate (7-14) up to 2003, but haven’t won since then. John Gosden tries to put that right with Aiken, and make up for the stable’s Leger disappointment, though the trainer feared the worst for Excess Knowledge on the soft ground.
Aiken has been waiting for soft, and should go close here, if he’s the same horse that reeled off six straight wins in 2011-12, including the Grand Prix De Chantilly.
Aiken was narrowly beaten in both the Irish St leger and the Long Distance Cup at Ascot last autumn but both were run in slow time. As a punter you have to decide whether that was against him or whether he deserves two black marks. Either way, he needs to bounce back after a long absence..
Alain de Royer-Dupre (4 wins) and Andre Fabre (3) are the leading French trainers in the race, and best of a Fabre trio may be Dance Moves – it looks that way on jockey bookings – only just stepped up to this kind of trip, half-a-length third in the best guide to this, the Prix Kergorlay.
Alain de Royer-Dupre won that with Verema but relies on he Aga Khan’s Almalyk today. Verema had earlier beaten Goldtara and Les Beaufs (runner-up to Domeside in the Spring), so the trainer knows all about the form of the leading contenders today.
Almalyk doesn’t look the part on form but is lightly raced and steps up in trip, and only a week ago the stable won the long-distance event over this same CD at Group 3 level with Valirann.
2.40 Longchamp (Prix Vermeille) It used to be the case that the Vermeille threw up winning Arc fillies but that’s happened only once in more than 30 years, with the scintillating Zarkava (2008).
One of those winners in the good old bad old days was Three Troikas (1979), trained by Criquette Head, now Head-Maarek and at last with another crack filly in her Chantilly stables, Treve.
Treve had a massive four lengths to spare over Irish oaks winner, Chicquita, over just short of 11 frlongs at Chantilly on good ground. Today’s 12f on soft decides whether she is Arc-winning material. Her laid-back, hold-up style, with a devastating late burst, suggests that she is.
Three-year-olds have won five of the seven runnings and Ballydoyle saddles Venus De Milo. It was no disgrace for her to be beaten four lengths in the Yorkshire Oaks by The Fugue, who’s made a big leap forward this summer, since she started her career only in mid-June.
Treve will also be thoroughly tested by Lady Cecil’s four-year-old Wild Coco, game five-time winner at this trip and further, and suited by cut in the ground.
That man Fabre lays a hand of card son the table – four out of his fabulous Chantilly deck – with a three-year-old improver (Tasaday won Group 3 then Group 2) but with Maxime Guyon switching to the older filly, Romantica, winner of the Grouo-1 Prix Jean Romanet at the Deauville Festival.
3.10 Longchamp (Prix Foy) It’s 7-6 to four-year-olds in their battle with five-year-olds for this prize, with only one successful older than that since 1979, a black mark against Dunaden.
Sagace is the only Arc winner from this in the same year in that time but here’s Orfevre today, as one of the three big names, alongside Flintshire and Treve, vying with Novellist for the Arc-market lead. Orfevre bids for back-to-back wins in this, having used the race as his stepping-stone to the 2012 Arc, when he finished neck runner-up to Solemia.
Andre Fabre (8 winners) and Alain de Royer-Dupre (2) are again leading trainers in this race but with their runners, Mandour and Pirika, targeting the British Champions meeting at Ascot, not the Arc.
3.45 Longchamp (Prix Du Moulin) Aidan O’Brien, who won it in 2002 with Rock Of Gibraltar, tilts at the windmill race today with Gale Force Ten.
Since the Moulin is a mile, you’d expect to see Richard Hannon on the roll of honour, but not a sausage so far. Maybe Olympic Glory can put things right.
3.50 The Curragh (Irish St Leger) I’d love a two-day Leger double, rolling up Landing Light on to the winner of this. So would Aidan O’Brien!
Ballydoyle has missed out on this one for five long years, since back-to-back wins with Yeats (2007) and Septimus (2008).
Ernest hemingway’s chance today hinges on the weather. The Curragh had a dry night but rain is forecast, leaving me in the dark as to the actual going.
4.25 The Curragh (National Stakes) Last but not least, a mouth-watering clash of Sudirman, Giovanni Boldini and Toormore. Rain makes it difficult but there’s Betdaq sunshine in the 104% list of offers, as I write. That’s one result I can predict: BETDAQ value wins; the rest nowhere.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 4pts win DIBAJJ and 2pts win (stakes saver) CATCALL (12.30 Longchamp)
BET 11pts win FLINTSHIRE and 1.6pts win and place OCOVANGO (1.30 Longchamp)
BET 5pts win DANCE MOVES, AND 1pt and place ALMALYK (2.08 Longchamp)
BET 14pts win TREVE (2.40 Longchamp)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (NAP) ORFEVRE (3.10 Longchamp)
BET 8pts win TUSCAN FUN (4.50 Bath)
BET 5pts win REQAABA (5.20 Bath)
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