5-4 NAP MAKES IT 10 BEST BETS UP OUT OF 15: Daqman suffered yesterday with a frustrating sequence of results in his first seven afternoon races 3232233. But the evening card at Newbury produced a winning nap, Ligeia (WON 5-4). He’s now on 10 out of 15, a 66% strike rate with returns of 111111104110421
HAT-TRICK OF BETDAQ BIG-RACE VALUE: There were huge overrounds, indicating the bookies take-out, on the day’s big races at Auteuil, The Curragh and Perth last season but all three were sub-110% on BETDAQ this morning, representing punter-friendly value.
Is Magician a superstar or a Classic fraud? Is Libertarian the next best thing to ruler of the racing world? We will know more today when the colt placed behind them, Trading Leather, returns to the track this afternoon.
It’s an all-Ireland racing day with the – traditional by now – Mullins stable raid on the big hurdles prize in Auteuil. But it’s an all-BETDAQ day, too, with the three big races I highlight all between 106 and 109% total probability this morning, against 125 (Auteuil), 121 (The Curragh) and a huge 134% (Perth) SP Total for the same three a year ago.
3.10 Auteuil (French Champion Hurdle, BETDAQ VALUE) Thousand Stars bids for a hat-trick and a fifth win for Willie Mullins in this Grande Course de Haies d’Auteuil.
In fact, it would be a sixth Mullins win, Willie’s late father, Paddy, having been successful with the horse that will always honour his name, Dawn Run (1984).
But there’s a ‘grande’ invasion today, with England’s champion, Paul Nicholls (oops, sorry Nicky) saddling the revitalized Celestial Halo, who beat seven of today’s field on the course in similar ground three weeks ago.
That was 2m 5f. This is 3m. And Celestial’s halo has slipped over the world-series distance: his scalp in the World Hurdle at Cheltenham was taken in March by Solwhit, who then left him for dead in the return match at Aintree.
But the stats are against Solwhit: no horse over the age of eight has won this race for more than 50 years. That goes for Celestial Halo, too. And Thousand Stars.
Are they all past it? Their form suggests not. But is there a new kid on the block? Answer: there are several and we know that one of them can match Celestial Halo and Thousand Stars, at least at 2m 5f.
Lord Prestige split them (they were first and fourth, he was second) in that recent Auteuil win of Celestial Halo’s.
Lord Prestige, and stablemate Saint Du Chenet, are with trainer Marcel Rolland who has won the race twice, including with jockey Regis Schmidin, who rides Saint Du Chenet for him today.
Jehan Bertran De Balanda has also won the race before (three times), including with the superb Le Sauvignon, who has the same rating as Comedy of Errors in the hall-of-fame of all-time great hurdlers.
His candidate today is Gemix, and so it is that we have three French pretenders from winning outfits. Serienschock has improved from Listed to Grade 3 but now faces the huge leap to Grade 1, whereas the three main French hopes already have form in Grade 2 at least.
I could back them all; I could side with the England and Ireland; but, as ever, I will line up with the value.
Saint Du Chenet has won a Grade 1 in similar conditions over CD and his defeats by Gemix this season seem to be because the trips were too short. He is the wrong price at 26.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
3.20 The Curragh A young horse (aged four or five) with a high draw wins this almost every time.. and at a big price! So worth a dabble on locally-trained Pierre d’Or (9.6 on BETDAQ as I write) under Kevin Manning.
3.50 The Curragh (Silver Stakes, BETDAQ VALUE) Top stables win this and three-year-olds do well, so I’m looking at the bottom four, where Trading Leather drops from the Group 1 Guineas to this Listed Silver Stakes.
As well as his third to Magician, Trading Leather has run up to Libertarian in the Dante, so the form ties in, as if he’s here to stay in top class.
But (there’s always a ‘but’, isn’t there), he’s only ever won on genuinely good ground or a surface with some cut in it, and he’s normally a front or van runner; The Curragh may use him up and remove his finishing kick.
And aren’t we in another Ballydoyle tactics play? Their Kingston Jamaica is also a pace horse, and then there’s Ansgar, who has led in two of his last three starts.
It’s Lines Of Battle all right. And they seem to be set up for that eponymous starter in two Derbys already this year.
Lines Of Battle won the Meydan Derby and was seventh (sloppy ground against him) in the Kentucky Derby.
You choose: do you want Trading Leather, who represents Irish Guineas and English Derby form but is going to be put on the Ballydoyle treadmill? Or do you want their Lines Of Battle, who is taking this in as an afterthought following two Derbys already?
The market decides for me. Ladbrokes are much the shortest about Lines Of Battle, which is a strong pointer, but I could get 5.8 on BETDAQ.
4.30 Perth (City Of Perth Gold Cup, BETDAQ VALUE) This sees the return of raiders who won it in 2006 (Evan Williams), 2007 (David Pipe), 2009 (Gordon Elliott) and 2012 (Peter Bowen).
Seven-year-olds have won five of the eight runnings, and two of their three contenders today have won on firm ground, Merrion Square and Aneyeforaneye.
Also in their favour is that both have excellent records on right-handed tracks, whereas De Boitron’s form is all left-handed.
Mumbles Head loves going clockwise and Perth is his favourite course but he’s 12 now and likes a bit of juice in the ground: it’s more than six years since he won on firm ground.
Pigeon Island is not out of it but may just have that bit too much weight. Prolific Points winner Nedzer’s Return could be anything, down in the ratings 8lb from the 145 which his trainer described as ‘crazy.’
The best offers on BETDAQ were 16.5 Aneyeforaneye and 11.5 Pigeon Island. Saver Merrion Square, though he would prefer genuinely good ground.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 0.8pts win and place SAINT DU CHENET (3.10 Auteuil)
BET 2.3pts win PIERRE D’OR (3.20 The Curragh)
BET 4pts win LINES OF BATTLE and 2.7pts win (stakes saver) TRADING LEATHER (3.50 The Curragh)
BET 1.9pts win PIGEON ISLAND and 1.25pts win ANEYEFORANEYE, plus 0.4pts win (stakes saver) MERRION SQUARE (4.30 Perth)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 10pts win STREET ENTERTAINER (nap, 2.45 Nottingham) with 3 x 2pt win doubles and 1pt win treble the same one with Pierre d’Or (3.20 The Curragh) and Lines Of Battle (3.50 The Curragh)
DAQMAN’S TARGETS: An above-average day but hard choices on firm ground. Singles are each to win 20 points.
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