CHELTENHAM: SEE HOW THEY WON: Daqman finds Irish trials this weekend which have thrown up four recent winners of the Supreme Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham, He checks out the runners in those trials and their Supreme offers in the BETDAQ ante-post orange.
BANKER BET AT HUNTINGDON: He tries big offers of 15.5 and 26.0 in races at Huntingdon today but is so confident of his even-money nap there that he makes it a banker.
*ABC correction: The stats code letters for Zubayr in yesterday’s Newbury Hurdle ABC guide should have been ACDX, and not as stated.
LEOPARDSTOWN OFFERS SUPREME!
Sunday’s trials are supreme. Since 2010 two consecutive races at Leopardstown have between them thrown up four winners and three places in the subsequent Supreme Novice Hurdle in the March of their year at Cheltenham.
Check out the astonishing prices in the BETDAQ ante-post orange, from 15.5 and 335.0, with all bar one of the 15 probables in those two Sunday races at better offers for Cheltenham than the best of the bookies odds.
It’s not surprise news that the Spring Juvenile Hurdle (2.30 start time) sees the Willie Mullins stable bidding for a hat-trick – no change there then – nor that he trains seven of the 15 that are doubly engaged between the two Sunday races and the Supreme.
In the last six seasons the Spring Hurdle winner has thrown up a Supreme winner (Our Conor), a second (Unaccompanied) and two thirds (Guitar Pete and last year Footpad).
In a second Grade 1 half an hour later, winners of the Deloitte Novice Hurdle (3.00 race) since 2010 were Supreme winners, Vautour and Champagne Fever, and a third to go on to score at Cheltenham, Dunguib, had been placed in the Deloitte.
Another winner of that race, Nichols Canyon, swerved the Supreme and contested the Neptune Novice Hurdle, in which he finished third.
BETDAQ odds about Supreme Novice Hurdle probables engaged in the two novice-hurdle trials on Sunday are as follows, with trainer and official rating or collateral rating estimate:
15.50 Chateau Conti (Willie Mullins) 148 (bookies 16-1): one hurdles run, one win; left clear three out when winning on heavy at Cork a month ago.
18.00 Bunk Off Early (Willie Mullins) 123 (bookies 25-1): one hurdles run, one win; beat nothing well – but big field of 24 – over Leopardstown CD on Boxing Day.
22.00 Saturnas (Willie Mullins) 154 (bookies 20-1): three hurdles starts, two wins, taking Grade-1 Future Champions Novice Hurdle over Leopardstown CD from Brelade
68.00 Riven Light (Willie Mullins) 137 (bookies 50-1); two hurdles starts; won maiden from 17 others at Thurles but beaten 14 lengths by Saturnas on the last day
78.00 Bacardys (Willie Mullins) 133 (bookies 33-1): two hurdles starts, winning the last one, over Leopardstown CD from stablemate Kolumbus, who then ran second to Gunnery Sergeant at Punchestown
78.00 Brelade (Gordon Elliott) 142 (bookies 66-1): two hurdles, one win, beating Boxing Day winner Joey Sasa at Navan in November before runner-up to Saturnas over Leopardstown CD.
82.00 Dinaria Des Obeaux (Gordon Elliott) 133 (bookies 33-1): one run, one win over hurdles, making ‘massive impression’ (say Racing Post racereaders), 29 lengths clear of 21 others.
168.0 Meri Devi (Willie Mullins) 117 (bookies 33-1)
196.0 Bravissimo (Willie Mullins) 122 (bookies 33-1)
198.0 Duca De Thaix (Gordon Elliott) 121 (bookies 50-1)
335.0 Barra (Gordon Elliott) 128 (bookies 33-1)
335.0 Blood Crazed Tiger (Gordon Elliott) 140 (bookies 50-1)
335.0 Bhutan (Joseph Patrick O”Brien) 117 (bookies 50-1)
335.0 Gunnery Sergeant (Noel Meade) 136 (bookies 66-1)
335.0 Landofhopeandglory (Joseph Patrick O’Brien) 140 (bookies 33-1)
BRONCO WORTH A BUCK TODAY
1.45 Huntingdon A 15.5 offer on BETDAQ this morning, Bronco Billy might be worth a pound in this. It’s a race his trainer has won twice in the last six years and the seven-year-old has the ‘form’ for it.
Bronco Billy, who won a hurdle here at Huntingdon in April, pulled up on the last day over fences at Wetherby after a modest run back at Worcester.
But the Jonjo O’Neill stable’s 14-1 winner in 2010 had pulled up in its previous race and its 2015 winner had tailed off, also on its second run back. The trainer has a 32% strike rate over femnces at Hungtindon
2.20 Huntingdon Noel Fehily, who rides Bronco Billy, will be hoping that first-time cheekpieces help Bags Groove bridge a gap of four grades to this Listed level,
All in the race are that far removed from Messire Des Obeaux, a hat-trick winner including a Grade 1, though its his Grade-2 defeat of Ballyandy that is topical, with that one heading most markets for Saturday’s Newbury hurdle.
The runner-up has franked the form of Keeper Hill’s Hereford win, and he’s well clear of Bags Groove on a line through Westerndorf. He looks the main danger to the favourite, receiving 8lb.
2.50 Huntingdon Barry Geraghty has just the one ride today, and that is for leading course trainer Nicky Henderson, who has had no fewer than nine winners since the turn of the year.
The single horse box from Lambourn contains Protek Des Flos, tailed off on his reappearance over fences but a Triumph Hurdle trial winner a year or so ago
I was on Allee Bleue (won 7-1) when her went 26 lengths clear at Leicester last week. Both Allee Bleue and Protek Des Flos were winners on heavy ground.
Those with good-ground winning form are Kalondra and Leoncavallo (well clear of Gibralfaro at Cheltenham in the autumn), and Who Dares Wins took a Listed on good to soft at Newbury in November.
Triumph Hurdle fifth last March, Leoncavallo is huge at 26.0, considering he twisted a shoe during his last two defeats and was second to Grade-2 winner, Sceaux Royal, in October. He had beaten Sceaux Royal as part of a five-timer a year earlier.
3.30 Doncaster Swoop To Conquer looks another hidden horse dropped back to the minimum since staying on late over 2m 5f at Exeter in November. Steps right up to 3m here off bottomweight.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points)
BACK 1.5pts win and place BRONCO BILLY (1.45 Huntingdon)
BANKER: 20pts win (nap) MESSIRE DES OBEAUX (2.20 Huntingdon)
BACK 1pt win and place LEONCAVALLO (2.50 Huntingdon)
BACK 6pts win SWOOP TO CONQUER (3.30 Doncaster)
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