DAQMAN’S ‘GIFT’ NAP WINS BETDAQ RACE: Noble Gift (WON 13-8) landed the nap for Daqman in a BETDAQ-sponsored race at Kempton Park last night.
FIVE WINNING DAYS IN A WEEK: That made it five winning days from the last seven as you join him for the opening of the July Meeting this afternoon.
1.40 Newmarket (Bahrain Trophy) John Gosden goes for a hat-trick in this race after Masked Marvel and Shantaram came with quite different CVs: one had run well in the Derby; the other was just a maiden winner.
Feel Like Dancing is different again. He drops back in trip from an excellent second in the 2m Queens Vase at Royal Ascot, after fluffing his Derby-trial lines, when stone last in the Chester Vase.
First-time cheekpieces may have helped him at Ascot, where Boite was third and Ray Ward fifth. As Pricewise says, Jamie Spencer has opted for Boite rather than Ray Ward, but then he would, wouldn’t he.
It was the second time Feel Like Dancing had finished in front of Boite and I know who I’d rather back between Gosden and Peter Chapple-Hyam.
Pricewise may be struggling to find the best price by comparing bookmakers’ lists, but I’m looking at a ready-made 103% ‘book’ here of BETDAQ offers, so I already have the value at a glance.
Kieren Fallon, also looking for his third winner in this race, thinks there’s more to come from Sandown-maiden winner Testudo, after only two runs.
But he was earlier well behind another another lightly-raced potential improver in Dare To Achieve when that one was second at Newbury in May to a subsequent Group-3 Royal Ascot winner. He then scampered clear to win a small-field Pontefract maiden six lengths.
VERDICT: There’s no reason why Feel Like Dancing, who’s had fewer races than both Boite and Ray Ward, shouldn’t finish in front of them again.
Dare To Achieve, a Galileo, has that ‘could be anything’ look to his form but, Testudo apart, the next six home in that May race at Newbury were all losers from 16 starts, so he has plenty to prove.
2.10 Newmarket (July Stakes) Coventry Stakes placers at Royal Ascot – Sir John Hawkins third – have been second twice and third twice in this, though none has won recently.
But the next five to finish behind Sir John at Ascot were all previous winners and the one he has to beat here, according to the betting, Figure Of Speech, beat only losers or debutants over today’s CD three weeks ago (Whaleweigh Station second). ‘Could be anything’ but can’t be backed at the price.
Richard Hannon has figures of 141 in this in the last three years – the winners include the then-once-raced Libranno – but Brown Sugar was beaten first time out by a horse that ran fifth in the Coventry. That colt, Jallota, had been only third to Astaire at York.
Richard Fahey has a good crop of juveniles this season and the Doncaster-winning form of the Candy Man colt Canyari has been franked by wins for the second and third.
VERDICT: The race does not always go to form but that’s the only way to bet and, from what we know, Sir John Hawkins should be closely followed home by Astaire, which makes Astaire’s 8.4 on BETDAQ all wrong.
2.40 Newmarket (Princess Of Wales’s Stakes) Favourites (10 losers in a row) and contenders coming from Royal Ascot (five out of five beaten in the decade) have flopped in this, and only one winner in 15 years has carried a penalty.
That all adds up to three black marks against Mark Johnston’s Universal, the Hardwicke Stakes third, and it’s an open race.
Lady Cecil is currently on a magic carpet but will need to conjure improvement from Wild Coco, whose form reads as if she needs an easier surface, and she is returning after a long absence.
Four-year-olds hold sway (five out of six) and Grandeur, another long-time absentee, looks their form horse. He was in very-fast-run top-Grade races in America, winning at Hollywood Park a massive five seconds faster than Universal did at Newmarket (holds Wigmore Hall).
But that begs the question: will Grandeur get the pace he needs (he set off ‘detached from the main pack’ in his Hollywood Derby swoop) and will he be ready first run back? Also against him is his Group-1 penalty.
If you turn to Godolphin for the winner, you find that Ahzeemah’s Group-3 success was only in Meydan and that Cavalryman hasn’t scored at today’s trip for nearly four years.
If you try to rely on Danadana, you find that all his success has come at 10 furlongs. It’s a tricky one, with only five points separating the whole field in the BETDAQ market, as I write.
VERDICT: A lot of question marks: about the ground for Wild Coco, the trip for Danadana and Cavalryman, the class for Ahzeemah, and the penalty for Universal.
But Ryan Moore has won this five times in seven years and Danadana comes from the race that has produced the winner twice in four seasons.
3.15 Newmarket Again, favourites have a stinking record (one win this century), yet the race goes to your favourite handicap trainers (Bell, Balding, Fahey, Cumani, Johnston).
Balding, who’s won it twice in five seasons, claims off Soviet Rock, who is back to his winning distance but looks vulnerable because of his make-all style of running and was behind Space Ship at Royal Ascot.
Johnston has three starters, including Maputo: that one and Red Avenger were well in arrears of Tarikhi in the Britannia, another Ascot handicap, but Maputo was badly drawn and Red Avenger, who finished strongly, was racing over the wrong trip.
Matrooh was favourite to beat subsequent Ascot Group-3 winner Remote at Doncaster but missed the break. Yet another that ‘could be anything’.
A very trappy race, with only BETDAQ putting a smile over the form-study frowns with a punter-friendly 106% list of offers in the orange, as I write. So we can have two or three bets.
VERDICT: The lightly-raced sorts, Tarikhi and Matrooh – even Goodwood Mirage – could improve past the others, but I think that, Britannia losers for reasons of the draw and the distance respectively, Maputo and Red Avenger, can bounce back here. Both 10.0, a similar offer to Space Ship, who is back to the right trip.
DAQMAN’S BETS: Above-average racing so stakes raised to win 30 points each win bet, excepting the lay, the banker at Bath and the place bet. A Value race is when BETDAQ offers tot up to lower than 110%. Gold Value is when Daqman opposes the favourite in one of those races.
VALUE BETS: 9pts win FEEL LIKE DANCING and 3.4pts win (stakes saver) DARE TO ACHIEVE (1.40 Newmarket)
VALUE BETS: 12pts win SIR JOHN HAWKINS and 4pts win ASTAIRE (2.10 Newmarket)
LAY to win 10pts UNIVERSAL plus GOLD VALUE BET: 5.5pts win DANADANA (2.40 Newmarket)
GOLD VALUE BETS: 3.3pts win on each MAPUTO, SPACE SHIP and RED AVENGER, with 2pts win (stakes saver) MATROOH (3.15 Newmarket)
BANKER BET: 20pts win (nap) PORTRAIT (8.40 Bath)
SPECIAL BET: 10pts place only Astaire (2.10 Newmarket) to land three out of three placed at decent prices.
DAQ MULTIPLES: 2 x 2pt win trebles Sir John Hawkins and Astaire (2.10 Newmarket) with Wadi Al Hattawi (4.15 Doncaster) and Portrait (8.40 Bath)
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