NOW IT’S 11 LAYS IN A ROW FOR DAQMAN: Reach-for-the-sky Daqman bets are celebrating 11 winning lays in a row after a 9th consecutive favourite was shot down yesterday. Three of them have been evens or odds on, and a nerve-wracking eight have been placed without winning. Here they are:
WON: Oct 30 DESERT SKIES (2nd 4-5 fav)
WON: Oct 29 EARTHFLIGHT (0 9-2)
WON: Oct 19 CIRRUS DES AIGLES (2nd 6-4 fav)
WON: Oct 17 FIRST LIEUTENANT (3rd 4-5 fav)
WON: Sep 30 BECKERMET (3rd 1-1 fav)
WON: Aug 26 BREAKING THE BANK (0 4-1)
WON: Aug 25 ASTONISHING (2nd 9-4 fav)
WON: Aug 25 CIRRUS DES AIGLES (0 2-1 fav)
WON: Aug 24 PARBOLD (3rd 11-4 fav)
WON: Aug 23 PAVLOSK (2nd 6-4 fav)
WON: Aug 23 SIMENON (2nd 15-8 fav)
TOMORROW AND SATURDAY: Look out this weekend for Daqman’s analysis of the multi-million-dollar three-day Breeders’ Cup meeting at Santa Anita, USA. Today he spots a fabulous four at BETDAQ value in the ante-post lists this morning.
BREEDERS’ CUP BETDAQ VALUE: MAGICIAN THREAT TO THE FUGUE
OUTSTRIP (5.7 BETDAQ but as short as 7-2 with bookmakers): Ballydoyle’s Giovanni Boldini heads the market for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf for colts (9.25 Santa Anita tomorrow).
But some bookies are running scared of Charlie Appleby’s Champagne Stakes winner, Outstrip, who couldn’t quicken off the soft surface in the Dewhurst Stakes recently but still managed third to the high-ranking War Command, who was winning his fourth race out of five.
CLENOR (10-1 with Ladbrokes, the firm you take notice of, but 14.5 on BETDAQ): Vorda and Chriselliam, two of my top first-season fillies of 2013, lead a fabulous European charge for the Juvenile Fillies Turf (10.50 Santa Anita tomorrow). But what about the home hopes?
The improver has to be Clenor, daughter of the Irish sire of International Cup winner Military Attack. She completed a hat–trick over the Santa Anita course and distance earlier this month.
MAGICIAN (9.2 BETDAQ but 5-1 in places with bookmakers): The Fugue is as short as 7-4 for Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup Turf (10.22 Santa Anita, Saturday) but the Magician himself, Aidan O’Brien, has other ideas about the direction of the £1m prizemoney.
He has patiently revived Magician since his flop at Royal Ascot behind Dawn Approach in the St James’s Palace Stakes. Magician had knocked himself beforehand and the extent of the injury was not felt until he was asked to let himself down during the race.
The son of Galileo had earlier beaten subsequent Jersey Stakes winner Gale Force Ten and Irish Derby hero, Trading Leather, in the Curragh 2,000 Guineas.
OLYMPIC GLORY (6.6 BETDAQ but only 7-2 with a leading bookmaker): Seven times Grade 1 winner in the US and Canada, Wise Dan will be a tough nut to crack in the Breeders’ Cup Mile (11.40 Santa Anita, Saturday).
But British champion miler Olympic Glory has youth on his side (three years younger) and a head of steam after taking his title at Ascot recently, whereas Dan was beaten for the first time in 15 months at Keeneland, attempting 10 successive wins.
TODAY’S RACING: THE NAP GOES FOR ‘GOLD’ AT 6.0 ON BETDAQ
2.20 Lingfield (Download the Ladbrokes App Handicap): Young horses triumph at this late stage in the season and, sure enough, it’s seven out of eight in this to those under five (4yo 5 and 3yo 2). Of that age group today, Favourite Treat ‘could be anything’ but is too easy to back at 9.8 as I write.
Al’s Memory (22.0 on BETDAQ this morning) returns to the scene of five course wins in lower grade but has won a class higher than today at Chester during his turf season, and may have been overlooked in the market.
Democretes (18.5) has had a modest year on grass but has been rested since the summer campaign, which included a neck defeat in class-2 at Newmarket.
Horsted Keynes, not much better than even money as I write, has raced only once, scoring at Wolverhampton, since breaking his maiden here almost a year ago.
You would not bet against Roger Varian holding him together for this one, but neither would you lump on at a short price. Capo Rosso is handicapped to get close to him now, but that one is no great shakes, with just a modest class-4 Warwick success in the last year and more.
2.40 Stratford Tony McCoy can buck any throw of the dice and he’ll be careless of the casino coincidence here on the number 7 on the card, Snake Eyes.
Snake eyes loses if seven comes up and seven loses if snake eyes comes up.. Get out of that!
2.50 Lingfield (Fleur De Lys Fillies’ Listed) Three-year-olds are currently 6-2 up over four-year-olds since 2005.
Of the four-year-olds, Enrol, who landed her maiden here on turf, is a Wolverhampton AW winner and this daughter of Pivotal’s best form beyond 6f since has been runner-up in a Listed on the soft at Newbury.
Forgive, also by Pivotal and out of an Efisio mare – breeding which screams soft ground on both sides – has won on AW at Kempton over a mile.
On a par with them in the ratings (Enrol 100, Forgive 99) is Galician, who has raced no fewer than 20 times this year, all her success coming in July. She’s failed at this Listed level twice this month on turf.
Of the second-season fillies, Indignant (6.4 on BETDAQ) rates 98 on her narrow defeat in big-field York handicap after excuses were made for her flop in a Group-3 at Goodwood. Sean Levey gets his chance, deputizing for the suspended Richard Hughes.
Masarah has been disappointing, and Mystical Sapphire has to raise her game from class 4, while Spinacre has only ever won with cut in the ground.
3.20 Lingfield (River Eden Fillies’ Listed) This seems to be a Group 3 in disguise until you note that Phiz, runner-up to The Lark in the Group 2 Park Hill Stakes, struggled in a Newmarket Listed, which also lowers the colours of Tempest Fugit (through Kikonga and Livia’s Dream).
It leaves you wondering if Phaenomena can make the leap from a class-3 handicap at Nemarket or that the Cheshire Oaks winner, Banoffee (9.8 on BETDAQ), can bounce back here, dropped from Group-1 level in the Nassau. My pound says the track and this company will suit.
7.00 Kempton If So has been beaten twice at class-3 level on turf since winning in a lower grade over today’s course and distance, but Exceptionelle wasn’t too far away, leaping to class-2 the last twice.
Before that, she had been the ‘moral’ at Sandown, beaten a neck, giving 6lb to the winner.
Goldream was thought worth a Listed attempt, sent to Chantilly three weeks ago, but his form has been on a sound surface and 6.0 this morning looks huge alongside his narrow defeat by Bogart at York in July.
Robert Cowell is a master with sprinters and the 5lb difference made to this handicap by claiming ace, Oisin Murphy, could tip the balance. A sporting nap on a tricky day.
DAQMAN’S BETS (All bets are to win 20 points)
BET 1.1pts win and place DEMOCRETES and 0.9pts win and place AL’S MEMORY (2.20 Lingfield)
BET 3.7pts win INDIGNANT (2.50 Lingfield)
BET 2.2pts win BANOFFEE (3.20 Lingfield).
BET 4pts win (nap) GOLDREAM (7.00 Kempton Park)
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