PREVIEW HORSE LOOKS HOT: Daqman has his Fortune Cookies, horses to follow throughout the season. Now he’s striking in the big races with his Preview Horses, which are picks for just the one event. Here’s another one today.
PLOT HORSE AT CHELMSFORD: Daqman tries to get the nap back on track with a short shot at Leicester but fancies something at 16.5 could be the plot horse of the day at Chelmsford tonight.
LOCAL WELSH NATIONAL WIN PLANNED
Quality can defy weight and beat the stats. As it did in Sunday’s Troytown Chase with Empire Of Dirt. Or in the Welsh National with Synchronised in 2010.
But, after Synchronised won off 11st 6lb when rated 150 – actually in January of the following year (race delayed by the weather) – the traditional stats would be restored. He was the exception that proved the rule for lowly-weighted winners in the Chepstow marathon.
In the five runnings of the race since then the winning weights have been 10st to 10st 8lb, with the ratings band exceptionally tight: three winners scored off 131 (twice) and 132. But the winning range in the five years – 128 to 137 – is unlikely to prevail again on December 27.
There is such a massive long handicap for a huge list of 102 entries that three horses rated 128 are numbers 82, 83 and 84 on the card, most unlikely to get in. Even the 137 high of the last five seasons is on the edge. Six horses with that rating are 51-56 on the card.
The 150 rating (that was Synchronised’s) has only 11st 3lb which means that the race is 3lb higher in quality even than that year.
Synchronised would go on to win the 2012 Gold Cup rated 167, so it could also be said that he was thrown in the Welsh National when he won it.
Some test of this year’s quality will be put on the line on Saturday in the Becher Chase: the likely Becher favourite, The Last Samuri, who was runner-up in the Grand National, has top weight of 11st 12lb at Chepstow off 159, the same weight and rating as the Hennessy winner, Indian River.
Right on the cusp of the winning-weight range of the last five years – if The Last Samuri runs – will be Mountainous on 10st 9lb, bidding for his third success in the race, and Firebird Flyer, who was second to Mountainous in the last renewal.
Firebird Flyer, who won the Midlands Grand National in March, has had a run back and his overall Chepstow form is 2432. He looks very interesting as number 37 on the card for Glamorgan trainer, Evan Williams, set only 10st 8lb but with a rating of 141 and form in the race. A local winner.
RASEN JUST RIGHT FOR LINGER’S STYLE
12.20 and 1.25 Market Rasen ‘Shark’ Hanlon came and saw and lingered. The start of his successful raid from County Carlow was a seven-lengths win for Linger at Ludlow three weeks back.
At first glance Linger will go the way of all horse-flesh in these juvenile hurdles, floored by the penalties; in fact, giving between 14lb and 21lb in this.
However, his 7lb claimer helps as an equalizer, and two of his main rivals, Flat winners Regal Gait and Vincent’s Forever, are from stables struggling for form.
The obvious threat, Iconic Sky, couldn’t beat a small field of losers, first time in cheekpieces on the last day. Left off now, as if they are uncertain what to do with her.
But what made my cursor linger over Linger at 5.2 in the BETDAQ orange was the manner of his Ludlow win. It speaks volumes for Market Rasen that he was always in the van and skipped seven lengths clear.
Moreover, he was flooring an odds-on shot from a top yard, himself a seven-lengths winner earlier on at Huntingdon, which had his trainer ‘delighted’ and aiming ‘at a better race.’
Hanlon runs Refused A Name (1.25) on this card, also a big price at offers of 7.4 if he can bounce back with Paddy Brennan booked. Bertenbar (2.6) the obvious saver.
2.05 Leicester Thankyou Very Much loves a small field on a right-hand track on good ground. He has all these conditions here, and was quite impressive on the last day, stretching them out at Musselburgh seven lengths, 16 lengths and 12.
2.35 Leicester Nicky Henderson could lay the ghost of Oadby Park – he has a very poor record here – when Clemency bids to step up on her effort at Sandown, nearly knocked over as she made her challenge: 3.9 favourite on BETDAQ early mouse.
They couldn’t give Sweetlittlekitty away this morning (aaah!) at 6.0 and a similar price about Deja Bougg suggested no faith in the first-time tongue-tie. Tullow Tonic was not at the races, very easy to back at 9.0.
6.45 Chelmsford Trainer Jimmy Fox took the ring apart at Kempton yesterday when a horse that had beaten one home in three previous starts won as he liked.
Today Jimmy saddles a 16.5 BETDAQ offer, Purple Belle, who ran with promise at Kempton on the last day, suggesting that she needs this step up in trip.
She’s started at 100-1 (twice), 66-1 (three times) and 50-1. But several bookies would give you only 12-1 for starters this morning.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked 1 to 9 for strength)
BET 6pts win LINGER (12.20 Market Rasen)
BET 3pts win REFUSED A NAME and 2pts win (stakes saver) BERTENBAR (1.25 Market Rasen)
BET 9pts win (nap) THANKYOU VERY MUCH (2.05 Leicester)
BET 6pts win CLEMENCY (2.35 Leicester)
BET 2pts win and place PURPLE BELLE (6.45 Chelmsford)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3pts win double THANKYOU VERY MUCH (2.05 Leicester) and CLEMENCY (2.35 Leicester), and 1pt win treble with PURPLE BELLE (6.45 Chelmsford)
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