DAQMAN LAUNCHES JUMPS SEASON WITH A HOT LAY: Daring Daqman opens his jumps account today, as the Flat winds down, opening his lays wallet by opposing an odds-on shot in a Graded race in Ireland.

IT’S PIPE ALL THE WAY AT WINCANTON: His nap is also over the sticks. He reckons a David Pipe horse can make all the running at Wincanton, but questions why there were 23.0 offers this morning about his place bet in the same race.


Strange things happen over the sticks at this time of year. But it wouldn’t be too strange if First Lieutenant was turned over first run back at Punchestown (4.15) today.

First of all it’s a rare occasion for all concerned, since very few graded races in Ireland are run on good ground. You simple don’t know how some horses will perform.

Secondly, First Lieutenant ran a stinker on his racecourse return last season, which was blamed on his aversion to right-handed tracks (like Punchestown today). It’s not so much ‘aversion’ – he’s won on them – than that they affect his jumping.

In fact, he’s won only once in two years on any track, albeit racing at the highest level, and has scored only once in his career beyond 2m 4f, and that in April on the left-handed merry-go-round which is Aintree.

First Lieutenant may skip away with today’s race but, betting wise, we are starting a lays sequence which eats odds-on shots for breakfast.

My target, a 72% strike rate, which I’ve never failed to get in seven years, in a total of 14 seasons, Flat and jumps, is nailed to favourites. But, to a level stake of 10 points, we can readily make up ground on 2-1 on shots if they lose and cost us a half-stake.

I shall be showing off my Flat record in an update, well before the Flat lady sings, and we have to start now stockpiling horses to follow, and trying to build a bank for the jumps.

On our side against First Lieutenant is Roi Du Mee, who has won the race for the last two years, and Tofino Bay, who scored first run back of the autumn-winter campaign last September.

He was second in the Punchestown Champion Novice Chase and was beaten only half a length in the NH Chase at Cheltenham, so can be expected to test the field for stamina today.

The young pretender is Toner d’Oudairies, another on a hat-trick mission, up 12lb in the ratings in less than a month. Come on you guys, flush out the weakness in the favourite! Make him jump right-handed.

In England, we have class-2 races at Cheltenham on Saturday and Listed events on an exciting jumps card at Kempton on Sunday.

Uttoxeter is back today, alongside Wincanton, the home of many decent NH trials, with its quick fences and downhill finish suitable to testing chasers at speed.

Buckhorn Tom (2.20) couldn’t be more local to Wincanton – he’s named after the next village – and Colin Tizzard will want to add to his success in this race last year, with Tom dropping back in trip from a stamina test first time back.

Sugar Hiccup goes for a four-timer, dropping down to novice company, while Golanova, son of Ascot King George winner, Golan, should improve.

This is where you come in. For me, betting on BETDAQ is in two parts: taking an early generous offer, then latching on to the market strength of a horse near the ‘off’.

If those are two different horses, so be it. If they are one and the same, then you have a closer and you can lay off.

The market has been getting this novice-hurdle handicap right, so check off my reading of 4.7 Sugar Hiccup, 5.4 Buckhorn Tom, 6.2 Golanova, 8.0 Chilworth Screamer against the offers near to race time and see what’s picking up a head of steam.

The early position must be Chilworth Screamer’s 8.0, with Richard Johnson booked. The partnership won on the course in May in a class-5, but the mare stepped up to score at Fontwell in class 3 last time out.

In theory, we can chop the 2m handicap hurdle (3.20) in half, cutting away the 10-year-old Alweaystheoptimist as too slow at his age, Right Step for his appalling Flat form, and both Jumps Road and Minella Definitely for their preference for soft ground.

Oscar Prairie (23.0 on BETDAQ this morning) may not be the dead wood he seems. He goes well fresh – autumn comeback figures 11P – and likes Wincanton, second twice despite soft ground being against him each time.

Mount Vesuvius is back to his winning trip but up a stone since August, and Multitude Of Sins didn’t beat much at Newton Abbot.

So it is that David Pipe’s My Brother Sylvest may have the run of the race, with the stamina – he’s won up to 2m 6f – to stay on in front.

The 3.30 Uttoxeter could throw up a decent sort. Punters get the race right – two winning favourites out of two so far – and it’s fascinating to see which one of Flemenson and Halo Moon will head the market at the ‘off.’

Big and immature, Halo Moon has been given time by Don McCain, while the 190,000 price-tag and Flemenson’s name tells you his stalwart pedigree.

My cobbler owns Norphin (4.10 Brighton). Hardly looks nailed on, eh, Jeff! But, yes, I’m still poor enough to have my boots mended and, if all meetings were at Brighton, I wouldn’t even be able to afford any boots to wear.

I can’t make a profit there but I know a man who does: trainer Roger Varian has a 45% strike-rate on the seaside track and, as I write, there are enough in the race to have a win and place bet on Orbison (2.40 Brighton) at 8.0 this morning.

Orbison’s sire gets soft-ground winners, witness his success with fillies in the 2012 Prix De Diane and this year’s Musidora on the soft. Come on Orbison! You got it.

DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 2.8pts win CHILWORTH SCREAMER (2.20 Wincanton)
BET 2.8pts win and place ORBISON (2.40 Brighton)
BET 9pts win MY BROTHER SILVEST (nap), and 0.9pts win and place OSCAR PRAIRIE (3.20 Wincanton)
BET 7.5pts win FLEMENSON and 3pts win (stakes saver) HALO MOON (3.30 Uttoxeter)
LAY 10pts FIRST LIEUTENANT (4.15 Punchestown)


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