DAQMAN’S AYR GOLD CUP ABC GUIDE: Daqman spots the horses with the best chances in Saturday’s Ayr Gold Cup.
Check out the runners as the draw is declared today. Here’s the key to the code, with the stats in parentheses, going back up to 18 years:
A: Four and five years old (14 out of 18)
B: Rated 97-106 (7 out of 8)
C: Carried 9st or more (7 out of 8)
D: Winner trained in Yorkshire (11 out of 13)
Look high in the Ayr Gold Cup handicap for class and quality. I’ve reviewed past results into the last century for the age of the winner but limited my analysis of the ratings to the last eight years. Handicaps have changed in the decade.
They are shorter and they are worth more, and so tend to go to quality horses in the 9st-plus range. The soft ground will be another equalizer on Saturday.
ABCD Baccarat Very lightly raced (eight runs – four wins). Badly drawn at Ascot and hampered at York, he came good in the Great St Wilfrid at Ripon by a neck from Spinatrix.
Now 7lb worse off with that one but unexposed, and much depends on how he copes with the soft ground. Also 6lb worse with Khubala, third when he was fifth to Tropics in that York Dash on firm.
ABCD Bogart Won on good to soft as a two-year-old but best form since on firm ground at the minimum trip, although eighth in Group-2 at York with cut in the ground in the Spring.
Gelded before winning again at York in August, also over the minimum 5f, but well adrift of Angels Will Fall in the Portland last Saturday
ABCD Spinatrix Six successes on a soft or easy surface, all over 6f, and weighted to turn around Great St Wilfrid form with Baccarat.
Ayr CD winner twice but now rated 10lb above her last victory
ABC Angels Will Fall A Daqman selection twice this season, I foolishly gave up on him just when the ground turned in his favour last Saturday and he trotted up in the Portland, having traded blows in the pattern before that. Still races off a mark lower than when he won at Ayr last summer.
ABC Highland Colori Has won on the soft and it was heavy when he was beaten a short-head in the Silver Cup last year – the earlier split of this on Saturday’s card – with Spinatrix fourth and Hamza sixth. Has done all his racing over 7f since.
ABC Nocturn No reason on Spring form why he should beat Mass Rally but should hold those behind, including York Glory and Louis The Pious. Another good run with cut in the ground, a length second to Tropics – and 5lb better now – at Newmarket last month.
ABC Shropshire Like Angels Will fall from the same yard, I’ve given him plenty of chances, and the grey Wokingham runner-up remains on his highest mark. Doesn’t mind some cut but well down the field in this on heavy last season.
ABD Lightning Cloud A long way adrift in the Silver Cup last year but has been put up 10lb since then after a shock win in the Buckingham Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot (class 2, good to firm). Has won on soft but doesn’t want it heavy.
AB Khubala Always thereabouts, gradually improving into the pattern. Closely matched with Gabriels Lad (Ascot soft, last backend) with Tropics (Windsor and York) and with York Glory and Shropshire (Wokingham) and has won on the soft.
ACD Hamza Sixth in the Silver Cup (heavy) a year ago and 13lb higher now. However, has shown dramatic improvement, placed in Group 3 races this summer and fading only in the final furlong in the Haydock Sprint (Group 1).
ACD Jack Dexter Excellent strike rate outside the pattern: 211111 on soft ground, including last year’s Bronze Cup. Some 26lb improvement since, and not disgraced at the very top level, fourth in the Group-1 Kings Stand Stakes.
ACD York Glory Wokingham winner from Shropshire and 5lb worse off with that one now but was never threatened at Ascot (Khubala 4th, Gabriels Lad 9th, Mass Rally 11th). Behind Mass Rally and Nocturn at York in the Spring.
AC Tropics Four wins out of six, and sixth in the Stewards Cup but badly in with Nocturn on Newmarket form last month. See Baccarat and Khubala.
AB Gabriels Lad Not ground dependent, and the ‘moral’ at Ascot recently, when beaten only a neck, giving 4lb to the winner (class 2). See Khubala
ABC Duke Of Firenze, ABC Lover Man, AB Red Dubawi, AC Arnold Lane, BCD Captain Ramius, BCD Mass Rally, BCD Tiddliwinks BC Hasopop, BC Humidor, BC Jimmy Styles, BC Santefisio, BD Whozrthecat, CD Hoof It, C Hawkeyethenoo
EFFECT OF THE DRAW Winners by stall in the last eight years: 10, 8, 2, 6, 22, 20, 15, 17, 12, 8 (Captain Ramius 2012).
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 4pts win FLOATING ALONG, 2.5pts win LOVE ISLAND (4.00 Pontefract)
BET 2.5pts win CLAYTON (4.40 Ayr)
BET 5.5pts win EXCELLENT PUCK and 2.5pts win (stakes saver) McDELTA (7.10 Kempton)
BET 10pts win (nap) JAZZ MASTER (8.40 Kempton)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3pts win double MONTEFELTRO (4.20 Yarmouth) and JAZZ MASTER (8.40 Kempton)
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