COOL 8-1 NAP BY KING OF THE NATIONALS: Renowned for his National winners, Daqman struck again yesterday with Coolking (WON 8-1 from 10.0 on BETDAQ) in the Lingfield Surrey National. Last year he had the Irish National (34.0 Rogue Angel) and the Aintree original (50.0 Rule The World), so he’s bang on cue for the season of marathons.
DAQMAN’S SHOCK GRAND NATIONAL REPORT: Daqman writes open letters to handicapper Phil Smith and owner Michael O’Leary, concerning their dispute over the Grand National weights. He calls for an end to the special treatment given selectively to some runners.
STOP PLAYING WITH THE NATIONAL..
You’re wrong Mr Smith! Estimating a horse’s potential for the Grand National by a personal readjustment of the weights, making allowances for some and not others, is simply asking for trouble.
It prompts controversy and rancour, such as the current argument instigated by Michael O’Leary against your assessment of the Gigginstown Stud entries Outlander, Empire Of Dirt and Don Poli, who are no longer probables, not even possibles, contends the irate Mr O’Leary.
He may well be cutting off his nose to spite his face – all three have excellent chances – and I know, Mr Smith, that you get owners and trainers on at you all the time (usually because you do your job too darned well!)
In building up the level of the Grand National, three main factors have pertained: modification of the fences to create a safety level which would attract the more valuable horses (inevitably reflected in the weights); increased prizemoney; and giving those quality horses a helping hand with weights that could be punitive over the marathon trip.
That’s all been done. Fences have been modified; prizemoney boosted; quality animals like Many Clouds attracted to the race (and won it, though to what detriment we can only surmise).
But the weights continue to be based on speculation rather than ratings. Base ratings are not there to be tampered with by the assessor (sorry, ‘compressed’) and, therefore, turned into future ratings.
Future ratings are adjustments, mainly for trip and ground, for speculating on the outcome of a particular event. That’s not your job.
Yes, I realise that, in the first place, ratings are opinions but unless, as a general rule, you are always going to modify them for all horses for different tracks and different distances, you have no defence against leniency to some which inevitably creates hardship for others in one particular race.
The Grand National quality is at a record level this year. The number of horses rated above 150 is the highest ever (34), compared with exactly half that number (17) a decade ago. Some 88% of the runners have marks above 135. As I say, job done.
OR REDUCE THE WEIGHTS ALL ROUND!
You’re wrong Mr O’Leary! The truth is that the Grand National sucks. It is an amazing spectacle, a race of great horses, of courage and stamina, not to mention jockeyship and training skill.
But it sucks in the original terminology of a debased American coinage, which was: ‘It sucks the life out of you!’ In this case, out of the horse.
Judge for yourself regarding winners this century: only four have taken any first prize since winning at Liverpool.
Never raced again: Neptune Collonges.
Never won again under Rules: Ballabriggs, Comply Or Die, Don’t Push It, Hedgehunter, Mon Mome, Silver Birch
Never even placed again: Amberleigh House, Auroras Encore, Red Marauder, Montys Pass, Numbersixvalverde, Rule The World.
Poor strike rate after: Bindaree (1-16), Pineau De Re (1-13), Papillon (1-11), Many Clouds (2-6 and seemed to be the exception until that fateful day at Cheltenham in January when he died shortly after winning the Cotswold Chase).
In any dispute, first option is to try to find some common ground. Where are Mr Smith and Mr O’Leary in agreement? Answer: on one point.
Horses are clearly carrying too much weight over the marathon distance and it could damage them irreparably to try to win this race. It certainly does, as my list reveals. Mr O’Leary feels that way, or at least his brother, Eddie, told the Racing Post:
‘We decided to retire (last year’s winner) Rule The World as we expected he would be top weight if we sent him back to Aintree this year. He’s a fragile horse, though a talented one.’
It takes a Red Rum or a L’Escargot to leap – literally – from 10st-odd to the higher 11st seam or even 12st. ‘They don’t make ’em like that any more’ is literally true, according to my veterinary information.
I think that, for the Grand National, the concession made by the handicapper should be given to all horses. If a few pounds are so important, it may save horses for the future to lower the weights.
It may even save the race! Because sooner or later those concerned with animal welfare will demand more changes when they check out the fate of past winners as I have done.
But I don’t think that a handicapper has a right to take his pick when making concessions, nor has the owner to complain solely about his own horses against a professional doing his job in difficult circumstances.. unless both are going to agree terms first.
Those terms should be the welfare of the horse, not – as seems to be the case in this dispute – siding with any particular horse or horses as a means to an end.
My veterinary advisor says that tampering with the fences and the weights misses the point. I had asked why are the winners so badly affected, when others down the field race on?
‘He says: If horses are still jumping at the end of four miles, they’re fine. But to then ask them to ‘sprint’ under the whip for another half mile is the killer, more damaging than the fences these days.’
SILVER LOOKS GOLD AT TAUNTON
2.30 and 3.30 Wetherby Venetia Williams makes the long haul to Wetherby with two good chances.
Top And Drop (3.0 BETDAQ offers in the 2.30) starts out at a low level over fences but should make a quick transition from a consistent hurdles career, as a half-sister to Walford Salad who won three novice chases for the yard.
Plaisir D’Amour (big at 7.0 in the 3.30) is having only his second English start, dropped in class and trip, and in the conditions that saw him a clear winner in the French provinces. The stable has won two of the last three runnings of this.
3.00 Wetherby Jerrysback is engaged at Cheltenham in both the Neptune and the Albert Bartlett, and this is quite a D-Day for the soft-heavy winner as he now races on better ground.
The surface and the track are already home to Eaton Hill (3.8 on BETDAQQ) who broke the winning sequence of Mount Mews over CD in January.
Mount Mews and the fourth to finish have both won since; go back 17 more lengths and even the fifth horse home has been placed after.
4.20 Taunton A level-2 hurdle, won by classy players Sire De Grugy and Fox Norton, though a dangerous one to bet in today perhaps, as Dan Skelton fields three.
But his trio are all a bit old for a speed race over the minimum on goodish ground. Five out of six winners were all younger than seven.
I’m betting on a revival from Tommy Silver, Triumph Hurdle seventh who has been given a big chance at the weights – including the claim – 10lb lower than for his Welsh Champion Hurdle seventh only two races back in October. His last run was in the Gerry Fielden (4.1 on BETDAQ, as I write)
DAQMAN’s BETS (the stake is the strength of each bet)
BET 7pts win TOP AND DROP (2.30 Wetherby)
BET 5pts win EATON HILL (3.00 Wetherby)
BET 1pt win and place SAPPHIRE NOIRE (3.20 Taunton)
BET 2pts win and place PLAISIR D’AMOUR (3.30 Wetherby)
BET 9pts win (nap) TOMMY SILVER (4.20 Taunton)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 2 x 3pt win doubles EATON HILL and JERRYSBACK (3.00 Wetherby) with TOMMY SILVER (4.20 Taunton)
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