DAQMAN TO LAUNCH DIAMOND BET: Daqman, who scored 206 points profit with 17 wins in three days over the weekend, is never satisfied and today he tries to improve his betting on bankers, with a staking plan which includes a Diamond bet.
TODAY OVER JUMPS AND ON THE FLAT: Daqman goes through today’s only two fixtures at Fakenham and Southwell. He looks for all the best value, as always, with the Nap of the day coming over the sticks at Fakenham.
LOOK OUT FOR DAQMAN DIAMOND BANKERS
Let me ask you a question or two about your betting.
Questions you should be asking yourself on a regular basis, if you are to make the right picks on the racecards before you this morning.
First question today (there’ll be more in the coming weeks) concerns the end of that sentence – ‘the racecards before you this morning’ – because we have seen in the last year or two how midweek racing has hit some pretty low spots, and how small fields have finally attracted the attention of the powers-that-be.
Something must be done. But what? While we are waiting for them to decide on structure, we have to do something for ourselves. We have to modify our bets and our stakes – our own structure – to suit the new situation.
Are you on the ball on this one? Small fields mean poor pace. Lack of pace means the likelihood of a true-run race is reduced.
True-run races should produce results true to form, more often than not, though not always. Horses are not machines, and some can’t hold their peak for very long, particularly those midweek, lower-class animals.
So, if you add to that small fields, and maybe heavy ground, then you have the ingredients for shocks, even when the favourite is odds on.
A string of odds-on winners needs to be as high as 70% to produce a level-stakes profit. At my current rate of 50%, I can’t make it pay. Two changes should set us back on the right track.
Firstly, we’ll reduce, sometimes even eliminate, betting at odds on, within reason. And we’ll grade the banker bets so that we stake according to strength.
We’ll go in big (30 to 50 points) on DIAMOND bankers, but reduce to 20 points for GOLD bankers and 10 points for maximum-stakes on an ordinary day, run-of-the-mill BANKER.
I said ‘within reason’ for backing at odds-on, because all betting should have its staking plan with one sacred word at its core. Value.
That’s the ultimate question. Is the price you are offered in the BETDAQ orange value for money? You can be sure it’s punter-friendly (not heavily biased in the layer’s favour) but how does the offer relate to the horse’s chance against the other runners?
A 2-1 on shot may be fabulous value because only an accident can prevent success, whereas a 2-1 against offer may not be, because there are unexposed horses against it, or we have those circumstances of a small field on heavy ground.
I’ll be looking more closely at value in another article. Meanwhile, I’ll bring in my new scheme of things where bankers are concerned, ‘buying money’ only when the bet glitters. For a gold or diamond return.
Diamond Bankers will be rare; maybe only half a dozen a season, or maybe just 10 a year. Gold maybe 20 or 30 a year. Ordinary bankers are simply maximum stakes (10) on a low-level day.
Strangely, unless you understand that the better the horses the stronger the chance of a race being run to form, Gold and Diamond high-stakes bets are more likely to occur at major meetings like Cheltenham.
But watch this space? EVERY DAY, please. There may be some in the next six weeks, before Cheltenham and Aintree. Only value on the day will decide.
RENDEVOUS AT 2.05 FOR THE NAP
FAKENHAM It’s not exactly a card that would set alight any enthusiasm for racing at Fakenham today. Nevertheless there are a couple of decent bets to be made at the Norfolk track.
In the second race, a competitive Novice Hurdle that should produce a couple of winners at this level in the future. Royale Django, Baku Bay and Haatefina are all open to progress from their first tries over hurdles while Rock Of Ages was useful on the flat but this is a tough ask on his debut. Royale Django is likely to fair out best of these.
It is hard to look past A Boy Named Suzi, who appears to set the standard. He won by a short head last time out over Christmas after being beaten by the very useful Aqalim. Lucy Wadham’s gelding was also a good performer on the flat with a 4th place to his name in the Group 2 Yokshire Cup. He will take quite a bit of stopping.
At 2.05, there is a nice Handicap Hurdle over two and a half miles where it looks like Redevous Peak has a great opportunity of adding to his debut win last time out at Huntingdon. Although he’s got a 6lb rise in the weights it doesn’t look overly harsh and he may have more improvement in him.
Cappielow Park looks to be the biggest danger while Raktiman is also a big threat but it is going to be quite difficult to beat Rendevous Peak.
In the penultimate race over two miles and seven furlongs it looks quite tough despite there only being eight runners. Although Vision Du Coeur was an extremely easy winner over course and distance on New Years Day, an 8lb hike won’t be easy to overcome in a race like this.
Instead, I’m going to take a chance on Destroyer Deployed who is dropping backing in class and has been given some leeway by the handicapper. Running off 120, he is 5lbs below his chase mark and for a horse that was once 2nd in the Champion Bumper, that is probably all the allowance he needs. Despite being beaten by 20 lengths last time, it was a decent race a Cheltenham and he is given as a tentative selection.
SOUTHWELL I have just one selection on the All Weather at 2.15 which looks like a competitive race despite being not being filled with class.
I’m taking a chance on Bushtiger who is stepping up in trip for the first time having run three times at the minimum trip on turf. It’s not out of the realms of possibility that the switch to All Weather twinned with the step up in trip will bring out ample improvement and running off a mark of 45 seems quite fair for the level of form he’s shown so far.
Excelling Oscar has a very good record over course and distance but he is creeping up in the handicap very steadily and may prove vulnerable to an improver at the other end of the Handicap.
DAQMAN’S BETS (Staked 1 to 9pts for strength, 10pts maximum stakes for a Banker)
BET 6pts win A BOY NAMED SUZI (1.35 Fakenham)
BET 8pts win (Nap) RENDEVOUS PEAK (2.05 Fakenham)
Bet 3pts win DESTROYER DEPLOYED (3.15 Fakenham)
BET 4pts win BUSHTIGER (2.15 Southwell)
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