UP HILL! 16.0 SHOT PASSES CHELTENHAM TESTS: Daqman today takes 16.0 ante-post Josses Hill on BETDAQ for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle next Tuesday, after picking holes in the favourites, Vautour and Irving.
DAY ONE OF THE FESTIVAL STATS: It’s all part of his stats tests for the Festival, a race-by-race guide one week ahead to what you can expect day by day if things turn out as they have in recent years.
BID FOR A FOURTH NATIONAL: Daqman today bids for a fourth National winner in 2014. He’s also given the winners of the two big National tests, the Thyestes and the Haydock Park Trial:
WON 4-1 SUN CLOUD North Yorkshire National (January)
WON 14-1 FLYING AWARD Somerset National
WON 12-1 ON HIS OWN Thyestes Chase
WON 9-2 EMPERORS CHOICE West Wales National (February)
WON 16-1 RIGADIN DE BEAUCHENE Grand National Trial
OUR FATHER NOW WELL HANDICAPPED/ FOLLOW THE MARKET IN THE ARKLE
1.30 Cheltenham, Tuesday (Supreme Novices’ Hurdle): There are 102 possibles in this, but only 14 are capable of taking ‘the main chance’, according to the stats.
To reach that ‘short list’, you delete all those with more, or less, than two to four hurdles runs (at least one must be a win); all that have fallen; all without bumper experience; and all four-year-olds and horses over the age of six.
The two hot favourites, Irving and Vautour, do not qualify because neither has big-field bumper experience, which is the new trend with an 80% strike rate.
The order in, if the BETDAQ market has it right, is: 9.2 Wicklow Brave, 16.0 Josses Hill, 21.0 Western Boy, Valseur Lido, 27.0 The Liquidator, 50.0 Faugheen.
Making up the 14 are rank outsiders Garde La Victoire, Vieux Lion Rouge, Cheltenian, Lieutenant Colonel, Mountain King, Noble Endeavour, Stellar Notion and Vice Et Vertu.
A final test for class in this race would inevitably point to Josses Hill, second in the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle and 10-1 with a plethora of bookmakers.
DAQMAN’S ANTE-POST: BET (to win 30pts): 2pts win JOSSES HILL (16.0 on BETDAQ)
2.05 Cheltenham, Tuesday (Arkle Challenge Trophy): Forget any contender older than seven; with more than four chase starts; or which hasn’t reached the first three in a Graded chase.
Qualifiers: Arnaud, Age Of Logistics, Ballycasey, Bright New Dawn, Champagne Fever, Djakadam, Dodging Bullets, Don Cossack, Grandouet, Ted Veale, Trifolium, Valdez.
But then, 13 of the last 14 winners had a rating of 142 or more and nine of the last 10 had won or been placed at the Cheltenham Festival before.
You’re really down to 3.75 on BETDAQ about the Supreme Novice Hurdle winner, Champagne Fever (rated 144 over fences), and 5.9 the third, Trifolium (rated 156), against Triumph Hurdle fourth Dodging Bullets (chase rating 155) at 7.8.
DAQMAN’S HORSES TO FOLLOW: Trifolium
2.40 Cheltenham, Tuesday (Festival Chase) One for win-and-place backers, with six successes between 5-1 and 8-1 SP in the last decade.
Only one winner has broken through the 11st barrier, and the winning-ratings parameter has a 10st 11lb maximum this year.
Four of the last five winners had been dropped between 5lb and 10lb in the ratings in the lead up to this.
The first one in the market to qualify is Our Father, one-time 20-lengths winner of a novices’ chase at Cheltenham. Just two runs this year, seventh in the Hennessy and fifth in the Grand National trial. Our Father is set to carry 10st 10lb.
Our Father is also engaged in the Kim Muir later in the week, so we will have to wait and see which way he goes and how he will be regarded in the BETDAQ markets.
3.20 Cheltenham, Tuesday (Champion Hurdle) Hurricane Fly must be a Hattons Grace (1949-51) or a Sea Pigeon (1980-81) to win it at the age of 10.
Modern champions with more than two wins in the race started their sequence at age seven, including Hurricane Fly himself. The only seven-year-old in the race is My Tent Or Yours.
His trainer, Nicky Henderson, had a sequence winner (See You Then 1985-7) and the stable came good again with two six-year-olds, Punjabi and Binocular, in the modern era.
DAQMAN’S HORSES TO FOLLOW: My Tent Or Yours, Our Conor
4.00 Cheltenham, Tuesday (Mares’ Hurdle) The history of this race, in the last five years of its six-year existence, is Quevega, Quevega, Quevega, Quevega, Quevega.. and likely to be six in a row next Tuesday.
But one of the meeting’s hot-pots will surely fall, and I shall be looking for a young mare, win and place, to topple the second 10-year-old favourite of the day in consecutive races.
4.40 Cheltenham, Tuesday (NH Chase) Jonjo O’Neill saddled four winners out of five in this between 2002-7. He has Shutthefrontdoor and Holywell among the fancied horses, and a six-year-old (like the favourite Foxrock) has won only once since 1990.
5.15 Cheltenham Some 80% of winners of this novices’ chase came from the first five in the SP market.
Seven-year-olds seem to have a big advantage (66% strike rate), yet only three runners of that age – all Irish – are currently sure to beat the cut: Byerley Babe, Balnaslow and Some Ticket.
TODAY’S RACING: EXPECT A ‘FLYING’ FINISH TO THE DEVON NATIONAL
3.00 Exeter (Devon National) Last year’s winner and third, The Clyda Rover (12lb higher) and Musical Wedge (1lb lower), are back again, though both have been badly out of form the last twice.
‘Rover’ wasn’t fancied for either of those (14-1 and 25-1) and Paul Moloney’s mount, who also won the Marathon on this course off 2lb lower than today, has had since November 17 to get sorted and be prepared for today’s defence.
Alderluck was fourth in this season’s Marathon in December but has won only once – a grade lower – since 2011. His best form is left-handed (5-14) and he’s taken just the one prize going clockwise (1-17).
The snag with betting in this race is that Somerby (not to be confused with Somersby), Five Star Wilsham, Coolking and Armedanddangerous are all unexposed at today’s trip.
It should suit Five Star Wilsham, who is out of an Over The River mare, and trainer Jeremy Scott has taken this prize before, though you wonder why ‘Wilsham’ comes to long distance now when he’s already aged 10.
Flying Award has been penalised just 4lb for winning the Somerset National in January and he’s also won the Highland National at Perth. He was pulled up last time out but had also run badly before Perth.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Only one point separates four horses at the front of the BETDAQ market, as I write, but a 106% orange means you are in a punter-friendly zone (the SP market totted up to 124% in 2012).
The Clyda Rover could bounce back but Flying Award has earned his wings more than once for this sort of event and 6.2 this morning looked generous.
DAQMAN’S BETS (to win 20 points each but 30 ante-post)
BET 3.8pts win FLYING AWARD (3.00 Exeter)
BET 5.7pts win (nap) BALLYTOBER (3.30 Exeter)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 4 x 1pt win trebles and 1pt acca Flying Award (3.00 Exeter), Be Bop Boru (3.20 Newcastle), Ballytober (3.30 Exeter), Capote (4.00 Exeter)
ANTE-POST: BET 2pts win JOSSES HILL (16.0, Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, Cheltenham, Tuesday)
* Selections were updated at midday. Stipulation of NAP on Ballytober missing and bet on FLYING AWARD omitted. Apologies
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