DAQMAN HOPS ON A 3-1 WINNER: Hopatina (WON 3-1) secured a small profit on Daqman’s single bets yesterday. His nap today is Edmund Kean at Leicester and he fancies Milo Man in the opener to kick off his Daq Multiples.
The Informant was an ironic winner yesterday. Form figures PPP. Not so much of a shock to some, with an SP of 7-1, and something similar could quite easily sprout from the mud at Leicester this afternoon.
The irony is that no informant like myself, working from form analysis, could possibly tip that winner to you.
Tips can only be what ‘should’ win – in the eyes of the analyst – and he must try to tailor his staking plan so that at least one winning bet covers all the others. That’s on a daily basis.
Special bets – bankers, big-race bets, lays – must be staked for a profit in the longer term. That’s what the Daqman column does, and we’re in profit all round at the moment.
12.45 Leicester Not as easy as it looks. Tony McCoy travels to Leicester for the one ride, Ashes House, a winner on the soft at Uttoxeter, when odds on in November but found out under a penalty by the hill at Towcester last month.
He appears to have a huge task to beat Milo Man, whose trainer Evan Williams, ‘thinks the world of him.’
Milo Man ran behind one of the finds of the season, Briar Hill, in last year’s Champion Bumper at the Cheltenham Festival, taken off his feet on the good-to-soft circuit and, in any case, thought afterwards to have been ‘over the top.’
But it was a different story on heavy at Carlisle in November when this future chaser, son of Milan, out of a Roselier mare, won well, if not impressively, over hurdles.
We didn’t know then that he was beating a horse which would run into a place in the French Furze Hurdle at Newcastle behind six times winner Ballyalton and Challow Hurdle third, Oscar Rock.
Hint Of Mint ran well at Wincanton and Uhlan Bute bounced at Cheltenham, running quickly to try to swerve his penalty after an excellent effort at Sandown.
1.50 Leicester Maybe Venetia Williams has had a mud bath built to train her inmates at her Herefords yard. While the top stables shunned the quagmire on Sunday, she turned out in force for Plumpton and had four straight winners. Here she goes again.
After Uhlan Bute’s close up at the front of the market, she has three consecutive forecast favourites, starting in this one with Renard d’Irlande (and I thought the old fox of Ireland was Mouse Morris).
The handicapper didn’t raise the Uttoxeter-winning grey for a modest run at Newbury but the winner, Easter Day, has stepped up to score in class 2 since – was a Graded hurdler – and it isn’t the first time ‘Renard’ has kept high-quality company.
At Cheltenham a year ago, he split the subsequent Listed winner, Vino Griego, and the hat-trick scorer, Battle Group.
But, going all the way back to the start of his chasing career (November 2012), the handicapper insists that he’s made little or no progress (just a 2lb better rating than he started with).
And it doesn’t seem quite right that he races off 127, a pound behind San Telm, who was stone last, beaten nearly 34 lengths, in Renard’s Uttoxeter success in November.
Conversely, Venetia Williams’ runner is well held by Whats Happening, who ran second in that Easter Day race at Newbury, trying to complete a hat-trick.
Muldoon’s Picnic did complete his, but that was only because his nearest rival fell and he clearly didn’t like the soft ground (Huntingdon in October).
Le Reve also took on quality at conditions-race weights when a remote third to Sam Winner and Le Bec at Cheltenham last month. Edmund Kean is an Old Vic and looks well placed for today’s switch to chasing after a Grade-3 third over hurdles. If the handicapper is right about Renard d’Irelande, and Edmund Kean runs to his hurdles rating, he has 7lb in hand of the topweight.
2.55 Leicester This one should be Venetia’s winner. Liam Treadwell lost his irons or Massena would have won on heavy ground at Uttoxeter on the last day of the year.
Chase-debutant Rasheed’s success over hurdles has all been on a sound surface, Un Anjou’s on good to soft or better,and soft ground was put forward as an excuse for Brassbound’s flop at Huntingdon last time.
Islandmagee is another starting out over fences but we can’t be sure of Bin End at this level, aimed too high at Kempton over Christmas.
3.30 Leicester Kilflora drops back to the minimum for the first time since April 2012, and it’s unlikely to suit as he hits 11 years of age. Tony Carroll wins at this meeting and Vedani was out of his depth a grade higher at Cheltenham last time. But has moved stables several times and may be a quirky type.
Kayfton Pete has been five times second since winning on his preferred surface (Market Rasen, good) in a seller last Spring.
Another for Venetia? The grey Santo Thomas likes today’s ground and was back to some semblance of form, depsite having no chance behind Act Of Kalanisi at Ffos Las, his second run back after a lay-off.
But the winner for me is handicap-debutant Toowoomba, who needs further by all accounts, but the deep going should bring his stamina into play and Philip Hobbs has a 40% record in handicap hurdles on the course.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 6.5pts win (nap) EDMUND KEAN (1.50 Leicester)
BET 8.8pts win TOOWOOMBA (3.30 Leicester)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 10pts win on each and 5pts win double MILO MAN (12.45 Leicester) and MASSENA (2.55 Leicester), plus 4 x 1pt win trebles and 1pt acca the same two with EDMUND KEAN (1.50 Leicester) and TOOWOOMBA (3.30 Leicester)
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