PLACE NAP ON HEAVY GROUND: Newbury has survived the weather – Newcastle is off – but the going is pretty bad and Daqman plays a place nap for safety in the feature race, and reckons a novice-hurdle top weight worth laying in the conditions.
WILLIE SAYS HE WAS WRONG: Trainer Willie Mullins admits he was asking too much of Djakadam in the Hennessy Gold Cup. If the horse skips Leopardstown on Sunday, there’s a strong, solid sort in the Grade A to turn to, says Daqman
MARITO ON A SUNDAY WITHOUT DJAKADAM
I’m a Marito man for Sunday. With Willie Mullins’ six-year-old novice, Djakadam likely to wait for the Thyestes Chase at Gowran, the Grade-A at Leopardstown on Sunday is opened up.
In any case, you need a solid, experienced sort for it. Horses aged nine and 10 are eight from nine. So something like the ultra consistent Marito from the top of the handicap.
Top weights have won it three times since 2007, all nine-year-olds, and Marito has had only five chases under Rules over here since coming rom France, among them an unlucky fall when in contention two out at the Cheltenham festival of two years ago. Surrounding that, his form since his Irish debut has been 211322112.
ON TREND FOR A PLACE AT NEWBURY
The Henderson barometer. This is one way of measuring the ground for Home Counties meetings when the going is officially heavy. If it’s very heavy, Nicky stays away; withdraws the lot. If it’s reasonably raceable, he leaves a few in that can cope with the mud.
Newbury, for instance, is just down the road from Seven Barrows and, though he had a barrel load of declarations, has bunged the cork back in for the first two races.
He skips the juvenile (1.10), which he’s won three times since 2005, which leaves Chris Gordon’s penalised Norse Legend as the only heavy-ground winner.
Norse Legend, dropped back to his Plumpton winning trip, looks sure to start favourite, yet is almost impossible to back with one, two, three David Pipe runners against him.
I shall lay Norse Legend partly because he’s giving away 7lb to the field but largely because the horse he beat only narrowly at Plumpton, Rathealy, is a David Pipe.
Henderson and Pipe clash in the novices’ hurdle, which Nicky has also won three times (since 2004). In this race, it’s Henderson who outnumbers his Somerset rival.
And Pipe’s All Force Majeure, a bumper winner at Worcester on good ground in May, seemed not to enjoy heavy ground on his return at Uttoxeter last month and is tongue-tied to help his breathing today.
Which of Pipe’s was best in the opener; which of Henderson’s is best in this? Well, we know from recent experience that, if you back one, you’ll have to save on his stablemate, just in case.
Admiral Miller hasn’t been seen since May and is claimed off; Sugar Baron beat two other Henderson starters when he won at Ascot in November. Well bred, by presenting out of a Be My Native mare.
Far West (1.45) has won three times from four in races of just three or four runners, including over course and distance near the end of the year.
Top Gamble seems the obvious alternative going for the hat-trick, though he didn’t beat much at Wetherby and Warwick and it’s cost him a 12lb rise.
Mountain King won in the mud over hurdles a year ago but this is his first chase, and I’m inclined to an opening position on Citizenship (9.2 on BETDAQ early mouse), whose Venetia Williams yard seems to have heavy ground horses in depth (pun intended), and who looked a natural first time over the bigger obstacle.
The trip was too far that day but it was sensible to give him a chance to prove his jumping, and gain in confidence, in a slower-run race.
Citizenship’s light weight gives him every chance to catch the galloping Top Gamble in this mud. But watch the market. It’s not always a case of trying to pick the winner, but trying to pick the prices – backing or laying more than one horse – so that you win the race and end up in front.
2.50 Newbury (Harwell Trophy) Venetia has another mud-lover in this, Aachen, who went all the way North for the Kelso Champion Chase on his seasonal debut, though he’s won only small-field races over fences.
With Smiles Fior Miles up 16lb for back-to-back wins in November, he reverted to novice company last time but made his usual jumping errors. Russe Blanc is a once-a-year winner, who can’t be relied up on to keep his form.
Bob Tucker is only a novice but a good jumper, judged on his chasing debut at Sandown. Tony McCoy takes over on another novice, Premier Portrait. First-time visor helped him on the last day but this is a much better race.
But today, the introduction of visors could help On Trend, 9.8 in the BETDAQ orange, as I write. On a line through Bertie Boru in their races here at Newbury (On Trend’s seasonal debut) and at Sandown against the smart Unioniste, he is coming to hand has nothing to fear from top-weight Ohio Gold
Nick Gifford has started the year with two winners from three runners. Jockey Tom Cannon has won four, two for Gifford. Place nap, then.
DAQMAN’S BETS (stake 1 to 9 for strength: 10 points is a banker)
LAY 4pts NORSE LEGEND (1.10 Newbury)
BET 2pts win CITIZENSHIP (1.45 Newbury)
BET 8pts win SUGAR BARON and 2pts win ADMIRAL MILLER (2.15 Newbury)
BET 8pts win NANCY ASTOR (2.25 Lingfield)
BET 3pts win and 6pts place (place nap) ON TREND (2.50 Newbury)
BET 4pts win on each POUR LA VICTOIRE and PEARL NOIR (3.35 Lingfield)
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