DAQMAN LIVING THE DREAM AGAIN? Daqman has had a spell out of form but was back in profit yesterday (16.20 points on the day) with Jameel (WON 100-30) and Dream Wild (WON 1-1).
THE DAQMAN MANIFESTO: BETTING TACTICS: It comes at the start of Guineas week and at a time when he is streamlining his betting tactics. After his seven golden rules (see yesterday in the Archive), he now sets out his strategy for the Flat season.
They say that horses make fools of men. I’d say that men do a pretty good job of making fools of themselves without the aid of horses!
If any one asks about the state of your betting bank – are you winning? – you could give them an answer which is irrefutable because it isn’t an answer.
Example: It is my general policy not to comment regarding ongoing betting investigations (repeat seven times during a quick rubdown with the Racing Post).
But, in the quiet of the night, after a hard days betting at Southwell or Kelso, the punter really should confess to himself his own foibles and errors, and pull no punches.
The Punter’s Confession is simplest of all, hurts no one, and alleviates the pain in his own pocket. He knows the rules. Breaks them regularly. And then blames the horses.
He should blame himself, as I do now. It is not my general policy regarding ongoing form investigations to admit where I’ve gone wrong but here goes:
I lost my huge advantage on the lays. I chickened out of my banker sequence and stopped at five. I had a bad first day at Cheltenham, so dropped my jackpot bets.. just before they started winning.
Conclusion: Our general policy – yours and mine – must be nerve, consistency, and often to oppose what is expected by the mass of punters (we call that ‘the favourite’) and, most importantly, not to change our plans without proper consideration.
However, changing your horses in midstream is allowed: it’s called betting on BETDAQ, where you can change your mind and leap on any other horse at any time up to the running of a race, even after it’s started, back and lay, devising your own ‘book’ of bets to put yourself on the winning side.
There’s no way I can do that over my cornflakes. I can only assess what I see at the time. It is the lot of this column to take ‘first position’ on a race. So rules are vital. New readers start here:
BETS My bets are staked to win 20 points at the time of selection so that you know the BETDAQ offers I took and you know at a glance how much I have won or lost on any given day.
NAPS AND JACKPOTS I keep the same target for my naps (win 20) but will raise the stakes to win more – jackpot level – where I think I have found big value.
BANKER NAPS I will also raise the stake- to 20 points maximum – if I think the horse is a banker. My bankers so far this year have been: Chatterbox (WON 5-4), Simonsig (WON 1-7), Sprinter Sacre (WON 1-4), Annie Power (WON 4-11), Toronado (WON 8-11).
Five out of five. Strike rate good but has to be with SPs like that. I could stake the bet, like the others, at BETDAQ morning offers but, at short prices, they beat SP hands down, so it wouldn’t be fair to the reader to claim even money or tips on, knowing the bookies will force the price down to long odds on.
BANKER LAYS Here the strike rate is vital. Over the years, I reckon that, when laying favourites, 72% is required for a reasonable profit. Up to the end of February I was hitting 81% (13 out of 16) and my lays profit recently reached 100 points for the year.
That was achieved at short prices for the win – almost all favourites – or, when laying for a place, at similar short odds in the place-lay green. Then I blew the profits laying at a big price. I won’t do that again in a hurry.
In future, I shall declare my opposition to any horse as a lay, but shall maintain my 72% target, attacking favourites, with declared Banker Lays.
VALUE Value is where you find a bet at offers bigger than they should be. You must be careful because some offers are big because the horse isn’t ready to win, isn’t ‘expected’ that day or is being outperformed in the market by other stronger fancies.
On BETDAQ we already have value in many races for the simple reason that the prices (represented by the offers) add up to much less than you normally find at SP.
I’m writing this at 9.30 a.m and, to prove my point, I opened the very first race at Lingfield: BETDAQ offers in the orange added up to only 103% (total probability) in a commission-free race. Double-bonus value, then, when the first race at Lingfield yesterday totaled 113% at SP!
I shall mark these punter-friendly, Betdaq-value races when I make my selections but, more than that, I shall look for races where I can increase the value in the bet.
GOLD VALUE These gold-value races will be races where the total probability is very low (like the 103% in the first at Lingfield) but additionally:
a) Stats suggest that some in the field have no chance
b) Conditions of the race, the draw or some other circumstance – the going? – also seem to eliminate some runners
c) the official race ratings are misleading
d) Most importantly, I will try to find a false favourite so that, even if I can’t lay that favourite, I shall be betting in a market where the odds are inflated because his price can be removed from the list (see yesterday’s example).
JACKPOT GOLD If a jackpot bet also falls in to this ‘gold’ value category, I shall increase the stakes still further.
HORSES TO FOLLOW Agent Allison, Cristoforo Colombo, Garswood, Hot Snap, Mars, Mutajally, String Theory, Tickled Pink, Time And Place and Toronado.
ANTE-POST WIN-40 JACKPOT: BET 3pts win CRISTOFORO COLOMBO (14.0 for 2,000 Guineas, Newmarket, May 4)
WIN-30 JACKPOT BET 0.9pts win AGENT ALLISON (33.0 for 1,000 Guineas, Newmarket, May 5).
TOMORROW: That’s all folks! I shall try out the new plan tomorrow, and – with any necessary refinements – it will be in full swing for the Guineas weekend.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 6.25pts win (nap) CLAIM (3.10 Yarmouth)
BET 5pts win KING OF JAZZ and 1.9pts win (stakes saver) GALICIAN (3.40 Yarmouth)
BET 5.4pts win ROANNE (4.20 Bath)
BET 1.9pts win and place DREAMS OF GLORY (5.20 Bath)
BET 1pt win and place LUCETTE (6.45 Worcester)
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