5-2 WINNER MAKES IT FOUR NAPS UP OUT OF SIX: Daqman landed his fourth nap from the last six – two of them bankers – when Tony McCoy scored on Travis County (WON 5-2) at Sedgefield yesterday. Daqman’s best bets have form figures of 111231:

WON 5-2 TRAVIS COUNTY Dec 3
3rd 2-1 SECRET EDGE Dec 2
2nd 11-2 HERDSMAN Dec 1
WON 3-1 BALLYALTON Nov 30
WON 8-11 WONDERFUL CHARM (banker) Nov 29
WON 1-2 MILAN BOUND (banker) Nov 28

THREE OUT OF FOUR OUTSIDERS PLACE: Daqman made a profit of 22 points yesterday with two winners and another gambled-on place for his new Outsider Of The Day. Offers in three successful days out of four were 19.0, 14.0 and 10.0:

2nd 15-2 NEXT HIGHT Dec 3 (from 14.0 on BETDAQ)
3rd 9-2 PROSPERITY SQUARE Dec 1 (from 10.0 on BETDAQ)
WON 14-1 TATENEN Nov 30 (from 19.0 on BETDAQ)

BETDAQ RACES AT KEMPTON THIS EVENING: DAQMAN previews all four races sponsored by BETDAQ this evening and goes nap with the Ex Factor.


SECRETS OF THE FORM BOOK: SEEK OUT COURAGE AND ACCELERATION

I know there are two audiences, Flat and Jumps. But I say to both: read the Form Book, and that includes this year’s Flat results NOW ahead of next season, starting in March.

There are hours of study required, with profit as the motive. You can get ahead of the Flat game by searching now for:

The handicap trainers. Who won more than their fair share of handicaps in 2013 (check out 2012 as well, if you have time)? How did these particular trainers win them? And at what prices?

What was the sequence of events leading up to success? Had the horse been improving, win after win (like Sir Mark Prescott’s of old)? Had it been very skillfully placed to get the right trip on the right day at the right weight, brought carefully to concert pitch (Tim Easterby)? Or was the horse trained at home to appear from ‘nowhere’ (Candy, Fanshawe)?

Which stable holds on to horses of potential and improves them late in life, no hurry, no worries, scaling the heights between handicaps and pattern racing at a late age? Sir Michael Stoute, of course.

Jumps? Just the same. Take a look at Henry Daly’s clever prepping for the middle-of-the-way handicaps, David Pipe’s sweet placing of horses at the foot of major hurdles and chase handicaps, so cleverly that they have enough in hand to run the field into the ground.

Check out Jonjo O’Neill, how he strengthens them until they grow into the right slot in a Cheltenham Festival or an Aintree handicap.

Perhaps the sweetest of all is to watch Sue and Harvey Smith take ‘nothing’ material, apply their horsecraft and improve an ordinary racehorse to the winning post of the Grand National.

Fortune favours the brave. If you haven’t much time, this lesson in winner-finding doesn’t take much effort.

Look through the form for the words ‘game’ and ‘courage’. They are rarely applied to a result but, if followed, produce big-odds winners when such a horse is left alone until he is fresh and well placed.

I used to follow these horses blind, winning year on year, until Raceform seemed to stop using those words. I complained (yes, twas I, James).

Watch the races yourself. Don’t be tempted by horses that win by a street. Look for those tenacious, game finishes. They say that no champion is worth his salt until he’s had a fight on his hands.

Horses that can quicken. But the horse you want on your side most is not the speed horse, the winner by a distance, nor even the courageous if he can’t do what all serious winners (above class 3) must almost always do. Quicken.

Ideally, on the Flat, you want a horse who’s asleep in the parade-ring; almost ambling, saved up during the race; then produces his turn of foot at the business end.

Over jumps, perhaps the single most effective animal for your winter-game horses-to-follow list is one who can jump out of, and quicken in, mud.

As well as looking for the words ‘brave’ and ‘courageous’ – or similar – mark down those horses whose end-of-race action is described as something like ‘quickened run-in’ (particularly on bad ground). Not many can do that.

Led and led again. Finally, here’s the kind of phrase which helps you spot a horse with a ton in hand. Consider these racereader comments:

‘Led early, settled midfield, led again last quarter mile’ or this one, ‘led five out until three out; led again after the last, narrowly.’

Don’t be frightened of that word ‘narrowly’. Remember: easy winners beat easy horses. Narrow winners have to time it right, or show courage. And they don’t frighten the handicapper half as much!


FOUR BETDAQ RACES AT KEMPTON PARK: GO NAP ON EX

It’s another busy BETDAQ night at Kempton with four sponsored races including an interesting maiden fillies race which opens the card at 3.50.

3:50 £500 Free Bets At Betdaq E.B.F. Maiden Fillies’ Stakes (2yo, Class 5, 6f, 7 runners) The 10 race field is down to seven but don’t forget on BETDAQ it’s still three places on the place market. We have the usual punting dilemma of balancing the limited form against potential of the debutants and there are two interesting newcomers on paper here Mirror (Ed Dunlop) and Garraun (Jeremy Noseda) who cost 58,000 guineas as a foal, has a good pedigree and is already a market positive on BETDAQ. Current favourite Sushu Sugartown sets a fair standard judged on her debut fifth here. She played about before entering the stalls and is likely to put in an improved run here and the step back in trip may also help but I’ll chance the newcomer Garraun being good enough.

4:20 Betdaq – The Sports Betting Exchange Maiden Stakes (3yo+, Class 5, 6f, 8 runners) Ex Ex went into my notebook and countless others no doubt when a good third on debut at Lingfield last week behind Assertive Agent. He got better as the race progressed and there was plnety of support for him in the market too going off the 5/4 joint favourite. He cost 260,000 guineas as a yearling, has already been gelded, and looks the nap on the card tonight at just over evens.

4:50 Winners Are Welcome At Betdaq Nursery (2yo, Class 5, 1m, 8 runners) We have the ‘dead eight’ running here so might be an idea to look for a win and place option. Captain Swift was attracting a little early interest in the market and it’s easy to see why. He certainly seems much happier on the all-weather than the turf and has put in two better runs recently at Lingfield. In the latest he finished strongly having been hampered and gave the impression that he could be well handicapped and also the switch back to a mile here will suit.

6:20 Betdaq 1st UK Race Commission Free Handicap (London Middle Distance Series Qualifier) (3yo+, Class 3, 1m 3f, 7 runners) John Gosden struck with a double here on Monday and his Nautilus can run well here off top weight. This looks easier than the class 2 handicap he competed in at Lingfield last time and is still capable of finding further improvement.

DAQMAN’S BETS:
BET 5pts win GARRAUN (3.50 Kempton)
BET 5pts win EX EX (nap) (4.20 Kempton)
BET 1pts win and place (Outsider Of The Day) CAPTAIN SWIFT (4.50 Kempton)
BET 5pts win NAUTILUS (6.20 Kempton)


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