SIX DAYS LEFT OF THE FLAT SEASON: Though the season ends at Doncaster on November 8, there are only six days with Flat (turf) racing left, including today at Nottingham. Here’s Daqman’s current state of play:
NAPS: 17 out of 25
(form: 1111141231311114112113211)
BANKERS: 10 out of 11
CHALLENGE: Daqman 68, Pricewise 31
BULL’S-EYE BETS: 200 points profit
BREEDERS’ CUP PREVIEW: TODAY Daqman checks out the potential stars of two Friday races. TOMORROW: Look out for his stats guide to Saturday’s big day at Santa Anita.
QUALIFY SHOULD HANDLE SANTA ANITA
QUALIFY Ladbrokes seem to have one ear to the ground at Ballydoyle and, while most British firms range from 11-2 to 7-1 about Qualify for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (Turf), the magic sign go 9-2.
Qualify was less than four lengths off the lead in the Moyglare at the Curragh, then won a Group 3 there. But key to her chance on Dirt may be the way this big filly quickened off the Dundalk Polytrack in August to win from the front by more than five lengths.
CLOSE HATCHES Another shorter shot with Ladbrokes than with most firms is another filly, Close Hatches, aptly named by First Defence out of a Rising Tornado (Storm Cat) mare.
This is a first foal but English racegoers know one of the sons of First Defence, Dundonnell, who ran up to Toronado in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster.
Close Hatches doesn’t appear to be ground dependent, having won back-to-back Grade 1s, at Belmont on fast and Saratoga on sloppy.
RIVER HAD BEEN PUT IN MUCH DEEPER
2.50 Worcester Philip Hobbs, who has made a brilliant start to the jumps season, including old-timer Wishfull Thinking in a hat-trick on Saturday, thinks a lot of the nicely-named River Deep (by Mountain High out of Testaway).
He holds him in such high regard, in fact, that he entered River Deep for the prestigious Persian War novices’ hurdle at Chepstow, but missed the cut.
Though he gives 7lb all round in today’s race, this is only class-4 and, unless there is a dark horse hidden in this small field, the short offers on BETDAQ this morning seem justified.
River Deep would be shorter still, but his form is all on heavy ground. However, Hobbs is convinced that today’s officially sounder surface will be fine, and there’s always plenty of give in those Worcester water-meadows.
3.00 Nottingham The principal contenders here are the Cape Cross colt Golden Horn and Storm The Stars, who is by Sea The Stars (by Cape Cross).
The generations often converge in racing, and this pair are also well heeled on the dam’s side, Golden Horn’s dam related to Rebecca Sharp and Hidden Hope, Storm The Stars’ mother to Marvellous, Giant’s Cauyseway and Gleneagles.
Storm The Stars should win it on experience, caught close him in a Newmarket maiden by the subsequent Racing Post Trophy runner-up.
3.30 Nottingham Stalls 8, 9, 10, 12 have won this in recent double-figure fields and, with John Gosden having just had a spell of five winners out of eight, he saddles Dubai Star from gate 7.
The three-year-old has won only his maiden but it won’t take much of an improver to dispose of this lot at class-4 level, and Dubai Star misses Newmarket on Friday for this easier task.
4.00 Nottingham Gary Moore does well at the meeting but there is nothing in his form to suggest that Civil War can win when fresh from a long absence since his Spring success.
Irish-trained Dara Tango has to be feared, if he runs again after being awarded a race at Catterick yesterday, the gamble foiled by a nose but given the race because he was carried across the track.
Meetings Man has got away with only a 7lb rise for three wins since June at around today’s trip. The handicapper has problems with such a horse, who wins narrowly, doing only what he has to do. But today’s conditions are different.
Hidden Justice, down in trip here (holds Deepsand, Montaff and Hot Spice on York form) is one I have in mind for hurdles this winter.
But there’s another goodish three-year-old here, dropped two grades and up two furlongs. That’s what Nabatean needs, if his recent form is any guide.
DAQMAN’S BETS (all bets staked to win 20 points)
BET 15pts win RIVER DEEP (2.50 Worcester)
BET 10pts win DUBAI STAR (3.30 Nottingham)
BET 10pts win (nap) NABATEAN (4.00 Nottingham)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 4 x 1pt win trebles and 1pt acca the above three with STORM THE STARS (3.00 Nottingham)
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